NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/31/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-03-31 22:43:16

We have the final four of March Madness tomorrow, but tonight we have the real March madness with one of the craziest DFS NBA slates of the season. 13 games are on tap, but only the Celtics and Nuggets are on a back-to-back so look for their first injury reports later. Boston will likely have a bunch of rest candidates, while Denver is expected to be without at least Jamal Murray and possibly Jokic, Porter, and KCP as well.

Before we learn the statuses of the 20+ questionable players it’s already a daunting slate as far as which top plays to prioritize. Still, there is some good news as ten of the thirteen games tipoff at 8 PM or earlier, so we should know a majority of the injury news before lock. Don’t get too comfortable with any lineups early in the day, as it will be a wild ride with every piece of injury news, and make sure to put later tipoff players in your G/F/UTIL spots on DK to maximize swap options. (pounds a bucket of coffee) Let’s get to it!

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG and provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends on RG.

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• I’ll start with the last game of the night, as Denver will likely list Jokic and KCP as questionable at best, while Murray is closer to doubtful. Bruce Brown is already a strong play as the likely starting PG, and would be a clear top priority if Jokic also ends up out. Thomas Bryant started for Jokic yesterday but only played 13 minutes and is too risky of a play on such a big slate to consider. Christian Braun would likely start at SG if KCP sits, but I likely won’t consider him with so many other games to find safer value from. Porter and Gordon would be in consideration for cash games if all of Murray/Jokic/KCP are out. Michael Porter Jr. is now questionable as well, so Brown, Green, Braun, and Cancar would all absorb his minutes if out, and although Murray is officially listed as Q I’d still treat him as doubtful.

• Tatum, Brown, and Horford are all questionable for Boston on the b2b, so we could be looking at Sam Hauser and Grant Williams starting at the forward spots with either Griffin or Muscala at center if all three Q plays sit. If just one of Tatum and Brown sit then the other one would be a top play of the slate, and both sitting would make Smart, White, and Brogdon all much more appealing plays. Pritchard is also questionable. (Update: Tatum and Brown are IN, Horford and RW are OUT)

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was originally out, but was upgraded to questionable around 12:30PM along with Lindy Waters for OKC. If SGA plays I’ll be much less interested in Giddey and Jalen Williams as cash game locks, but if SGA sits then both would be squarely in play again. (Update: SGA is IN)

• Kawhi Leonard is questionable after missing the last game for personal reasons. If out again, Terance Mann would likely start, while Russell Westbrook would get a big usage bump and be a top play of the slate, as he draws the same matchup with Memphis in which he went for around 60 FP last game with Kawhi out. (Update: Kawhi is IN)

• LeBron James is questionable with foot soreness, although I’d be shocked if he sat with how important these final games are to make the playoffs. Troy Brown or Malik Beasley would likely start if he does somehow sit, and Anthony Davis would have a massive ceiling. (Update: James is IN)

• Myles Turner is questionable with ankle soreness that’s kept him out the last three games. Either Isaiah Jackson or Jalen Smith would start if Turner is out, and all the other starters would get slight usage bumps. (Update: Turner is OUT)

• Tobias Harris questionable for Philly, so either Melton, House, or McDaniels would likely start at SF if he’s out. The other starters would all get slight usage bumps as well. (Update: Harris is OUT)

• Dennis Smith Jr. and Kelly Oubre are questionable for Charlotte, and if both sit Theo Maledon would be looking at huge minutes again as the starting PG. Bryce McGowens would likely start if Oubre is out, while Svi Mykhailiuk and PJ Washington would be more appealing plays if both Q players sit. (Update: Smith and Oubre are OUT)

• Trendon Watford is questionable with an ankle sprain that kept him out last game. If he plays, he’d have to be considered a top play at his current salaries and how thin Portland is today. If Watford sits, Kevin Knox would almost certainly start and be a top play on both sites coming off a game where he saw 39 minutes as a starter.

• Devin Vassell and Romeo Langford are questionable for the Spurs, so guys like Branham, Graham, Wesley, and Bates-Diop would all absorb their minutes if either ends up out. Graham or KBD are the likeliest guys to start if Vassell sits, although Champagnie could see another spot start like last game. Keldon Johnson and Doug McDermott are now questionable as well, so whoever starts for the Spurs could be looking at a lot of minutes if a bunch of the Q guys sit. (Update: Keldon is IN)

• De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson are questionable for Atlanta, so more forward minutes would be available for Bogdanovic, Collins, and Bey if both are out. Bogdanovic would likely start if Hunter sits. (Update: Hunter is OUT, Johnson is IN)

• Gary Trent Jr. and Will Barton are questionable for Toronto, and if either sits we’d see more minutes for Jeff Dowtin and the other available guards/wings off the bench. (Update: Trent and Barton are OUT)

