NBA First Look: Monday, February 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-02-04 13:22:08

There are eight games coming up on Monday night.

(Odds are subject to change throughout the day.)

Philadelphia

Matchup Preview vs. Cleveland:
Pace of Play: 94.6 (Rank: 24)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8

Targets:

Nerlens Noel (FD: $5700, DK: $5200 / DvP: 15 / Usage Rate: 16.1)

The Sixers are 16.5-point underdogs in this one, so don’t get carried away here. Noel is a good value play though. Over his last nine games, he is averaging 10 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals per game. He is also facing a less than intimidating frontcourt of the Cavaliers.

Cleveland

Matchup Preview vs. Philadelphia:
Pace of Play: 97.9 (Rank: 6)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30

Targets:

Timofey Mozgov (FD: $5200, DK: $5000 / DvP: 30 / Usage Rate: 15.3)

Given the potential blowout here, LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love are all overpriced at their respective positions. Mozgov is worth a look at center though. The Sixers are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to centers this season. They are also the worst rebounding team in the NBA.

Charlotte

Matchup Preview vs. Washington:
Pace of Play: 95.9 (Rank: 18)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3

Targets:

Al Jefferson (FD: $8200, DK: $7600 / DvP: 3 / Usage Rate: 26.7)

In his two games since rejoining the starting lineup, Jefferson has posted fantasy outings of 39 and 33 fantasy points. While the matchup against the Wizards’ tough frontcourt isn’t ideal, he is still underpriced on DraftKings. He should continue to have an extremely high usage rate with Kemba Walker sidelined.

Washington

Matchup Preview vs. Charlotte:
Pace of Play: 95.2 (Rank: 23)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13

Targets:

Bradley Beal (FD: $5800, DK: $5900 / DvP: 21 / Usage Rate: 22)

Beal is coming off of a terrific outing against the Raptors, where he had 26 points, 3 rebounds, and 4 assists. His price is also depressed, which provides us with a buy-low opportunity. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Hornets, who have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.

L.A. Clippers

Matchup Preview vs. Brooklyn:
Pace of Play: 94.4 (Rank: 25)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23

Targets:

Blake Griffin (FD: $9700, DK: $9600 / DvP: 24 / Usage Rate: 29.3)

Griffin has been on a tear recently, scoring at least 42 fantasy points in six of his last nine games. During that stretch, he has averaged 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. He should be able to dominate the Nets’ frontcourt on both ends of the floor.

J.J. Redick (FD: $4600, DK: $3600 / DvP: 25 / Usage Rate: 19.8)

This pick is all about value. Redick is cheap on FanDuel and is an absolute bargain on DraftKings. He has been a little inconsistent this season, but should see between 28-30 minutes against a Nets’ team that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.

Brooklyn

Matchup Preview vs. L.A. Clippers:
Pace of Play: 96.2 (Rank: 14)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17

Targets:

Joe Johnson (FD: $6000, DK: $5600 / DvP: 14 / Usage Rate: 22.5)

Johnson missed Sunday’s practice for personal reasons. Assuming that he is able to play against Clippers, he makes a fine option at shooting guard. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in four of his last six and gets to face a Clippers’ team that has struggled to defend wing players this season.

Milwaukee

Matchup Preview vs. Toronto:
Pace of Play: 95.9 (Rank: 18)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16

Editor’s Note: Brandon Knight (quad) has been ruled out for tonight.

Targets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $5900, DK: $5600 / DvP: 6 / Usage Rate: 19.4)

Over his last four games, The Greek Alphabet is averaging 27 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action per game. He has seen a nice uptick in production with Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia out. He should see a large bulk of minutes again on Monday, as the Bucks take on the Raptors.

Toronto

Matchup Preview vs. Milwaukee:
Pace of Play: 96.5 (Rank: 13)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20

Targets:

DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6800, DK: $7000 / DvP: 10 / Usage Rate: 28)

Lou Williams has been on a tear over his last three games, but his price has come way up. For only around $1,500 more, you can take DeRozan, who starts and is highly likely to see 35+ minutes of action. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in four of his last five games and is still affordable across the industry.

Atlanta

Matchup Preview vs. New Orleans:
Pace of Play: 94.1 (Rank: 27)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5

Targets:

Kyle Korver (FD: $5100, DK: $5200 / DvP: 16 / Usage Rate: 14.4)

Korver and the Hawks continue to win basketball games. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in four straight and draws a favorable matchup against Eric Gordon and the Pelicans, who are ranked 16th in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards this season.

