NBA First Look: Friday, February 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-02-10 00:02:29

We’ve got 12 games on the board for Friday night.

Cleveland

Matchup Preview vs. Indiana:
Pace of Play: 95.5 (Rank: 22)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6

Targets: None – The combination of a poor matchup and the Cavaliers’ being on the tail end of a back-to-back leaves them with little fantasy appeal. The Pacers play at a snail’s pace and are ranked in the top ten in both points allowed per game and rebounding differential.

Indiana

Matchup Preview vs. Cleveland:
Pace of Play: 94.6 (Rank: 24)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8

Targets:

David West (FD: $6600, DK: $6200 / DvP: 17 / Usage Rate: 22.2)

West makes an interesting contrarian play on Friday night. With such a large slate of games, his ownership level will be low. He does have a high floor for a player in his price range though. He also draws a favorable matchup against Kevin Love.

C.J. Miles (FD: $5000, DK: $4000 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 24.1)

Miles drew the start over Solomon Hill on Wednesday night. He finished with a productive 15 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 steals. As long as he remains in the starting lineup tonight, he offers great value on DraftKings at a price of only $4,000.

New York

Matchup Preview vs. Brooklyn:
Pace of Play: 94.3 (Rank: 25)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23

Targets:

Jason Smith (FD: $4700, DK: $5100 / DvP: 23 / Usage Rate: 19.6)

Until his price goes up, we can continue to lock Smith in as a viable value play at power forward. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 25 fantasy points in 33 minutes of action per game.

Brooklyn

Matchup Preview vs. New York:
Pace of Play: 92.8 (Rank: 28)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28

Targets:

Brook Lopez (FD: $6700, DK: $6300 / DvP: 20 / Usage Rate: 26.6)

Lopez is not a great target in cash games, but he does make an interesting contrarian play in tournaments. Over his last four games, he has averaged 36 fantasy points in 34 minutes per game.

L.A. Lakers

Matchup Preview vs. Orlando:
Pace of Play: 96.2 (Rank: 15)
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27

Targets:

Carlos Boozer (FD: $6000, DK: $5700 / DvP: 24 / Usage Rate: 22.6)

Look how many reporters want to talk to Boozer! Alas, he has played his way back into the hearts of DFS’ers across the country with at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He is also in a prime matchup against the Magic.

Jordan Clarkson (FD: $4500, DK: $4600 / DvP: 29 / Usage Rate: 20.9)

Clarkson struggled against the Bucks, but Brandon Knight has that effect on most point guards. In his previous three outings, he had averaged 29 fantasy points in 38 minutes per game.

Orlando

Matchup Preview vs. L.A. Lakers:
Pace of Play: 96.9 (Rank: 9)
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20

Targets:

Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8900, DK: $8100 / DvP: 24 / Usage Rate: 25.5)

The Lakers play at a fast pace, they are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency, and they have allowed their opponents to score an average of 106.1 points per game this season. This game is expected to be close and high scoring. Those two attributes combined are a perfect recipe for fantasy goodness.

Victor Oladipo (FD: $6900, DK: $6600 / DvP: 21 / Usage Rate: 24.6)

See: Nikola Vucevic.

Tobias Harris (FD: $6100, DK: $5800 / DvP: 28 / Usage Rate: 23.7)

See: Victor Oladipo.

Elfrid Payton (FD: $5700, DK: $5500 / DvP: 30 / Usage Rate: 18.2)

See: Tobias Harris.

Golden State

Matchup Preview vs. Atlanta:
Pace of Play: 96 (Rank: 16)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22

Targets:

Stephen Curry (FD: $10400, DK: $10400 / DvP: 17 / Usage Rate: 28.1)

Curry is fresh off of a 51-point outing against the Mavericks. He is basically unstoppable when his shot is falling and the Hawks have really struggled to contain opposing point guards over the last three weeks.

Atlanta

Matchup Preview vs. Golden State:
Pace of Play: 101.3 (Rank: 1)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16

Targets:

Al Horford (FD: $8400, DK: $7900 / DvP: 21 / Usage Rate: 22.4)

Horford doesn’t get the recognition that he deserves. He is always under-owned, despite scoring at least 33 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. It’s hard to pass up a player that has that high of a floor.