• Daniel Gafford is questionable for Washington. I’d expect a similar situation as the last game, with Porzingis moving to center and Delon Wright starting at SG if Gafford remains out. Porzingis is now questionable with an illness, and if out Avdija would be a must play for me. (Update: Porzingis is OUT, Gafford is IN)

• KJ Martin is questionable for Houston, so Tari Eason would almost certainly start at SF if he ends up out, and Houston’s forward depth would really be tested as their only bench options would be down to Garuba, Christopher, and Kaminsky. (Update: Martin is IN)

• Caruso and Green are questionable for the Bulls, with the latter not being very DFS-relevant. If Caruso sits look for Williams to join the starting lineup while White & Dosunmu would see bumps in minutes too. (Update: Caruso and Green are IN)

• Prince, Nowell, Rivers, and Ryan are all questionable for Minnesota, so guys like Anderson, McLaughlin, and Alexander-Walker would all help cover the minutes of any guys who end up out. Towns is now questionable too, so Anderson would likely start if he sits and Gobert would have a higher ceiling.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Rozier remains out and Hayward is likely out, while Kai Jones should be the odd man out at center as Charlotte rotates two active centers per game. Dennis Smith should start at PG if he plays, while Svi Mykhailiuk will likely start for Hayward, and either Williams or Richards could draw the start at center.

• Haliburton remains out for IND, so Nembhard and McConnell will handle point, while either Hield or Nwora will likely start at SF.

• Beal and Kuzma are still out so Kispert and Avdija should continue to start. Markkanen and Clarkson are still out too, so look for Agbaji and Fontecchio to continue to start.

• Julius Randle is out a couple of weeks with an ankle sprain, so Obi Toppin will likely start at PF for the Knicks. Cleveland will be without Okoro and likely Allen, so LeVert and Stevens should both start again, with Mobley moving to center.

• Eric Gordon and Nicolas Batum will continue to start for George and Morris, and Memphis will get back Bane, Jackson, and Jones after all rested last game.

• The Spurs will be without Collins and Sochan, so Keldon Johnson and Sandro Mamukelashvili should start in the frontcourt, while Bates-Diop will also be heavily involved to help cover PF time.

• Portland remains without their four top starters and Keon Johnson, and now Arcidiacino and Reddish are both doubtful and likely out. They will have 10 players available at best after signing Skylar Mays and Shaq Harrison, and should have a similar starting lineup as last game with either Watford (if active) or Knox starting at PF.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• I’m going to go by position, and at PG I’m looking at Spencer Dinwiddie ($8,000) and Jalen Brunson ($8,500) as cash game targets. Brunson is going to have to carry a lot more offense with Randle out, and Dinwiddie is playing in one of the best game environments of the slate at home against Atlanta. Theo Maledon is now a top PG play as well.

• At SG, I like going with Jalen Williams ($7,600) or Shaedon Sharpe ($7,700) in the $7k range, while Jaden Ivey ($6,900) and RJ Barrett ($6,300) are where I’d go in the $6k range. For extreme value, I’d look to either Bruce Brown ($5,800), Svi Mykhailiuk ($5,200), or Josh Okogie ($4,700).

• At SF, Nassir Little ($4,700) is popping as his price hasn’t changed, and he saw 39 minutes last game but did go for just 11.4 FP. He’ll be hard to fade at that price, especially if Watford sits, but keep in mind that floor he brings. I do prefer Kevin Knox ($5,000) if we’re targeting a Portland SF, as he too saw 39 minutes last game and has gone for around 27 FP in b2b games. Many of the guys I mentioned at SG are also SF-eligible like Williams, Barrett, and Brown. Talen Horton-Tucker ($7,200) is also on my SG/SF radar for cash games, especially if Olynyk ends up out too.

• At PF, I will almost certainly have at least one Portland player between Knox ($5,000), Eubanks ($5,600), and Watford ($6,100) if he plays. Sandro Mamukelashvili ($5,300) also looks like a top p/$ target, as he’s gone for 19.5+ FP in eight straight games, and should be looking at 30+ minutes today as a starter. With all the other CHA guys out, PJ Washington ($7,700) has a massive ceiling now.

• At C we can go with Mamukelashvili or Eubanks for under $6k, while PJ Washington ($7,700), Rudy Gobert ($7,700) or Nic Claxton ($7,600) are where I’d go in the $7k range if you want a little safer floor and higher ceiling.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Until we get more injury news, my cash game core will start with Bruce Brown ($4,700), Sandro Mamukelashvili ($5,000), and likely at least two of Giddey ($8,700), Brunson ($8,000), Bridges ($7,800), and Dinwiddie ($7,800). Obi Toppin ($4,000) also looks like a very strong value play as the likely starter for Randle, and comes at a $1k discount to FD.

• Trendon Watford ($5,900) or Kevin Knox ($5,000) will likely make my main build as well, depending on Watford’s status.

• More guys I’m on now include Deni Avdija, Theo Maledon, and Jaden Ivey.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change instantly if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA Twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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