NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/23/23
There are just four games today, and only the Knicks are on a back-to-back, but their injury report should be clean once we see it later. The biggest news of the day is Paul George is out indefinitely with a knee sprain, so Eric Gordon should become a regular starter for the Clippers now. There are currently no questionable or even doubtful players, so it will be a very slow news day, as we are all working with complete information right now regarding who is in or out, but that could change if we get a surprise Q tag throughout the day.
With very few games and probably no injury news, this is a great day to start some MLB research! I will be doing an article like this for MLB Monday-Friday this season, and our lineups page is already up with salaries for FD & DK, along with some preliminary projections and best guess batting orders for opening day so check it out!
This daily weekday NBA article can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG and provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will focus on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends on RG.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how they will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses for cash games. Knowing who is dealing with any injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Mitchell Robinson was announced questionable around noon with a right knee contusion, so he is the only news we will be waiting on before lock. If Robinson is out, Isaiah Hartenstein should draw the start at center, and at his current salaries he would be my favorite value play of the slate on both sites. (Update: Robinson is IN)
- Jalen Brunson is now questionable with a right hand sprain, so Quickley would likely start if Brunson sits, and would be a great play at his current salaries on both sites. (Update: Brunson is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes, as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- With Paul George out indefinitely, Eric Gordon should become the regular starting SG, and guys like Mann and Batum will see bumps in minutes as the top bench options now. Norman Powell also remains out for LAC with his shoulder injury.
- Ben Simmons remains out for Brooklyn with back and knee issues, so O’Neale, Harris, and Curry remain their top bench options.
- Mark Williams remains out for Charlotte, so Nick Richards will continue to start with Jones and Thor backing up the PF/C spots.
- Jalen Suggs is still dealing with a concussion, so Anthony, Houstan, and K. Harris will remain the top guard/wing options off the bench.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Yesterday I was saying I couldn’t remember the last time a $10k+ player was our top p/$ projected play of a slate, but this will be two days in a row now as Kawhi Leonard ($10,000) is projected for over 5x value with an almost 7x ceiling. He should be one of the highest-owned players of the slate with George out, as there are very few spend-up options today. With George (and Powell) off the floor this season, Leonard sees a 5.1% usage bump and scores an additional .10 FPPM for a team-high 33.9% usage rate and 1.34 FPPM rate.
- Eric Gordon ($5,800) and Russell Westbrook ($7,700) will also benefit with George out, as they both see usage bumps of 7.1% with the available Clippers players today. Gordon isn’t the most exciting player in DFS and has a wide range of outcomes even when given 30+ minutes. However, he should still be a popular value play today, and I’d expect most cash game lineups to have Kawhi and at least one of Gordon or Westbrook, if not all three today.
- From the other expensive options today, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,600) is my next favorite option as the OKC/LAC game has the highest projected total of the slate, and I like stacking studs from the same game just in case we get some OT. Josh Giddey ($7,300) and Jalen Williams ($7,500) look like strong targets from that game, too, as they each have 40+ FP upside, and this game is much more likely to stay close with George out.
- Spencer Dinwiddie ($8,000), Wendell Carter ($7,200), PJ Washington ($6,400), Trey Murphy ($5,900), and Nick Richards ($5,700) are other strong p/$ plays to consider in cash games on FD.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Kawhi Leonard ($9,900), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($9,600), and Eric Gordon ($5,300) remain my starting core for cash games, as Westbrook ($7,900) is just a bit too pricey to consider him a must-play, although he has an elite ceiling and I’d def have exposure to him in GPPs if you can.
- Jalen Williams ($6,700) comes at an $800 discount to FD. He is easily my next favorite target from OKC, and speaking of price discounts, Jarrett Allen ($6,300) is $1,400 cheaper than FD and a very strong play for the price on DK coming off a 36 FP game in 35 minutes in this same matchup with Brooklyn. Mitchell Robinson ($4,600) is another center I much prefer on DK as he’s $1,300 cheaper than FD and has gone for 27+ FP in two of his last three games.
- Darius Garland ($7,200) disappointed last game in this same matchup with Brooklyn going for just 27.25 FP, but I’d still consider him a value as his price dropped another $300. He’s much more likely to go for 35+ FP than under 30 FP again, so take advantage of this reduced salary before it gets back closer to $8k after he has a huge game again. Check out our No House Advantage bonus code for new signups, and I like betting the over 20.5 points line for Garland there today.
- Jalen Brunson ($7,800), Paolo Banchero ($7,600), Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100), Gordon Hayward ($5,700), Cole Anthony ($5,600), and Nick Richards ($5,000) are other plays I like for the price on DK.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change instantly if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have tough lineup decisions or need quick picks, check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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