NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 4/4/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-04-04 22:47:47

With less than a week to go in the regular season, every NBA DFS slate is going to be more wild than the previous one, as eliminated teams keep shutting down more and more starters. The Eastern conference playoff teams are pretty much set but there is some seeding that could change, while the Western conference is much more competitive as there are five teams separated by two wins currently ranked 5th-9th, and OKC/DAL/UTA are still battling for that final play-in tournament spot. We have a massive 13 game slate today as no one played yesterday, so we have all the injury reports which are loaded with guys resting and injuries to monitor up until lock.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG.

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Jaylen Brown is questionable for Boston, and if out I’d consider Jayson Tatum a top play of the slate in a projected close game with Philly. Sam Hauser is a top candidate to start for Brown. (Update: Brown is OUT)

• Trae Young is questionable for Atlanta, so Dejounte Murray would become a top play if he sits. Bogdanovic would likely start at SG with Murray sliding to PG. (Update: Trae is OUT)

• Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable for Minnesota, so Kyle Anderson would start at PF if he sits, and Gobert would have a higher ceiling. Jaylen Nowell and Austin Rivers are also questionable, but their minutes would just be absorbed by McLaughlin and Alexander-Walker.

• LeBron James is questionable for the Lakers, but I’d just treat him as probable as the Lakers could still avoid the play-in tournament with a couple more wins and LBJ is on two days rest. D’Angelo Russell is now questionable, so Dennis Schroder could draw the start at PG if he sits.

• Lauri Markkanen is questionable for Utah, so Simone Fontecchio would likely start if he sits, and I’d consider Horton-Tucker and Olynyk top plays as they are already without Kessler. Collin Sexton is questionable to return from his hamstring injury, and if available he’d take minutes away from Dunn. (Update: Markkanen is OUT, Sexton is IN)

• OG Anunoby and Gary Trent are questionable for Toronto, and if both are out we could see Dowtin or Flynn start at SG. TOR is currently 14.5 point favorites against Charlotte, so they could be extra cautious and sit anyone with any type of injury to prepare for a playoff run. Precious Achiuwa is also questionable, and his minutes would just be handled by Boucher and Koloko if out. (Update: Anunoby is IN, Trent is likely OUT)

• Dennis Smith Jr. is questionable for Charlotte, so Theo Maledon would continue to get most of the PG minutes if he remains out. Bouknight and Simmons would be the available backup PGs. (Update: DSJ is OUT)

• Watford, Reddish, Thybulle, Knox, and Butler are all questionable for Portland, so we could be in a situation where Portland has a player or two “active” just so they technically have eight available and don’t forfeit, but still go with just a 6 or 7 man healthy rotation. (Update: Watford, Reddish, and Thybulle are OUT)

• Delon Wright is now questionable with an illness for Washington, so Jordan Goodwin could be looking at a start and would be a top value play of the slate. (Update: Wright is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Grayson Allen, Jevon Carter, & Khris Middleton are out for Milwaukee, so Pat Connaughton will likely start alongside either Matthews, Ingles, or Beauchamp at SG/SF.

• Washington will be down Beal, Kuzma, Porzingis, Avdija and Morris today, so look for Delon Wright (if active) and Johnny Davis to start in the backcourt, while Kispert will start at SF, and Anthony Gill is a candidate to start at PF for Avdija. (Update: Wright is OUT)

• Marvin Bagley joins the laundry list of players out for Detroit, so Eugene Omoruyi will likely start at PF and is a solid value option with little depth behind him.

• Isaac Okoro remains out for Cleveland, so Dean Wade could start again like last game, or they may go with LeVert or Stevens.

• Charlotte is down Rozier, Hayward, Oubre, and Washington, so look for McGowens, Mykhailiuk, and Thor to continue to start at SG/SF/PF. Mark Williams is now doubtful so Nick Richards will start at center with Kai Jones backing him up.

• Portland seems to lose multiple players every game, and today they could be literally be looking at a possible seven man rotation if all the Q guys sit (they just signed Justin Minaya for another body available today). Skyler Mays will continue to start at PG and be a top value play, while Shaedon Sharpe is thriving as the top scorer and has huge upside today. Drew Eubanks remains a solid play for the price, and Shaq Harrison or Jabari Walker could become top value plays if either end up starting. Check out our No House Advantage promo code for new signups, where I like betting the under 39.5 pts+rebs+asts line for Morant today as Memphis could rest guys early with a likely blowout on hand.

• Robert Williams is out for Boston on the front end of tomorrow’s b2b, and De’Andre Hunter remains out for Atlanta so Saddiq Bey should continue to start and be a strong value option.

• Walker Kessler has been shut down for the season with a concussion, so we’ll likely see either Azubuike, Samanic, or Jones start at center today.

• The Spurs are without Vassell, Sochan, Collins, Johnson and Langford today. This leaves Bates-Diop as pretty much a guaranteed starter, while Graham and Branham are top candidates to start at SG/SF, and Sandro Mamukelashvili will likely start at center.

• Dillon Brooks is likely out so David Roddy is a strong candidate to start, while Konchar and Kennard will help at SF too.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Skylar Mays ($5,000) is probably the safest value play of the slate as he’s seen 30 minutes in b2b games while going for over 26 FP in each. Today he could push for 35+ minutes if a lot of the questionable Blazers are out, and he’s just too cheap for someone with a 5x value floor and extremely safe minutes.

• Svi Mykhailiuk ($5,400) is another starter benefiting with a ton of injuries around him, and his price just hasn’t gone up enough to consider fading in cash games. He’s seen 33+ minutes five straight games and has gone for over 40 FP in two of his last three, and draws the same matchup against Toronto in which he went for 41.3 FP last game.

• Utah is still fighting for a play-in spot, and Kelly Olynyk ($6,600) will be looking at a huge role today with Kessler and Markkanen both out. I’m expecting him to be popular but I just can’t fade someone with 40+ FP upside playing in a must-win game for under $7k.

• Tre Jones ($5,800), Malaki Branham ($5,500), and Keita Bates-Diop ($5,100) are all solid value options for the Spurs, as all three should see 30+ minutes as starters and will have to carry a lot of the offense with Johnson, Vassell, Collins, and Sochan out.

• Detroit keeps losing forwards as Bagley is now out, so Eugene Omoruyi ($4,500) will step in to a larger role as a likely starter, and is a great SF value play coming off a 28+ FP game in 27 minutes.

• Jordan Goodwin ($5,200), Corey Kispert ($5,000), and Johnny Davis ($4,200) all remain solid p/$ plays for a Wizards team with nothing to play for, so they will all have free reign to chuck up as many shots as they want especially with Wright & Avdija also out now.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Skylar Mays ($5,100) remains my favorite p/$ play, while Svi Mykhailiuk ($6,200) is a bit pricier then FD but still went down $400 in price on DK from last game and is in play for cash games.

• Jordan Goodwin ($4,000) is silly cheap and will be a primary scorer for Washington today and is close to a cash game lock for me. Johnny Davis ($4,200) is also still too cheap for a projected starter after he went for 29 FP last game and should see similar minutes today.

• Kelly Olynyk ($6,500) also remains a top play at that price, and Saddiq Bey ($4,800) comes at an $800 discount to FD so I prefer using him on DK as the likely starter for Hunter coming off three straight games of 30+ FP.

• Eugene Omoruyi ($4,400) is still a great price on DK and can be used at either PF or C on DK, so you can pair him with Drew Eubanks ($5,800) if you want to go cheap in the frontcourt today.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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