New Orleans

Matchup Preview vs. Atlanta:
Pace of Play: 96 (Rank: 17)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.1 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21

Targets:

Tyreke Evans (FD: $8200, DK: $7900 / DvP: 16 / Usage Rate: 26.2)

Anthony Davis should play in this game, as he practiced on Sunday and is listed as probable. While he is a viable option, Evans has the better matchup of the two. The Hawks have struggled to defend point guards recently and Evans has shown that he has 50 fantasy point upside, especially at home.

Orlando

Matchup Preview vs. Oklahoma City:
Pace of Play: 97.1 (Rank: 9)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3

Targets:

Nikola Vucevic (FD: $9000, DK: $8500 / DvP: 4 / Usage Rate: 25.6)

Vucevic has really excelled in this new uptempo style of offense. Over his last six games, he is averaging 23 points and 14 rebounds per game. While the Thunder have been stout against opposing centers this season, Vucevic should have no problem posting another double-double. He currently has seven of them in his last ten games.

Victor Oladipo (FD: $6900, DK: $6800 / DvP: 12 / Usage Rate: 24.4)

Oladipo missed the game the other night due to an Achilles injury. Obviously his fantasy appeal hinges on his health, but if he gets the green light to play, he should excel in what is expected to be the fastest-paced game of the night. If he is forced to sit, Evan Fournier would make a terrific value play.

Oklahoma City

Matchup Preview vs. Orlando:
Pace of Play: 96.2 (Rank: 14)
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28

Targets:

Kevin Durant (FD: $10900, DK: $10000 / DvP: 27 / Usage Rate: 29.3)

The Magic have turned into one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. Over the last three weeks, they have averaged 105.0 possessions per 48 minutes. The Thunder could easily score 120+ points in this one and there should be plenty of food at the table for everyone to eat. Durant is an easy play in this matchup, especially on DraftKings where he is listed at a price of only $10,000.

Russell Westbrook (FD: $10900, DK: $10100 / DvP: 29 / Usage Rate: 37)

The pace of this game should be the fastest of the night. You know who is extremely difficult to stop in the open floor? Russell Westbrook, that’s who! He’s an elite play at point guard against the Magic, who have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to the position this season.

Minnesota

Matchup Preview vs. Dallas:
Pace of Play: 96.6 (Rank: 12)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29

Targets:

Thaddeus Young (FD: $6800, DK: $6200 / DvP: 16 / Usage Rate: 22.2)

Ricky Rubio and Mo Williams are both tentatively expected to play in this game. That shouldn’t impact Young though, as he is currently seeing all of the playing time that he can handle. Over his last five games, he has averaged 31 fantasy points in 40 minutes of action per game.

Kevin Martin (FD: $6500, DK: $5100 / DvP: 7 / Usage Rate: 26.6)

Martin may be a little too expensive on FanDuel, but he’s still a top shooting guard option on DraftKings. He was inserted into the starting lineup the other night and he has scored at least 23 fantasy points in all three of his games since returning from his injury.

Dallas

Matchup Preview vs. Minnesota:
Pace of Play: 97.6 (Rank: 7)
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23

Targets:

Monta Ellis (FD: $7800, DK: $7500 / DvP: 24 / Usage Rate: 28.7)

Rajon Rondo is not expected to play in this game. Devin Harris should draw the start at point guard, but Ellis will see a sizable boost in usage. Ellis had 25 points and 13 assists in Rondo’ absence against the Magic and should be one of the most popular plays on the board Monday.

Devin Harris (FD: $3500, DK: $3100 / DvP: 28 / Usage Rate: 17.6)

This is your classic injury plug-and-play. With Rondo out, Harris should draw the start and see at least 25 minutes of action. He should be able to reach value with ease against the T-Wolves, who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to point guards this season.

Memphis

Matchup Preview vs. Phoenix:
Pace of Play: 99.3 (Rank: 2)
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23

Targets:

Zach Randolph (FD: $8600, DK: $8600 / DvP: 8 / Usage Rate: 24.1)

Randolph has been a man amongst boys recently. In his last 10 games, he has averaged 19 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He has also posted a double-double in every single game during that stretch. His solid play should continue against Markieff Morris and the Suns.

Phoenix

Matchup Preview vs. Memphis:
Pace of Play: 94.2 (Rank: 26)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14

Targets: None – This will be a pace-down game for the Suns. While they are projected to score 101.5 points in this one, that is considerably lower than their season average of 106.8. We can safely avoid all Suns’ players against the Grizzlies.