NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 4/6/23
Only four days left of regular season DFS NBA, and even with just five games on tap today, it’s still going to be a wild one.
OKC has the most motivation today as they are battling with Dallas for the 10-seed and final spot in the play in tournament, so guys like SGA and Jalen Williams are top priorities for me. Denver and Phoenix have clinched the 1 and 4 seeds, so we’ll likely see most if not all of Denver’s starters sit this one out, while the Suns likely won’t give regulars big minutes. Utah is still alive for a chance at the play in tournament and will be motivated to win today.
In the East, Philly is locked in to the 3-seed so all their regular starters are risky plays with likely limited minutes today. The Heat still have a slim chance at the 6 seed if they can win out and the Nets lose their last two games, so they are a team to target in DFS today as their starters should see normal minutes.
Cleveland is locked in to the 4 seed and are resting all their starters today so plenty of value to be had there, while ORL, POR, and SAS, are all planning their offseason vacations and should be looking to give big minutes to their younger players now.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Denver’s entire starting lineup is questionable today, and with nothing to play for I’d assume all or most of them will end up out. Jackson, Braun, Brown and Green would almost certainly start if all the starters sit, while either Cancar, Jordan or Bryant would likely be the 5th starter. (Update: Jokic and Murray are OUT)
- Sharpe, Watford, and Reddish are questionable for Portland, and with nothing to play for it seems like at least a couple if not all three will end up out. Shaq Harrison could start if Sharpe is out while Mays would be an even better play than he already is, while Jeenathan Williams would likely start again for Watford. (Update: Sharpe is OUT)
- Maxey, Tucker, and Melton are questionable for Philly, and with their playoff seed locked in, I’d expect them to take the cautious approach on all three and potentially rest a couple other starters. Shake Milton would likely start if Maxey and Melton sit, while Tucker’s starting spot would be taken by either McDaniels or House most likely.
- Johnson and Langford are questionable for the Spurs, and if both end up they would have just 9 players available. Barlow or Champagnie would likely start if Keldon sits, while Langford’s time would be absorbed by all the available guards/wings.
- Lu Dort is questionable for OKC, and it would take a lot for him to sit this game out as OKC is highly motivated to win. If he does end up out I’d expect either Joe or Wiggins to start at SF, while SGA, Giddey, and Jalen would all get slight usage bumps. (Update: Dort is IN)
- Horton-Tucker is now questionable, and if out I’d consider Agbaji and Olynyk top plays getting big usage bumps. Dunn and Samanic would be more appealing plays too.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- With the Cavs resting all their starters along with LeVert, we’ll likely see a starting lineup of Rubio/Osman/Stevens/Wade/Lopez. They could go with Neto over Rubio, start Merrill at SG, or go with Diakite at center over Lopez too, but whoever does start will be the safer value plays from CLE today.
- Orlando is sitting all their starters today, so Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs will likely start and are top plays looking at big usage bumps. Three of Houstan, Schofield, Bitadze, M. Wagner, Okeke, and Bol Bol are the most likely to start in the frontcourt and SF, and whoever does will be solid value plays.
- With Markkanen and Olynyk out we should see Samanic and Azubuike start again at the SF and C spots, and Miami seems content on starting Max Strus over Kevin Love for now.
- PHI, POR, SAS, and DEN have pretty fluid starting lineups depending on their questionable players’ statuses, so I’ll revisit them here one we get more clarity later in the day.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The Cavs are rightfully popping as the top p/$ plays as their entire projected starting lineup is $4,500 or less. Robin Lopez ($3,900) is my least favorite play from the projected starters, while Cedi Osman ($4,200) is my favorite play as he should be the primary offensive player for them today. Whoever starts between Rubio ($4,500) and Neto ($3,600) will be a fine value play, while Stevens ($4,400) and Wade ($3,800) should easily pay off their salaries if you need another cheapie to fill out your favorite lineup.
- Damian Jones ($3,700) is my favorite p/$ center today, as he should still see 24+ minutes even if he comes off the bench again. Jones played 32 minutes off the bench last game going for over 26 FP, and with that type of production in his range of outcomes I won’t be fading him at basically minimum price. Horton-Tucker ($8,400) and Olynyk ($7,000) remain high-upside plays at still very affordable prices, while Agbaji ($5,700) and Samanic ($4,800) are fine plays as well with decent upside.
- OKC needs to keep winning, so Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,600) is easily my top spend up of the slate, while Jalen Williams ($7,800) remains at a great price for someone with 50+ FP upside that could have to carry even more offense if Dort sits.
- Skylar Mays ($6,000) only went up $1k since last game after going for over 47 FP in 35 minutes, and will likely be looking at a similar minutes floor today as Portland could have just 8 available players again. Knox, Eubanks, Harrison, Williams, Walker, and Butler are all in play for value, and if Sharpe and/or Watford sit, whoever starts for them from that group will be top value plays.
- I’m keeping Shake Milton ($4,300) on my cash game radar if Maxey and Melton both sit, while Malaki Branham ($5,800) would be a more appealing play if Keldon sits. Denver will also likely have a bunch of strong value options if their starting lineup sits, with Bruce Brown ($6,000) being the highest upside play from the current bench options.
- The Magic have great value today now with Jalen Suggs and Moe Wagner being my favorite plays.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Cedi Osman ($3,400) is my favorite p/$ play on DK as he should easily see 30+ minutes and will carry most of the offense today. Rubio ($3,100) and Neto ($3,000) are top value plays with the starter being my preferred option, while Stevens ($3,700) and Wade ($3,800) remain fine options if you want more CLE exposure.
- SGA ($10,200), Jalen ($7,000), THT ($8,100), and Olynyk ($6,900) remain the highest upside plays from the OKC/UTA with both teams motivated to win. Agabaji ($5,100), Samanic ($3,900), and Jones ($4,100) are all great value options from that game. Check out our No House Advantage promo code for new signups, where I like betting the over 44.5 pts+rebs+asts line for SGA today.
- Skylar Mays ($6,400) remains a high-upside guard option looking at big minutes for POR especially if Sharpe sits, and Shake Milton ($3,500) will be a cash game lock if Maxey/Melton both sit.
- The Magic have great value today now with Jalen Suggs and Moe Wagner being my favorite plays.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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