NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/27/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-03-27 22:50:45

Eight games to start the week, and five of the sixteen teams are on a back-to-back today, so keep an eye out for the initial injury reports for Dallas, Houston, Minnesota, Portland, and Chicago. Luka Doncic picked up his 16th technical yesterday but it was rescinded this afternoon so he is eligible to play today for Dallas. Portland will likely remain without their four top starters and possibly Watford, too, as he hurt his ankle yesterday. There are plenty of big questionable names out there and some great value already available, so let’s look at how today’s slate is shaping up.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG and provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends on RG.

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Jalen Brunson is questionable with his hand sprain, and if out Immanuel Quickley would likely start for him and be a top play at his current salaries on both sites. The other four starters would be more appealing plays, too, depending on your salary and positional needs, especially in a great home matchup with Houston. (Update: Brunson is OUT)

• Haliburton and Turner are questionable for the Pacers, so we’d likely Nwora start if Haliburton sits with Nembhard moving to PG. Isaiah Jackson would likely start for Turner with Jalen Smith as his top backup (Jalen Smith is actually starting tonight). Jordan Nwora would be someone I’d be targeting if Haliburton is out, as he’s coming off a 40+ FP game in 33 minutes and is looking at a higher minutes floor with Hield out today. (Update: Haliburton and Turner are OUT)

• Lauri Markkanen is questionable for Utah, and with Fontecchio now out along with Gay, we would likely see Dunn, JTA, or possibly Juzang join the starting lineup if Lauri sits.

• Michael Porter Jr. is questionable for Denver, and if out, Bruce Brown would likely start at SF and be a pretty solid value option, especially for $4,500 on DK, while Murray and Jokic would get slight usage and ceiling bumps.

• Anthony Edwards and Jaylen Nowell are questionable for MIN, so all the starters would be much more appealing plays if Edwards sits, while Nowell’s minutes would be handled by McLaughlin and NAW. Taurean Prince is also now questionable with an illness.

• McGruder and Joseph are questionable for Detroit, and if both sit, they would have just 10 players available, and all the guards/wings would get minutes bumps in a likely blowout against Milwaukee. (Update: McGruder is OUT, Joseph is IN)

• Maxi Kleber is questionable for Dallas, and if out guys like Powell, Bullock, Wood, and Bertans would all absorb his time. (Update: Kleber is OUT)

• Alex Caruso is questionable for the Bulls, so Patrick Williams would likely start if he’s out, while White and Dosunmu would get a bump in minutes.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Until we get Portland’s official injury report, it’s pretty safe to assume that Lillard, Simons, Nurkic, and Grant will remain out, especially as they are almost 10-point home underdogs to New Orleans. Trendon Watford hurt his ankle yesterday, so we’re treating him as doubtful for now. If out, Portland would be down to 10 available players, and Nassir Little would likely start at PF and be a top value play along with Eubanks in the frontcourt. Arcidiacono and Sharpe should continue to start in the backcourt, with Sharpe being the highest upside play for POR.

• Jrue Holiday is out for personal reasons, so Jevon Carter will likely start at PG and should be a pretty strong value option especially for $3,400 on DK. Dragic and Crowder will likely be available for the Bucks after sitting the last few games. Giannis Antetokounmpo is now out as well, so Bobby Portis should draw the start and is a top value play of the slate, while the other starters all get big usage bumps in a great matchup with Detroit.

• Joel Embiid is out for Philly while James Harden is on track to play, so they could go with a few guys to start for Embiid including McDaniels, House, Melton, or a traditional center in Reed or Dedmon. Embiid out mainly bumps the usage of Harden, Harris, and Maxey.

• Karl-Anthony Towns is out on the b2b, so Kyle Anderson should start for him and is a high-upside play against SAC, while Gobert is a more appealing play looking at a higher ceiling.

• Deandre Ayton is likely back for Phoenix after missing four games, so Biyombo returns to the bench, and the other starters take slight usage hits.

• THT and Agbaji should continue to start in the backcourt with Clarkson still out for Utah, while Toscano-Anderson should see a bump in minutes with Gay and Fontecchio out today.

• Marcus Morris is now out with an illness, so Batum likely starts at PF and Covington/Coffey should see some extra run.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Right now Nassir Little ($4,300) is easily the top p/$ play of the slate, as he’s coming off a 33 FP game in 31 minutes and will likely start if Trendon Watford sits with his ankle injury from yesterday. Drew Eubanks ($5,200) also continues to be underpriced as he only went up $200 in salary after going for 43 FP last game, and Shaedon Sharpe ($7,200) did go up $800 in price but should still easily see 35+ minutes and has a 40-50 FP ceiling, so he’s definitely still in cash game consideration. Arcidiacono, Thybulle, Reddish, and Johnson remain fringe value options I’d only consider in GPPs.

• Harrison Barnes ($5,300) doesn’t have the greatest p/$ projection right now. However, he’s still one of my favorite value plays of the slate as he’s gone for over 5x value in three of his last four games, could see a higher usage rate if Fox remains out, and is playing in the highest projected scoring game of the slate at home against Minnesota. Keegan Murray ($5,900) is a bit pricier but also remains in play for value for the same reasons as Barnes, and Murray has shown a higher ceiling than Barnes if you can spend the extra $600.

• FD keeps tempting us with Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,900) as his price went down $100 after a low scoring last game, but he still put up almost 20 FP while making just three FGs, so his floor is pretty safe, and he’s cheap enough where 20 FP won’t kill your lineup in cash games. If Markkanen plays and better value opens up today, then I could see fading him, but if Markkanen sits and a lot of the other questionable guys end up playing and better value doesn’t emerge, I will be right back on THT at a great salary.

• With Jrue and Giannis out for the Bucks, Bobby Portis ($6,300) is now a top play as a likely starter in a nice matchup with Detroit, and Jevon Carter ($4,800) is a fine cheap option along with Grayson Allen ($5,100).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Portland remains the top value of the slate as Nassir Little ($3,800) and Drew Eubanks ($4,300) are pretty much free squares at those prices, especially if Watford is out and Shaedon Sharpe ($6,200) only went up $300 after his third straight game over 34 FP and comes at a $1k discount to FD.

• Mitchell Robinson ($4,800) is a cheaper option at center in a matchup with Houston that he put up 34.5 FP in their last meeting and should have a solid 5x floor at that price. Quentin Grimes ($4,500) is coming off games of 48.75 and 29 FP and would be in consideration for value if Brunson is out.

• Harrison Barnes ($5,300) and Keegan Murray ($5,400) remain strong value plays at the forward spots, especially if Fox sits, and I’m keeping Jordan Nwora ($4,900) on my radar if Haliburton is out as he should easily pay off that salary especially if he starts.

• With Jrue Holiday now out for the Bucks, Jevon Carter ($3,400) is a top value option as he should easily see 25+ minutes in a great matchup with Detroit, and is probably one of the safer starters as far as minutes goes in case it turns in to a blowout early. Bobby Portis ($5,600) is now a top value option too with Giannis also out, and at one of his lowest salaries of the season he will be a very popular cash game play.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change instantly if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.

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If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA Twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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