DeMarre Carroll (FD: $4900, DK: $4100 / DvP: 10 / Usage Rate: 15.8)

Carroll is a DraftKings’ special on Friday. At $4,100, he needs around 20 fantasy points to reach value expectations. He is certainly capable of that and much more, as he has averaged 22 fantasy points per game this season.

Philadelphia

Matchup Preview vs. Boston:
Pace of Play: 98.7 (Rank: 3)
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19

Targets:

Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $8500, DK: $7900 / DvP: 20 / Usage Rate: 27.6)

MCW has been inconsistent recently, which has kept his price point at a very playable level. He has triple-double type of upside against the Celtics, who have allowed the sixth-most points per game to their opponents this season.

Nerlens Noel (FD: $6000, DK: $5400 / DvP: 29 / Usage Rate: 16)

Nerlens “Don’t Use in Cash Games” Noel is an intriguing tournament option against the Celtics’ frontcourt that continues to give up big fantasy outings to opposing big men.

Boston

Matchup Preview vs. Philadelphia:
Pace of Play: 98 (Rank: 6)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30

Targets:

Avery Bradley (FD: $5100, DK: $4500 / DvP: 29 / Usage Rate: 20.7)

Bradley has scored at least 22 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. His minutes have been up since the Jeff Green trade and his usage rate is surprisingly high for a player that is known by most for his play on the defensive end of the floor.

Marcus Smart (FD: $4900, DK: $4600 / DvP: 22 / Usage Rate: 14.3)

Using Smart against the Sixers is not a dumb play. See what I did there? Smart has averaged 27 fantasy points per game over his last three contests and should see minutes in the mid to upper 30’s.

Denver

Matchup Preview vs. Detroit:
Pace of Play: 95.8 (Rank: 18)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9

Targets:

Arron Afflalo (FD: $5500, DK: $5500 / DvP: 15 / Usage Rate: 20.1)

Afflalo has had some awful outings recently, which has kept his price at a very playable level. Even with his few bad outings, he has still scored at least 25 fantasy points in five times in his last nine games.

Detroit

Matchup Preview vs. Denver:
Pace of Play: 98.4 (Rank: 5)
Points Allowed Per Game: 104 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13

Targets:

Greg Monroe (FD: $8200, DK: $8200 / DvP: 28 / Usage Rate: 23.7)

The Monroe fantasy bomb is ticking and it’s about to go OFF! His price is sitting at a very playable level and he draws a dream matchup against the Nuggets, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.

D.J. Augustin (FD: $7200, DK: $6600 / DvP: 15 / Usage Rate: 22)

Augustin is either going to score less than 20 fantasy points or more than 45 fantasy points. Not really, but that’s how he has been playing recently. The Nuggets are a terrific matchup for Augustin, as their defense was last seen on the side of the milk carton.

L.A. Clippers

Matchup Preview vs. Toronto:
Pace of Play: 95.7 (Rank: 20)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16

Targets:

Chris Paul (FD: $9700, DK: $9200 / DvP: 19 / Usage Rate: 22.7)

The Clippers will look to bounce back after being blown out by the Cavaliers on Thursday night. They should put up a much better performance against the Raptors and that starts with their point guard, Chris Paul.

Jamal Crawford (FD: $5200, DK: $5000 / DvP: 7 / Usage Rate: 28.1)

Crawford will see a fantasy boost if J.J. Redick is ruled out again.

Toronto

Matchup Preview vs. L.A. Clippers:
Pace of Play: 96.3 (Rank: 13)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18

Targets:

DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6900, DK: $6800 / DvP: 16 / Usage Rate: 27.8)

The Clippers have struggled to defend talented wing players this season and $6,800-$6,900 is too cheap for a prolific scorer like DeRozan. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in four of his last seven games.

Milwaukee

Matchup Preview vs. Houston:
Pace of Play: 98.5 (Rank: 4)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11

Targets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6400, DK: $6000 / DvP: 23 / Usage Rate: 19.3)

Over his last five games, The Greek Alphabet has averaged 31.5 fantasy points in 37 minutes per game. He should continue to see extended playing time, especially if Zaza Pachulia and Ersan Ilyasova are forced out of Friday’s game.

John Henson and Jared Dudley would both become viable fantasy options if Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia are ruled out again.

