NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 4/5/23
Eight games on today’s slate, and we’re currently waiting on a ton of injury reports as there are 12 teams on a back-to-back. It’s going to be a very fluid slate as far as who’s available and who the best plays are as the injury reports trickle out throughout the day, but we should have most of the news before lock as the majority of games start at 7:30PM or earlier.
The Nets are still fighting to avoid the play-in tournament in the East, while five teams in the West are still battling for the 5-9 seeds, and three of them play today (LAC/LAL/NOP). The Mavericks are in desperation mode as the current 11 seed one game back from OKC in 10th, so Dallas should give their main guys a ton of minutes in a great matchup with SAC.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- LeBron and AD are questionable after playing 38+ minutes in OT yesterday, so Hachimura would likely start for AD and Troy Brown for LBJ if either sit.
- RJ Barrett is questionable with an illness, and with Randle & Brunson already out, we would likely see Hart join the starting lineup if Barrett sits. Quickley, Grimes, and Toppin are already strong plays and would be close to must plays if Barrett sits too, although there is some risk they don’t see big minutes as the Knicks have nothing to play for having already locked up a first round playoff matchup with Cleveland. (Update: Barrett is OUT)
- Eric Gordon and Marcus Morris are questionable for LAC, so Norman Powell would likely start if Gordon sits, while Morris’ minutes would be handled by Batum and Covington.
- Myles Turner is listed as questionable, but we’re treating him as doubtful as the Pacers have nothing to play for and it would be silly to risk further injury in a meaningless game. (Update: Turner is OUT)
- Tatum, Smart, and Pritchard are questionable for Boston, so Brogdon or Hauser would likely start if Smart sits, while Grant Williams would likely start if Tatum sits. Jaylen Brown would be a top play of the slate if Tatum is out while White and Brogdon would be much more appealing plays if Smart sits. (Update: Tatum, Smart, and Pritchard are OUT)
- Dorian Finney-Smith is questionable for Brooklyn, so Royce O’Neale would likely start at PF for him. (Update: Finney-Smith is OUT)
- Young and Bogdanovic are questionable for Atlanta, so Murray and Bey could become top plays if both sit, while Holiday and Griffin would get bumps in time as well. (Update: Young is IN, Bogdanovic is OUT)
- Xavier Tillman is questionable for Memphis, and if out I’d expect Santi Aldama to start with Jaren Jackson moving to center.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Giannis is now out for the Bucks, so Bobby Portis should start and is a top play. Jrue and Middleton are also top plays now getting big usage bumps.
- Obi Toppin should continue to start for Randle, and with Brunson out Immanuel Quickley will almost certainly start at PG.
- Nwora should continue to start for Haliburton, and with Turner likely still out we’ll see either Jackson or Smith start at center for Indiana.
- The Pistons went with Duren and Wiseman starting in the frontcourt yesterday and may continue that today, while the Bucks will remain without Grayson Allen but will get back Khris Middleton who rested yesterday. Isaiah Livers is likely out so Omoyuri will likely start at SF for DET.
- The Wizards will have the same available group as yesterday with Kuzma, Beal, Wright, Morris, and Porzingis all out again. Goodwin, Davis, and Nunn are all top plays of the slate and remain too cheap.
- Saddiq Bey should continue to start with Hunter out, and Robert Williams will likely start for Boston with Horford doubtful for rest on the b2b.
- Morant and Kennard are doubtful for Memphis, so Tyus Jones will likely start at PG and is a top value play of the slate, while Kennard’s time will be absorbed by Roddy and Konchar.
- Alex Caruso is out for Chicago, so Williams will likely start and White/Dosunmu will see a bump in minutes.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Jordan Goodwin ($5,500), Johnny Davis ($4,200), and Kendrick Nunn ($4,500) are all top plays for cash games as the Wizards are in full tank mode and are extremely thin at guard with Wright, Beal and Morris still out. Corey Kispert ($5,700) will continue to see big minutes with Kuzma, Porzingis, and Avdija out, while Jay Huff ($3,500) could be a great punt play again coming off a 36.8 FP game in 26 minutes yesterday.
- The Nets are still playing to win, so Spencer Dinwiddie ($8,000) should be a very solid play at a great price. His opponent Detroit remains decimated with injuries, so guys like Jaden Ivey ($7,100) and Jalen Duren ($6,500) will continue to see big minutes and are high-upside plays today.
- I’m keeping Austin Reaves ($6,300), Dennis Schroder ($5,200), and Rui Hachimura ($4,000) on my cash game radar as all three would be very busy if AD and/or LBJ get ruled out, along with possibly Russell too.
- With Morant likely out, Tyus Jones ($5,800) is now a top value play of the slate, while Desmond Bane ($7,800) has a much higher ceiling and is in play too.
- With Giannis now out, Jrue Holiday ($7,700), Khris Middleton ($7,900), and Bobby Portis ($6,700) are all top plays now.
- Some other guys that remain very strong p/$ plays include Jordan Nwora ($5,600), Bennedict Mathurin ($5,700), Obi Toppin ($5,900), Ivica Zubac ($5,700), Keegan Murray ($5,700), and Harrison Barnes ($5,200).
Looking at DraftKings:
- I’m starting my cash game lineup with the core of Jordan Goodwin ($4,700), Jalen Duren ($5,100), Johnny Davis ($4,800), and Obi Toppin ($5,100). All four are just too cheap given the 30+ minutes they will likely ass see as projected starters, and all four have 35+ FP upside today.
- Kendrick Nunn ($3,800) and Jay Huff ($3,200) remain solid extreme value plays if you need more savings, while James Wiseman ($5,300), Isaiah Jackson ($4,400), and Mitchell Robinson ($5,400) are other cheap centers to consider.
- Spencer Dinwiddie ($8,000) remains a top spend up and I like pairing him with Mikal Bridges ($8,600) as both have easy 45+ FP upside against a Detroit. Immanuel Quickley ($7,800) also has huge upside at the guard spots with Brunson and Randle out. Check out our No House Advantage bonus offer for new signups, and I like betting the over on Bridges’ line of 34.5 pts+rebs+asts there today.
- With Morant likely out, Tyus Jones ($5,900) is now a top value play of the slate, while Desmond Bane ($8,400) has a much higher ceiling and is in play too.
- With Giannis now out, Jrue Holiday ($8,800) and Bobby Portis ($6,600) are top plays now.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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