NBA First Look: Monday, February 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-02-25 15:11:23

There are eight games on the schedule for Monday night.

Philadelphia

Matchup Preview vs. Miami:
Pace of Play: 92.2 (Rank: 30)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23

Targets:

Nerlens Noel (FD: $6100, DK: $5600 / DvP: 4 / Usage Rate: 16) – With Michael Carter-Williams and K.J. McDaniels out of the picture, this is now Noel’s team for the rest of the season. He draws a decent matchup against the short-handed frontcourt of the Heat and he has played well recently, averaging 33.8 fantasy points over his last four games.

Isaiah Canaan (FD: $3500, DK: $3000 / DvP: 17 / Usage Rate: 19.9) – Canaan played well in his first start with the Sixers. He played 29 minutes against the Magic, putting up a respectable stat line of 14 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists. He should see close to 30 minutes against the Heat and he’s still priced at the bare minimum.

Miami

Matchup Preview vs. Philadelphia:
Pace of Play: 98.1 (Rank: 6)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29

Targets:

Hassan Whiteside (FD: $7800, DK: $7800 / DvP: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.3) – When Whiteside gets minutes, two things are certain. He’s going to get rebounds and he’s going to get dunks. He draws what may be the most favorable matchup on Monday night’s schedule. The Sixers are ranked 30th against centers and 29th in rebounding differential.

Dwyane Wade (FD: $7600, DK: $7200 / DvP: 29 / Usage Rate: 34) – Wade has struggled in his first two games back from injury. He also has a ball-dominant guard in Goran Dragic to share the backcourt with. Even with those concerns, he makes a strong play against the Sixers. His price is depressed and the Sixers are ranked 29th against shooting guards.

Toronto

Matchup Preview vs. New Orleans:
Pace of Play: 94 (Rank: 27)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6

Targets:

DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6700, DK: $7300 / DvP: 13 / Usage Rate: 28) – DeRozan is the one reliable Raptors’ player that you can count on to see major playing time and a high usage rate each and every night. His price is affordable across the industry and the matchup against the Pelicans isn’t one that we need to avoid.

James Johnson (FD: $4500, DK: $4800 / DvP: 11 / Usage Rate: 16.5) – Basically Saturday night came down to whether or not you rostered Johnson. We expected a small boost with Lou Williams out, but no one expected him to put up 47 fantasy points against the Rockets. Give him a small boost once again if Williams is forced out of Monday’s game.

New Orleans

Matchup Preview vs. Toronto:
Pace of Play: 96 (Rank: 16)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17

Targets:

Tyreke Evans (FD: $8000, DK: $8000 / DvP: 18 / Usage Rate: 25.7) – Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson are both out. Evans’ already-high usage rate will only go up while those two players are on the shelf. He can fill up the stat sheet, he should be the number one option offensively, and he draws a decent matchup against Kyle Lowry.

Alexis Ajinca (FD: $4200, DK: $4000 / DvP: 9 / Usage Rate: 19.5) – Ajinca will likely draw the start at PF with both Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson out. He has been very productive in limited minutes this season (1.06 fantasy points per minute) and should see a sizable uptick in that category against the Raptors.

Eric Gordon and Omer Asik are also in play with both Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson out.

Milwaukee

Matchup Preview vs. Chicago:
Pace of Play: 95.7 (Rank: 19)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7

Targets:

Jerryd Bayless (FD: $4100, DK: $4400 / DvP: 9 / Usage Rate: 19.1) – Antetokounmpo is also in play here, but he has cooled off in his last couple of games. If Michael Carter-Williams is unable to make his Bucks debut, Bayless would immediately become one of the top values on the board. Bayless has averaged 29 fantasy points per game in his last two starts.

Chicago

Matchup Preview vs. Milwaukee:
Pace of Play: 96.3 (Rank: 14)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22

Targets:

Joakim Noah (FD: $6800, DK: $6900 / DvP: 10 / Usage Rate: 14) – Pau Gasol is also in play here, but it’s hard to justify his price tag against a defensive-minded Bucks’ team. Noah on the other hand is much cheaper. He has also been playing well recently, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games.

Minnesota

Matchup Preview vs. Houston:
Pace of Play: 99 (Rank: 3)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11

Targets:

Kevin Martin (FD: $6800, DK: $6600 / DvP: 25 / Usage Rate: 26.2) – Martin has been on fire over his last ten games, averaging 30 fantasy points per contest. There is no reason to think that he will slow down against a Rockets’ team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.

Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6500, DK: $6200 / DvP: 19 / Usage Rate: 21.4) – Wiggins’ usage rate isn’t quite as high as it once was, but he is still playing close to 40 minutes per game. He’s going to be a star in this league and Monday night offers us a great chance to buy low on the future Rookie of the Year.

Houston

Matchup Preview vs. Minnesota:
Pace of Play: 97.4 (Rank: 8)
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21

Targets:

James Harden (FD: $10600, DK: $10500 / DvP: 23 / Usage Rate: 31.2) – Harden has only topped 40 fantasy points one time in his last four games. Is the world coming to an end? Of course not. Opponents still fear the beard and this is the prefect matchup for Harden to get back on track.

