NBA DFS Picks Today (11/6): DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleepers
We’ve got a weird NBA schedule to begin the week. Monday brings a massive 12-gamer with a little bit of everything. Tuesday is Election Day, which has become a leaguewide day off over the past few years. Then we’re back on Wednesday with a 14-game behemoth of a slate.
As always, we’ll do our best to break tonight’s docket down from every angle. This article is meant to provide a briefer bird’s-eye view of the slate. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis, sign up for RG Premium.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Value
PG Fred VanVleet ($7,500)
The Rockets beat the Kings fairly easily on Saturday night, and the two teams will square off again in Houston this evening. Point guard is, predictably, an incredibly stacked position with 12 games on the slate, so ownership shouldn’t be a major concern. Fred VanVleet was grading out as one of the best plays in all formats in this exact same spot on Saturday, and DraftKings responded to his big outing by…not budging his $7,500 salary at all.
VanVleet didn’t shoot particularly well in that game – just 7-for-22 from the field – but that’s been something of a theme with him over the years. Fortunately, erratic shooting hasn’t hurt his overall fantasy efficiency. VanVleet is up to his usual tricks in his first year in Houston, contributing 1.03 DK FP/min on decent 24.5% usage. VanVleet’s 35.2% assist rate puts him in the top 10 in the league, as well.
The minutes stand out, too. VanVleet has played at least 36 minutes in 3 of the 5 games this season. The only games in which he didn’t reach that threshold were blowout losses. Tonight’s game features a tight 1.5-point spread, so we shouldn’t have to worry about things getting out of hand.
VanVleet is too cheap for the role, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he got up into the $8,500-$9,000 range before long. Take advantage of the discount while you still can.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Value
PG Reggie Jackson ($4,200)
Jamal Murray will miss tonight’s game for Denver, so Reggie Jackson appears likely to draw a spot start in his place. Reggie started the second half after Murray went out the other night, so it’s a logical assumption.
So far this season with Murray off the floor, Jackson is averaging exactly a fantasy point per minute on healthy enough 22.3% usage. We’ve got him projected for 30 minutes here, and there’s room for upside on that depending on how the game goes. Jackson won’t be quite as featured offensively as Murray is, but he’s awfully cheap on FanDuel at only $4,200. On DK, comparatively, he’s not even projecting as a positive value at $5,500.
Cheap value is typically harder to find on FD, which makes Jackson an easy plug-and-play in all formats tonight.
NBA DFS Sleepers
PF Keegan Murray ($6,500 DK/FD)
Kings-Rockets actually has the lowest total on the entire slate (218.5), but that doesn’t mean we can’t find more DFS goodness here. Keegan Murray was horrific in the first game of this doubleheader, as he knocked down just 3 of his 12 shots and whimpered his way to 7 points, 2 rebounds, and an assist in what turned into a lopsided defeat.
However, he still played 33 minutes. The minutes have been huge all season for him. He’s logged at least 33 minutes in each of the last 4 games, and we’ve seen him hovering around 40 on occasion. Murray’s usage rate is down around 19% for the season, and he’s one of the few Kings that hasn’t seen a huge boost in that regard with De’Aaron Fox off the floor. Fox, for what it’s worth, is questionable again tonight after missing the last game.
As of this writing, we have Murray projected for about 6% ownership on DraftKings, while he’s coming in around 15% on FD. He’s an easy midrange play with some upside in what should be a competitive game.
SF/PF DeMar DeRozan ($7,200 DK, $7,500 FD)
The Bulls are off to a fairly disastrous start, so we’ll see if they decide to blow their stale, veteran core to smithereens between now and the trade deadline. In the meantime, they do draw a favorable matchup at home tonight. Chicago is actually favored (-4) over a Jazz team that comes into play ranked a dismal 27th in defensive efficiency.
DeMar DeRozan isn’t off to the best individual start, but his usage (27.4%) is right around where we saw it last season. He’s another guy struggling in the shooting department early on, but this is a nice get-right spot against one of the NBA’s poorest defenses.
We were routinely paying upwards of $8,000-$9,000 for DeMar over the past few years, but tonight he’s down in the mid-$7,000s on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you opt for a balanced build, DeRozan grades out nicely as a lower-owned GPP play.