NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/24/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-03-24 22:24:45

Just another typical DFS NBA Friday with ten games, over 70 players in the situation room, and over 20 players currently questionable. The good news is that only two teams are on a back-to-back in the Hornets and Thunder, but their initial injury reports could change the dynamic of the slate. Charlotte lost Rozier, Oubre, and Smith to various injuries/ailments yesterday, so there’s a good chance at least one of them are out today. Meanwhile, the Thunder could play Gilgeous-Alexander on the b2b after some encouraging quotes about his status for today, plus the fact he only played 26 minutes yesterday, and they didn’t have to travel with the Lakers on tap after facing the Clippers yesterday.

It goes without saying that the top plays today are likely to change multiple times throughout the day and likely right up until lock and even after lock with so many questionable statuses, so it’s extra important to set your lineups with as much positional flexibility as possible, with the later tipoff players in your G/F/UTIL spots on DK for maximum swap upside.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG and provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will focus on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends on RG.

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how they will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Haliburton and Duarte are questionable with their ankle sprains, so we should continue to see Mathurin starting if Haliburton remains out. At the same time, all the available guards/wings would handle Duarte’s minutes. (Update: Haliburton is IN, Duarte is OUT)

• Irving and Hardaway are questionable for Dallas, so Kleber is likely to remain a starter if Irving sits and Doncic would have a safer floor/ceiling combo, while Hardaway’s minutes would be absorbed by Green and Hardy mainly. (Update: Irving is IN, Hardaway is OUT)

• DeRozan and Caruso are questionable for Chicago, and if both end up out, I’d expect Williams and Dosunmu to join the starting lineup. LaVine and Vucevic will become top plays if DeRozan sits. This is a 10 PM tipoff, so we could get some lower-owned plays if we learn the Q guys status after lock. (Update: DeRozan is OUT)

• For now, I’d consider Gilgeous-Alexander questionable until we see OKC’s first injury report, but all indications seem to be he has a really good chance to play the b2b. If SGA does end up out though, Giddey will become a top play, especially for $7.3k on FD. Isaiah Joe would likely join the starting lineup. This is the only 10:30 PM game of the night, so if you’re planning on using anyone for OKC know there is some risk of SGA’s status not going the way you were planning, and there will be limited swap options if we learn his status later in the evening.

• Kelly Oubre is the only Charlotte player listed questionable on the b2b, and if out I’d expect Mykhailiuk to start at SG and be a decent value play, especially with Rozier doubtful.

• Embiid, Harden, and McDaniels are questionable for Philly. This is a 10 PM tipoff, so I would prepare to swap in guys like Maxey, Melton, or Harris if Harden is out, and possibly Paul Reed if Embiid sits and he draws the start.

• Damian Lillard is now questionable for Portland, so we could see Arcidiacono start at PG if Lillard sits, or they could go with Reddish at SG and move Sharpe to PG, but either way whoever starts would get a huge usage bump and be a top play.

• D’Angelo Russell is now questionable for the Lakers, and if out Schroder would likely start at PG and be a very strong play at his current salaries.

• Barnes, Trent, and Achiuwa are questionable for Toronto, so we could see another Will Barton start if the former two are out again. VanVleet and Siakam would be huge upside plays. Chris Boucher will be in play for value if Barnes and Achiuwa are out. (Update: Barnes, Trent, and Achiuwa are all OUT)

• Collins and Vassell are questionable for the Spurs, and if both sit, look for Mamukelashvili to start at center, while either Branham or Graham would likely start at SG. (Update: Collins and Vassell are OUT)

• Huerter is questionable again for the Kings, so Edwards should continue to start if he remains out, and Monk/Davis would see more usage.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes and which teams or games I am looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Beal and Kuzma are out for Washington, so Kispert and Avdija will likely start at the SG/SF spots, with Avdija being the higher-upside play, and Porzingis has a massive ceiling as he had a 40% usage rate last game with both Beal & Kuzma out.

• The Spurs will be without Sochan and Langford, so Bates-Diop will likely start at PF, and Langford’s minutes will be handled by Branham, Graham, and Wesley.

• Detroit will get Duren and Livers back after both sat last game but will be without Joseph & McGruder, who join Bogdanovic, Burks, Diallo, and Stewart on the sidelines. Livers will likely start at SF, while Bagley should continue to start at PF, and Duren’s presence makes it much harder to trust Wiseman in DFS.

• Khris Middleton will sit today for rest on the front end of tomorrow’s b2b for the Bucks, so Pat Connaughton will likely start for him, and Jrue/Giannis both will have higher usages and ceilings today.