Josh Smith (FD: $6300, DK: $6800 / DvP: 30 / Usage Rate: 24.7) – Smith has been extremely productive off the bench with Dwight Howard out. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in six of his last ten games. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Wolves’ team that struggles to defend power forwards.

Brooklyn

Matchup Preview vs. Denver:
Pace of Play: 98.3 (Rank: 5)
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14

Targets:

Deron Williams (FD: $5300, DK: $5800 / DvP: 15 / Usage Rate: 22.4) – Jarrett Jack is doubtful for this game, which means Williams will likely draw another start at point guard. He’s coming off of his best game in months and he should be able to back it up against a Nuggets’ team that has all but given up on the season.

Joe Johnson (FD: $6100, DK: $5800 / DvP: 28 / Usage Rate: 21.9) – Johnson continues to fly under the radar, despite scoring at least 28 fantasy points in five of his last nine games. With Arron Afflalo in Portland, Johnson will match up against the much slower Danilo Gallinari. He offers great value at his price point.

Denver

Matchup Preview vs. Brooklyn:
Pace of Play: 94.2 (Rank: 25)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24

Targets:

Danilo Gallinari (FD: $3600, DK: $4400 / DvP: 6 / Usage Rate: 20.2) – Gallinari is the only Nuggets’ player that is on my radar on Monday night. With Arron Afflalo in Portland, Gallinari is now the starting shooting guard in Denver. His price is still very affordable and this may be the last time to target him at this price point.

Boston

Matchup Preview vs. Phoenix:
Pace of Play: 99.2 (Rank: 2)
Points Allowed Per Game: 105 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26

Targets:

Brandon Bass (FD: $4600, DK: $5200 / DvP: 8 / Usage Rate: 21) – Jared Sullinger is out and it doesn’t sound like Kelly Olynyk will be playing in this game either. Bass has averaged 38 minutes and 28 fantasy points in his last two games. He should continue to see all of the minutes that he can handle against the Suns.

Tyler Zeller (FD: $4500, DK: $5000 / DvP: 8 / Usage Rate: 19.3) – The same goes for Zeller. With Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk out, he will continue to see extended action for the Celtics.

Phoenix

Matchup Preview vs. Boston:
Pace of Play: 98.6 (Rank: 4)
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17

Targets:

Markieff Morris (FD: $6100, DK: $6400 / DvP: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.4) – It’s only a matter of time before Brandon Knight enters the starting lineup. I’m interested to see how that affects Eric Bledsoe’s play. For that reason, I will be avoiding the Suns’ backcourt. The Suns’ bigs draws a very favorable matchup against an under-manned, under-sized frontcourt of the Celtics.

Alex Len (FD: $4500, DK: $4000 / DvP: 29 / Usage Rate: 13.3) – Len’s price has come up a bit, but he is still priced at a discount. He has scored 33 and 25 fantasy points in his last two games and should show up in a big way against the Celtics.

San Antonio

Matchup Preview vs. Utah:
Pace of Play: 92.7 (Rank: 29)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.7 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3

Targets:

Tony Parker (FD: $5400, DK: $5000 / DvP: 8 / Usage Rate: 24.8) – This game offers little fantasy appeal, but Parker remains an interesting contrarian play at point guard. He has 30+ fantasy point type of upside and he’s still listed in the $5,000 range on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Utah

Matchup Preview vs. San Antonio:
Pace of Play: 95.5 (Rank: 21)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10

Targets:

Rudy Gobert (FD: $5700, DK: $5200 / DvP: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.4) – The unstoppable force of nature that is Rudy Gobert picked up two fouls in the first four minutes the other night. He still managed to score 24 fantasy points in 24 minutes though. Assuming he can stay out of foul trouble, he should see 30+ minutes against the Spurs.

Memphis

Matchup Preview vs. L.A. Clippers:
Pace of Play: 96.7 (Rank: 11)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19

Targets:

Zach Randolph (FD: $8500, DK: $8100 / DvP: 13 / Usage Rate: 24.5) – Mike Conley draws a tough matchup against Chris Paul. Marc Gasol draws a relatively tough matchup against DeAndre Jordan. And finally, the Grizzlies’ wings are far too inconsistent. That leaves us with Mr. Z-Bo, who should dominate the paint against Spencer Hawes.

L.A. Clippers

Matchup Preview vs. Memphis:
Pace of Play: 94.2 (Rank: 25)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.7 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12

Targets:

Chris Paul (FD: $10000, DK: $10000 / DvP: 4 / Usage Rate: 22.6) – This is an interesting situation. We rarely like to overpay for players in tough matchups, but Paul’s uptick in usage and production with Griffin out complicates things. I expect another quality outing from Paul, I’m just not completely sold on him being able to reach value at his price point.

DeAndre Jordan (FD: $8900, DK: $8800 / DvP: 5 / Usage Rate: 12.8) – The same goes for Jordan. We have to pay a premium for him in a tough matchup. He’s been dominant with Griffin out, but can we really expect a 45 fantasy point outing against Marc Gasol and the Grizzlies?