NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/29/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-03-29 22:45:54

It’s another wild Wednesday in the NBA as we have a huge ten-game slate and currently ten questionable players with nine or higher impact ratings in the situation room. The Heat, Thunder, and Grizzlies are on a back-to-back, and their initial injury reports later today will all likely have some DFS-relevant names on them. The Bucks are on the front end of a b2b, so we could see Middleton and/or Ingles sit today and play tomorrow or vice versa. At the same time, Portland has officially waved the white flag and are sitting out all their previously injured players, along with Reddish, who is doubtful tonight. LeBron returned over the weekend, and Durant may return today, but let’s get into all the news for today and plan our attack depending on who ends up in or out as lock approaches.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG and provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will focus on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends on RG.

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Harden and Embiid are questionable again for Philly, and last game it seemed like both of them had a real shot of playing, but both ended up getting ruled out. Currently, the 76ers are 4-point favorites, so it seems like at least one of them will play based on that line. If either ends up out again, then Maxey would become a high-upside play, while Harris and Melton would be more intriguing options at very reasonable prices. Dedmon started the last game with Embiid out, but don’t fall for that as he only played 10 minutes. Paul Reed saw 16 minutes and did go for a whopping 34+ FP, making him a decent GPP play if Embiid sits.

• Jalen Brunson is questionable with his hand sprain, which puts Immanuel Quickley in play again as a top target if Brunson remains out. Quickley went for 60+ FP in just 30 minutes last game and did see a pretty big price increase on both sites, but with that kind of upside, he would definitely still be a cash game target if Brunson sits. (Update: Brunson is IN)

• Myles Turner is questionable with ankle soreness that kept him out the last two games, and if he remains out, we’d see either Jalen Smith or Isaiah Jackson start at center. Jackson started for Turner two games ago, while Smith started for him last game. Either way, it would be a split in time at center and both would be volatile options likely to see around 24 minutes each if Turner sits. (Update: Turner is OUT)

• Khris Middleton and Joe Ingles are questionable for the Bucks, so Pat Connaughton would likely start if Middleton sits and would have a sizeable SF role if Ingles also sits. Jrue and Giannis would have to carry a bit more offense each with no Middleton and would be more appealing cash game targets. (Update: Middleton is OUT, Ingles is IN)

• Durant is questionable to return from his knee injury and I would be looking to avoid any Suns players in cash games if Durant is active. LeBron is questionable, but I see no reason why he wouldn’t play after coming out of Sunday’s game healthy and the Lakers don’t play tomorrow.

• Tillman and Konchar are questionable for Memphis, so Santi Aldama could be looking at a ton of minutes with Jackson already likely out, while Konchar’s minutes would be handled by Kennard, Brooks, Roddy, and Chandler.

• Kyle Lowry & Gabe Vincent are questionable for Miami, and if both sit this would leave the PG minutes for Herro, Oladipo, and Butler to all help cover. (Update: Vincent is IN)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Haliburton, Hield, and Duarte remain out for Indy, so Nembhard will slide to PG with Mathurin and Nwora the likely SG/SF starters.

• Gordon will continue to start for George, while Batum will start over Morris for the rest of the season. Morris is still out today after sitting the last game, so Batum and Covington will get his minutes.

• Ja Morant will be back after sitting yesterday on the front end of Memphis’ b2b today, but Bane, Jackson, and Jones are all doubtful. Santi Aldama should draw the start at PF while Luke Kennard is a likely candidate to start at SG and both are top value plays. Chandler will assume the role as backup PG.

• Markkanen, Olynyk, Clarkson, Sexton, and Gay are all out for Utah, so Agbaji and Fontecchio should start at the SG/SF spots, while JTA is a strong candidate to start at PF.

• Johnson, Sochan, and Vassell are out for the Spurs, so Bates-Diop will almost certainly start at PF, while Langford is a strong candidate to start at SF. They could go with Graham at SG and Branham at SF, though.

• SGA is out for the Thunder, so Isaiah Joe should continue to start and is a top value play. Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams remain high-upside plays and both are still very affordable on both sites.

• McGruder remains out for Detroit along with the regular guys still out, so Livers will continue to start at SF. Guys like Omoruyi and Hampton will continue to see significant bench minutes.

• Portland is down to 9 players tonight, with Watford likely still out along with Reddish now who hurt his back last game. We should see the same lineup they started last game with Little at PF, but know there is big-time blowout risk here, so minutes for any of their 9 active players have a wide range of outcomes.