Houston

Matchup Preview vs. Milwaukee:
Pace of Play: 96.3 (Rank: 13)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21

Targets:

James Harden (FD: $10800, DK: $10300 / DvP: 8 / Usage Rate: 31.2)

This pick is simple: Dwight Howard is out and Harden is under $11,000. If Kevin Durant plays, Harden will likely have the highest usage rate of any player on Friday night’s schedule.

Donatas Motiejunas (FD: $5800, DK: $6000 / DvP: 10 / Usage Rate: 18.7)

Motiejunas has scored at least 24 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games and he has averaged 32 fantasy points per game in his last three. With Dwight Howard out, Motiejunas remains the Rockets’ big that we want to have exposure to.

Memphis

Matchup Preview vs. Minnesota:
Pace of Play: 97.5 (Rank: 7)
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24

Targets:

Marc Gasol (FD: $8300, DK: $7800 / DvP: 28 / Usage Rate: 25.1)

The T-Wolves have struggled to defend centers this season, although they will likely improve in that area with Nikola Pekovic back in the mix. Gasol is about as matchup-proof as they come and should fill up the stat sheet against the team that owns the worst defense in the NBA.

Zach Randolph (FD: $8700, DK: $8500 / DvP: 25 / Usage Rate: 24.4)

Randolph is in the same boat as Gasol. The T-Wolves do not defend the paint well and are ranked 24th in rebounding differential. Randolph has been a walking double-double recently and should continue that against the T-Wolves.

Minnesota

Matchup Preview vs. Memphis:
Pace of Play: 94.1 (Rank: 26)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14

Targets:

Kevin Martin (FD: $6500, DK: $5700 / DvP: 17 / Usage Rate: 27.5)

Martin has been terrific since coming back from injury. Over his last five games, he has averaged 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Martin played 40 minutes against the Heat the other night and he should see extended action again on Friday, as the T-Wolves take on the Grizzlies.

New Orleans

Matchup Preview vs. Oklahoma City:
Pace of Play: 96.9 (Rank: 9)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4

Targets:

Anthony Davis (FD: $11400, DK: $10800 / DvP: 19 / Usage Rate: 26.8)

Davis has scored at least 51 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He has also had much better splits on the road than he has at home. He has averaged nearly seven more fantasy points per game on the road this season.

Oklahoma City

Matchup Preview vs. New Orleans:
Pace of Play: 94.1 (Rank: 26)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3

Editor’s Note: Kevin Durant (toe) is expected to play tonight.

Targets:

Russell Westbrook (FD: $11200, DK: $10900 / DvP: 21 / Usage Rate: 36.8)

Westbrook is close to must start if Kevin Durant is ruled out of this game. He faced this same Pelicans team the other night and finished the game with 45 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. Dion Waiters would also see a sizable boost if Durant is forced to sit out.

Utah

Matchup Preview vs. Phoenix:
Pace of Play: 99.2 (Rank: 2)
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24

Targets:

Gordon Hayward (FD: $8100, DK: $7800 / DvP: 22 / Usage Rate: 25)

Hayward has shown that he has 50 fantasy point upside and he draws a favorable matchup against the Suns, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.

Phoenix

Matchup Preview vs. Utah:
Pace of Play: 92.8 (Rank: 28)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2

Targets:

Markieff Morris (FD: $6400, DK: $5900 / DvP: 15 / Usage Rate: 22.9)

The Suns are a tough team to predict on a nightly basis. Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic are in play here, but with 11 other games on the schedule, it’s not hard to find better plays at their respective positions. Morris deserves consideration though, as he has averaged 29 fantasy points per game over his last five outings.

Miami

Matchup Preview vs. San Antonio:
Pace of Play: 95.6 (Rank: 21)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10

Targets:

Hassan Whiteside (FD: $8000, DK: $8000 / DvP: 19 / Usage Rate: 21.2)

Editor’s Note: Hassan Whiteside is considered doubtful to play tonight.

This is a terrible spot for the Heat as a whole, but it’s going to be tough to fade Whiteside. He has averaged 1.40 fantasy points per minute this season and is starting to see minutes in the mid 30’s.

San Antonio

Matchup Preview vs. Miami:
Pace of Play: 91.8 (Rank: 30)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24

Targets:

Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8200, DK: $7700 / DvP: 23 / Usage Rate: 22.5)

Leonard continues to play well for the Spurs, scoring at least 36 fantasy points in four of his last five games. This game does have the potential to turn into a blowout though, which leaves Leonard as a better tournament play than a cash game play.