• Markkanen and Clarkson will be out for the Jazz, so Agbaji and Fontecchio will likely start for each, and THT/Olynyk/Kessler will all get big usage bumps and are fine plays in all formats. Rudy Gay is also out, which gives even more minutes to the starters, along with Toscano-Anderson off the bench.

• Terry Rozier is doubtful so look for Dennis Smith Jr. to start at PG for Charlotte and be a strong play at his current salaries. Mark Williams is probable to return from his thumb injury and could start right away, but it will likely be a pretty close split in center minutes with Richards still.

• Nurkic is now doubtful for Portland, so look for Watford and Eubanks to start in the frontcourt and both should be strong plays at their current salaries. Little is on track to play and help at the forward spots too.

• Ayton remains out for the Suns, so look for Biyombo to continue to start and split center minutes with Landale.

• With Simons and Grant out for Portland, Sharpe and Watford will likely both start again and be very strong plays, especially if Nurkic ends up on the wrong side of his questionable status.

• Dillon Brooks is back from his one-game suspension, Tate remains out for Houston, Crowder/Dragic remain out for the Bucks, Wiggins remains out for GSW. Austin Reaves should be a regular starter now after he finally started over Beasley last game.

• We’ll see if Ja Morant and Robert Williams continue to come off the bench as they ramp up their conditioning, but both should join their starting lineups sooner rather than later.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• I have to start with Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,500), as he saw a drastic price decrease of $1,400 from the last game and is at his lowest salary in over a month. With Clarkson, Markkanen, and Gay all out for the Jazz, THT should be looking at a 30-35% usage rate and a likely 30 FP floor which is around 5.5x value and what we’re looking for in a cash game player. His ownership will be interesting on such a big slate with so many other solid plays in his price range, along with some recency bias after he went for under 25 FP the last two games. Still, I won’t be fading him in my main build at this price and expected role with the injuries around him.

• With Beal & Kuzma out, Kristaps Porzingis ($8,900) has a massive ceiling against the Spurs, and he was on pace for a huge performance last game before foul trouble and the game getting away from Washington in the 2nd half prevented him from hitting his ceiling. He still saw a 40% usage rate in the 22 minutes he played last game, and with that kind of usage in a better matchup with the Spurs today, it will be hard to fade his 60+ FP upside for under $9k. Deni Avdija ($6,000) is also a very strong target from Washington today as he should start and likely go for 5x value, and this is probably the last game we see him at $6k or less for a while. Check out our Boom Fantasy promo code for new signups, and I like betting the over 28.5 points line for Porzingis there today.

• Portland has a bunch of available usage again with Simons and Grant still out, and Damian Lillard ($10,300) is somehow the same price as last game after going for over 54 FP in the same situation as today. Shaedon Sharpe ($6,000) went up $1,700 in price after going for 50 FP as a starter last game, and at his current salary, I’m only considering him for GPPs. Trendon Watford ($6,500) only went up $800 in price after going for over 47 FP last game, so he is still in cash game consideration as he’s been a much steadier 30+ FP guy when given starters’ minutes than Sharpe has been this season.

• Maxey ($7,000) and/or Melton ($6,500) will almost certainly make my cash game lineup if Harden ends up out, while VanVleet ($8,900) and/or Siakam ($9,100) will also be top cash game plays if Barnes and Trent are out again.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Jrue Holiday ($7,200) is one of my favorite p/$ plays on DK as his price dropped $800 from the last game, and today he gets the advantage of Middleton being out along with playing in the second-highest projected game total of the slate against Utah. This is Holiday’s lowest salary since early January, so take advantage of it as he has legit 7x value upside today.

• Nick Richards ($5,100), PJ Washington ($5,900), and Gordon Hayward ($5,700) are all solid plays for the price, even before we learn the statuses of Rozier/Oubre/Smith. If a couple of them do end up out, I’d be hard-pressed not to use at least one of the healthy Charlotte starters, including Theo Maledon ($3,000).

• Porzingis ($9,000) and Avdija ($5,900) remain strong plays at those salaries, and I’d also include Monte Morris ($4,900) as a value option.

• Sharpe ($5,400) is a more appealing play at his $600 discount to FD, while Watford ($6,000) remains a solid target after going up $700 from the last game.

• Horton-Tucker ($7,200) isn’t as much of a must-play as he is on FD for me at that price, while Kessler ($6,700) is $800 cheaper than FD and a much stronger play on DK for the price.

• Maxey ($7,000) & Melton ($6,000) remain top plays if Harden sits, along with VanVleet ($8,700) and Siakam ($9,300) if Barnes/Trent sits.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change instantly if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need quick picks, check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA Twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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