• Kawhi Leonard is out now so the LAC starters get huge usage bumps and Westbrook is in play for cash games now. Mann, Gordon, Batum, and Powell will absorb Kawhi’s minutes.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Bennedict Mathurin ($5,400) and Jordan Nwora ($5,400) are some of my favorite value plays for cash games today. With Haliburton & Hield out, both are on track to start and see big minutes with not much wing depth behind them. Each has shown 7x value upside recently when given 30+ minutes. I might end up not using both in my main build depending on how other news breaks today, but I can’t see myself not using at least one of them at these cheap salaries, especially if Turner ends up sitting too.

• Portland is tricky today as guys like Shaedon Sharpe ($6,900), Drew Eubanks ($5,600), and Nassir Little ($4,700) should see 35+ minutes if they can keep this game with the Kings relatively close. The problem is they are 14-point underdogs at home and were just blown out last game, and now they’re down another body in Reddish, so the likelihood of a lopsided score is even more likely than last game. Sharpe did still see 34 minutes in the blowout last game so his upside remains very high, while Little would be my next target as his cheap price leaves some wiggle room in case he does go for just 15-20 FP. I’m very interested in Kevin Knox ($4,300) today as he saw 32 minutes last game and could see similar run if it’s a blowout early, but regardless he should still see 20+ minutes and has a great shot at 5x value at likely pretty low ownership.

• OKC is fighting for a playoff spot and playing to win every game now, and tonight I definitely want exposure to them at home against Detroit. Jalen Williams ($7,100) remains too cheap after going up in price just $100 overnight, and with b2b games of 40+ FP he should have another big game tonight. Josh Giddey ($8,300) is also a lock at that price with SGA out, while either Lu Dort ($5,500) and Isaiah Joe ($5,500) remain strong plays.

• Horton-Tucker ($6,300) bounced back in a big way last game, going for over 37 FP, and his price only went up $400. With Markkanen and Olynyk out, he is close to a cash game lock against the Spurs, and Walker Kessler ($7,900) also has huge upside at a great price.

• I also want to mention Jaden Ivey ($6,600) as a strong cash game option today, as he draws one of the best matchups for guards against OKC, is coming off a 50 FP game, and this is probably the last game we see him for under $7k for awhile.

• With Bane, Jackson, and Jones all likely out for Memphis, Luke Kennard ($5,000) and Santi Aldama ($4,400) are top value options now.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Mathurin ($5,600) and Nwora ($5,200) remain top plays at those salaries, along with Jalen Williams ($7,200) and Isaiah Joe ($4,800). Those four make for a strong starting core in cash games.

• Kevin Knox ($4,200) remains one of my favorite p/$ plays from Portland, and Keon Johnson ($5,000) is $700 cheaper than FD, so I prefer using him on DK if you want to target more bench minutes from Portland with the expectation of another blowout. Matisse Thybulle ($3,800) has been pretty volatile over his last five games, but his price did drop another $600, so if he can go for 15-25 FP he will make for a solid value play and help fit in some of the $10k+ options out there. Little ($4,700) & Eubanks ($5,100) are strong values on paper, but again, they may not see the 30+ projected minutes with the blowout risk.

• Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,600) and Mikal Bridges ($7,600) stand out to me as strong p/$ plays on DK in a great matchup with Houston. Dinwiddie dropped $700 in salary after going for under 15 FP last game, but he still brings 50+ FP upside every game and is in a great bounce-back spot against the defensively challenged Rockets. Bridges should be over $8k by now but remains underpriced, especially with b2b games of 45+ FP. He is someone we can count on for big minutes and huge upside with his ability to fill the stat sheet.

• Walker Kessler ($7,300) is the same price as last game, in which he went for 45+ for the second straight game. Today’s matchup with the Spurs gives him an excellent chance to continue his 45+ FP streak. Kessler went for around 38 FP in each of his last two meetings with San Antonio, and he’ll be looking at an even bigger usage rate with Markkanen and Olynyk out today. I like betting the over on his 13.5 points line over at No House Advantage, where that link will provide our promo code for new signups.

• On the Spurs side, Zach Collins ($6,400) is someone to consider as he’s been averaging 40+ FP over his last six starts and will be relied on heavily today with Sochan, Johnson, and Vassell all out. He comes at an $800 discount to FD and dropped $200 in price since the last game, so this is as cheap as we’ll likely see him for a while if he has a big game today.

• With Bane, Jackson, and Jones all likely out for Memphis, Luke Kennard ($5,400) and Santi Aldama ($4,000) are top value options now.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change instantly if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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