NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/20/23
We’re starting the week with six games and just the Rockets on a back-to-back, so look for their first injury report later. This slate is also a bit unique as no games are tipping after 9 PM EST, so we should get most if not all of the injury news before lock. We’re still treating Anthony Edwards as doubtful, even though he’s officially listed as questionable. There are quotes out there saying he’s unlikely to play today and will continue to have his ankle sprain evaluated daily. With that said, he is superhuman, having only missed one game this season, so anything is possible.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG and provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will focus on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends on RG.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses for cash games. Knowing who is dealing with any injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are questionable for Dallas, so there are varying DFS implications depending on their statuses. If both play, I likely won’t use any Dallas players in a tough road matchup with Memphis, and most of the usage is soaked up by two players. If just one plays and the other sits, then the active player would have a massive ceiling and a big usage rate, and I’d be more inclined to use Kyrie at his cheaper salaries if he’s in and Doncic sits. If both of them are out, then Jaden Hardy would almost certainly start at PG and be looking at 35+ minutes, while Josh Green would be a much more appealing value play getting a nice usage bump as well. Christian Wood would also be in play for cash games if both are out, as he’s coming off b2b games of 44+ FP. Tim Hardaway is now questionable as well, so Hardy and Green would get more minutes if he is out. (Update: Doncic is OUT, Kyrie is IN, Hardaway is IN)
- Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid are both questionable once again for Minnesota, so Reid would likely start if active and Gobert is out, and he’d be a top-value play of the slate. If both bigs are out, Luka Garza and Nathan Knight would handle the center minutes, with the starter being the preferred value target. Guys like Anderson and McDaniels would be even better plays, as Edwards is already likely out even though he’s officially “questionable”. (Update: Gobert and Reid are IN)
- Jaren Jackson is questionable with calf soreness, and with Adams/Clarke both already out, Jackson sitting would leave a ton of PF/C minutes for Santi Aldama and Xavier Tillman, while Roddy and Lofton would also be pressed into more minutes at PF. Jackson being out would give Tyus Jones and Desmond Bane even bigger usage bumps, and I would likely have at least 2-3 Grizzlies in my cash game lineup on both sites in a projected competitive home matchup with Dallas.
- Lauri Markkanen is questionable for Utah in the last game of the night. With Clarkson already out, Markkanen sitting would leave a ton of usage for the other starters, especially Horton-Tucker, Olynyk, and Kessler. Fontecchio would likely start for Lauri and be a decent value play, while Agbaji would be a more appealing value play as the likely starter for Clarkson. It’s the highest projected game total of the slate, so I would almost certainly have 2-3 Jazz in my main build if Markkanen sits, with Horton-Tucker being my first priority. (Update: Markkanen is OUT)
- Chris Duarte, Bennedict Mathurin, and Isaiah Jackson are questionable for the Pacers, with Jackson’s status being the least important as they are very deep at PF/C. Duarte could start if active. Otherwise, Jordan Nwora would almost certainly continue to start if Duarte remains out, while Mathurin’s status would impact the usage and minutes for all the guards and wings like Nembhard, Hield, and McConnell. (Update: Duarte is OUT, Mathurin is IN, Jackson is IN)
- Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun are questionable for Houston, so Kevin Porter and Jabari Smith could become top plays of the slate if they get ruled out. Tari Eason would also be a much better play with either Q guy out, as Tate is already out and he would be looking at 30+ minutes easily. (Update: Sengun is OUT, Green is LIKELY IN)
- Kevin Looney is questionable for back soreness, and if out, I’d expect Kuminga to start with Draymond moving to center, while JaMychal Green would be looking at more minutes as the top big man off the bench. (Update: Looney is LIKELY IN)
- Kevin Huerter is questionable after sitting last game, so we’d likely see a similar scenario if he is out again, with Edwards starting but Malik Monk and Terence Davis seeing more minutes. Trey Lyles is also questionable with his minutes being handled by Edwards, Murray, and Metu if out.
