NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/28/23
Six games on today’s slate and most injury news should come before lock as only one game tips off after 8 PM EST. The lone 10 PM game includes the Pelicans, the only team on a back-to-back, so look for their initial injury report later. However, I’m expecting everyone available from yesterday as they all saw reduced minutes in a blowout. Some big news for today includes Ja Morant likely out, so Tyus Jones goes back to a top value play, will SGA sit today on the front end of a b2b tomorrow, and the Wizards and Cavs each with two questionable starters.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG and provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will focus on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends on RG.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable with an ankle sprain, and it’s also the front end of a b2b for OKC, so they may be cautious and give him an extra day to heal. If that’s the case, Josh Giddey would become a top play of the slate, getting a big ceiling bump. Meanwhile, Isaiah Joe would likely start and be a strong value play coming off a 40+ FP game. (Update: SGA is OUT)
- Jarrett Allen & Isaac Okoro are questionable for the Cavs. If both end up out, I’d expect two of LeVert, Osman, and Stevens to join the starting lineup at the forward positions, with Mobley moving to center. (Update: Allen and Okoro are OUT)
- Jimmy Butler is now questionable for Miami, and it seems like a good chance he’ll sit the front end of tomorrow’s b2b tonight with the mid-day downgrade. If so, Strus or Martin will start for him, while Herro and Adebayo will be much more appealing plays getting nice usage and ceiling bumps. (Update: Butler is OUT)
- Monte Morris & Daniel Gafford are questionable for the Wizards, so they could be down four regular starters as Beal & Kuzma remain out. Delon Wright will likely start if Morris sits, while a few different guys could start if Gafford sits as they can slide Porzingis to center and start an extra guard or forward, or they could go with a traditional center like Taj Gibson. (Update: Morris is IN, Gafford is OUT)
- Kelly Oubre is questionable for Charlotte, which is pretty big news as Rozier remains out and Hayward is likely out. Mykhailiuk and McGowens would be looking at big minutes if Oubre can’t go, while Dennis Smith Jr., PJ Washington, and Nick Richards would all be even better cash game targets with no Oubre.
- Gary Trent Jr. is questionable for Toronto, and if he remains out Jeff Dowtin and Malachi Flynn would continue to see bumps in minutes. (Update: Trent is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Kispert and Avdija should continue to start for Beal and Kuzma, while Boston is the healthiest they’ve been in a while as Payton Pritchard is back, and everyone else is good to go for them too after Tatum sat last game.
- Dennis Smith Jr. will continue to start for Terry Rozier, and I’d expect Svi Mykhailiuk to start for Gordon Hayward, who is doubtful. Charlotte will be rotating two active centers down the stretch, and today they’re going with Nick Richards and Kai Jones with Mark Williams out of the rotation.
- Ja Morant is likely out with thigh soreness, so Tyus Jones will start at PG and is a top value play of the slate, while Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson are more appealing plays as well.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Tyus Jones ($5,600) is a cash game lock today as Morant is likely out, and Jones is back to being way underpriced for a starter with his 40+ FP upside. Desmond Bane ($7,800) will also see a usage bump and remains at a cheap enough salary to easily go for 5x value and potentially way more. Check out our No House Advantage promo offer for new signups, where I like betting the over on Bane’s points line of 23.5.
- The Hornets are popping as top p/$ plays today as they’re down Rozier, likely Hayward, and possibly Oubre, and draw a nice matchup with OKC. Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,500) didn’t see a price change after another strong performance last game and will have to carry even more offense today, with Hayward likely out. He’s my favorite PG pairing with Tyus Jones in cash games. Nick Richards ($5,300) is an excellent cash game center as Mark Williams will be out of the rotation today, and Richards has gone for 24+ FP in three straight games with a great chance at continuing that streak today. PJ Washington ($7,000) only went up $300 after b2b games of 46+ FP and remains a high-upside play at a great price, and Svi Mykhailiuk ($4,200) is a great value option today looking at 33+ minutes and a solid 20 FP floor.
- Jalen Williams ($7,000) remains at one of his lowest salaries in a month, even after going for 40 FP last game at the same price. In a nice matchup with Charlotte and the potential of SGA sitting, he is a very strong cash game option today at either SG or SF. Josh Giddey ($7,900) is also a solid option that would be a lock if SGA sits. (Update: SGA is OUT)
- The Wizards will be another top team to target in cash games, especially if Morris or Gafford end up out, as Corey Kispert ($5,000), Deni Avdija ($6,800), and Kristaps Porzingis ($9,400) are all seeing bumps in usage with Beal & Kuzma out, and their prices haven’t gone up enough to rule any of them out of cash game consideration.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Tyus Jones ($5,300), Desmond Bane ($7,300), and Nick Richards ($4,700) remains top p/$ targets and will likely be the starting core for most cash game lineups today. Dennis Smith ($7,000), PJ Washington ($7,800), and Svi Mykhailiuk ($4,900) are priced up a bit compared to FD, but all remain solid plays looking at big minutes.
- Darius Garland ($7,400) is $700 cheaper than FD, so I prefer him as a DK cash game play, as I want some exposure to this CLE/ATL game with it sitting at the highest projected total of the slate with just a one point spread currently. If Allen ends up out, I’ll also strongly consider Evan Mobley ($8,100) for cash games.
- Kispert ($5,000), Avdija ($6,500), and Porzingis ($9,300) all remain a bit underpriced given their increased roles of late, while Josh Giddey ($8,200) & Jalen Williams ($6,700) are still at great prices with SGA now out, and Isaiah Joe ($4,400) is in play for value now.
- Other cheap guys to consider include Clint Capela ($6,000), John Collins ($5,200), Xavier Tillman ($5,100), De’Andre Hunter ($5,000), Max Strus ($4,400), and Donte DiVincenzo ($3,900).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change instantly if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA Twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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