NBA First Look: Thursday, February 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-02-07 13:58:45

Four games are on the docket for Thursday.

Washington

Matchup Preview vs. Charlotte:
Pace of Play: 95.2 (Rank: 23)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13

Targets:

John Wall (FD: $9300, DK: $8900 / DvP: 5 / Usage Rate: 25)

The Wizards fell short against the Hawks on Wednesday night. They are playing the tail end of a back-to-back on Thursday against the Hornets. Wall doesn’t have a great matchup on paper, but the Hornets haven’t defended point guards as well since Kemba Walker went down with his injury.

Marcin Gortat (FD: $5300, DK: $5000 / DvP: 6 / Usage Rate: 18.1)

We finally saw some signs of life from Gortat. He played well against the Hawks with 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 assists before fouling out. His price is at it’s lowest point of the season and he may be asked to play additional minutes against the Hornets, as he will be tasked with defending Al Jefferson.

Charlotte

Matchup Preview vs. Washington:
Pace of Play: 95.8 (Rank: 20)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4

Targets:

Al Jefferson (FD: $8100, DK: $7600 / DvP: 3 / Usage Rate: 26.6)

Jefferson has one of the highest usage rates among centers this season. While his matchup against Marcin Gortat is less than ideal, Jefferson has been extremely efficient recently. He has averaged 36 fantasy points in 30 minutes of action over his last six games. He should see closer to 35 minutes against the Wizards.

Brian Roberts (FD: $4300, DK: $4500 / DvP: 8 / Usage Rate: 18.7)

Roberts is starting to get his feet underneath him now that he is the Hornets’ starting point guard for the foreseeable future. He has averaged 22 fantasy points per game over his last five outings and should see 30+ minutes of playing time against the Wizards.

L.A. Clippers

Matchup Preview vs. Cleveland:
Pace of Play: 94.6 (Rank: 24)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8

Targets:

Chris Paul (FD: $9700, DK: $9200 / DvP: 9 / Usage Rate: 22.7)

It’s early, but as of now, Paul is my favorite play at point guard on Thursday’s short slate. His price is reasonable across the industry and Paul is one of those players that is at his best in big games. A nationally televised matchup against LeBron James and the Cavaliers qualifies as a big game.

Blake Griffin (FD: $9600, DK: $9400 / DvP: 15 / Usage Rate: 28.9)

Love and Griffin used to produce at a similar level. It hasn’t been very close this season. Griffin is the much better option of the two on Thursday. Griffin has scored at least 42 fantasy points in six of his last ten games and should have another solid all-around performance in this one.

Cleveland

Matchup Preview vs. L.A. Clippers:
Pace of Play: 96.3 (Rank: 14)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16

Targets:

LeBron James (FD: $11000, DK: $10500 / DvP: 15 / Usage Rate: 32.1)

Over his last seven games, James has averaged 25 points, 6 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. He has his team playing at an incredibly high level and he draws a favorable matchup against a Clippers team that has struggled to defend wing players this season. James is on triple-double alert in this one.

Timofey Mozgov (FD: $5500, DK: $5200 / DvP: 17 / Usage Rate: 15.6)

Mozgov has scored at least 20 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. He has averaged 26 fantasy points per game during that stretch. His minutes are still inconsistent, but he’s a decent value play at center.

Dallas

Matchup Preview vs. Sacramento:
Pace of Play: 97.3 (Rank: 8)
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1

Targets: The Mavericks lost a 22-point lead Wednesday night against the Warriors, but get right back on the horse on Thursday. They draw an extremely favorable matchup against the Kings, who have allowed the fourth-most points per game this season. All five starters are viable options in this one. Devin Harris is also in play off the bench. On a night with only four games, it may not be a bad idea to load up on Mavericks.

Sacramento

Matchup Preview vs. Dallas:
Pace of Play: 96.5 (Rank: 12)
Points Allowed Per Game: 101 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29

Targets:

DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $11100, DK: $10600 / DvP: 15 / Usage Rate: 33.5)

Cousins is coming off of yet another 50 fantasy point outing. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in four of his last nine games and should be considered the top overall play on Thursday night. In his two previous meetings against the Mavericks this season, he has averaged 24 points, 14 rebounds, and 7 assists per game.

Darren Collison (FD: $6800, DK: $6500 / DvP: 24 / Usage Rate: 21)

Collison has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. While he doesn’t have a ton of upside, he does provide a high floor for a player in his price range. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Mavericks, who let Stephen Curry score 51 points last night.

Phoenix

Matchup Preview vs. Portland:
Pace of Play: 96.7 (Rank: 11)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15

Targets:

Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8600, DK: $8000 / DvP: 8 / Usage Rate: 23.7)

Bledsoe is typically a little too expensive to use in cash games, but he is in play on Thursday night given the limited number of options at shooting guard. Bledsoe has 40 fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor and this game is expected to be close and high scoring. Two characteristics we love to see in daily fantasy basketball.

Markieff Morris (FD: $6400, DK: $5900 / DvP: 2 / Usage Rate: 22.9)

Morris has played well over his last four games, averaging 15 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He has also seen a heavy dose of minutes during that stretch. He draws a tough matchup against LaMarcus Aldridge, but still provides good value at power forward. He’s under $6,000 on DraftKings.

Portland

Matchup Preview vs. Phoenix:
Pace of Play: 99.2 (Rank: 2)
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25

Targets:

Damian Lillard (FD: $8800, DK: $8700 / DvP: 15 / Usage Rate: 26.6)

Aldridge is in play here, but I’d rather target some of the other superstars that are playing (James, Cousins, Paul, Griffin). Lillard has scored at least 39 fantasy points in three straight games and is playing with a chip on his shoulder after being snubbed from the All-Star team.

Wesley Matthews (FD: $5900, DK: $6000 / DvP: 19 / Usage Rate: 20)

Matthews has averaged 27 fantasy points per game over his last nine outings. He had 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists the last time he faced the Suns and he should be in for another strong game here. The Suns have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.

Nicolas Batum (FD: $5600, DK: $5000 / DvP: 19 / Usage Rate: 14.7)

While it’s hard to use a single game against an opponent as a base for suggesting a player, it’s hard to ignore Batum’s last game against the Suns. He finished the game with 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists. Granted, LaMarcus Aldridge wasn’t playing, but Batum will have some added confidence heading into this game.