- Alex Caruso is questionable; if out, Dosunmu would likely start for him. In that same game, PJ Tucker is questionable for Philly, and if out, they could start Melton, McDaniels, or even House, with Harris moving to PF if they go with Melton at SF. Javonte Green is also questionable in that game, but his status isn’t very relevant as he’d likely see very limited minutes if he even plays. (Update: Caruso is OUT, Green is IN, Tucker is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes, as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- With Haliburton still out, we should see either Duarte (if active) or Nwora start for him, with Andrew Nembhard remaining the starting PG and McConnell backing him up.
- With Edwards likely still out for Minnesota, Taurean Prince could draw another start after playing 30 minutes as a starter last game. However, after going for under 10 FP in those 30 minutes, he has a pretty limited ceiling.
- Until we start getting news on all these questionable players, the other starting lineups are projected pretty similar to what they’ve been going with lately, with Agbaji likely continuing to start for Clarkson and DiVincenzo continuing to start for Wiggins.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- PJ Washington ($6,100) is standing out today as his price dropped $400 from the last game, and he’s playing in the 3rd highest projected total of the slate that does have the closest spread of the slate at just 1.5 points against the Pacers. PJ has had a few tough matchups with PHI and CLE twice in his last three games, which has produced lower FP outputs and caused a salary decrease, but in better matchups like today, he’s been a solid 30+ FP guy in the absence of Ball and Williams. He went for 36.5 FP the last time he faced Indiana, and I’m expecting a similar number today at a great salary, so he’s currently a strong consideration for cash games.
- Tyus Jones ($6,600) only went up $100 after another strong game of 36+ FP, so with a likely 5x value floor and the possibility of Jaren Jackson sitting, Jones is still too cheap to fade in cash games, especially with a home matchup and just a 2 point spread with Dallas. Desmond Bane ($8,000) went down $100 and remains way too cheap in the absence of Morant, especially in a matchup with Dallas, who he went for around 40 FP against in b2b games about a week ago. Xavier Tillman ($5,500) is already a strong value option but would jump to must-play status if Jackson ends up on the wrong side of his questionable tag.
- I definitely want exposure to the SAC/UTA game, currently sitting a 240.5 total, starting with Domantas Sabonis ($10,700) as the highest upside play for SAC. If Huerter ends up out, it would be hard to fade Terence Davis ($3,900) after he went for over 34 FP in 29 minutes last game with Huerter out. Talen Horton-Tucker ($6,800) is already a great play with Clarkson out, as he’s gone for 35+ FP in four of his last five games and now will be looking at an even bigger usage and ceiling bump with Markkanen out. Kelly Olynyk ($5,800) is also a top play at that price with Lauri out. Check out our No House Advantage bonus offer for new signups, where I like betting the over on Sabonis’ points line of 21.5 today.
Looking at DraftKings:
- PJ Washington ($5,800) remains a very strong value target after seeing a $200 price drop on DK, while Kelly Oubre ($6,900) dropped $300 and is a very high-upside play with 36+ FP in four of his last five games.
- Desmond Bane ($7,800) is the same price as last game and remains just way underpriced given his increased role with Morant out, while Tyus Jones ($7,000) is still cheap enough to consider for cash games, along with Xavier Tillman ($5,400).
- Talen Horton-Tucker ($6,800) remains a top cash game play with Clarkson and Markkanen out. Ochai Agbaji ($3,800) comes at a $500 discount to FD and is a great source of salary relief today as he should be looking at 33+ minutes as a starter and will likely smash that salary. Kelly Olynyk ($5,700) remains a great play, and Walker Kessler ($7,000) comes at a $900 discount to FD, so I prefer using him on DK.
- Mitchell Robinson ($4,500) is $1,500 cheaper than FD, so I’d consider him a top cash game value on DK, as he should have an easy 5x value floor at his cheapest salary of the season. Jaden McDaniels ($5,000) dropped $300 from the last game and has a great shot at 6x value with Edwards likely still out and possibly Gobert or Reid too.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change instantly if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
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Good luck today!
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