NBA GPP Plays: Wednesday, February 4th
When building an NBA DFS GPP lineup, the main concept to keep in mind is upside.
You really want to build a lineup full of guys that have tremendous potential and high ceilings. NBA DFS is a little bit different than the other sports, as there is much more predictability due to the high volume of action in games.
This article will not focus on one site, but the idea here will be to present some players that are in good spots for large-field, GPP-style tournaments across the industry.
Point Guard
D.J. Augustin – Since Brandon Jennings went down with a season-ending injury, Augustin has been spectacular, with the exception of one bad game. The matchup on Wednesday appears to be less than ideal, but if you dig a little deeper you will realize the Pacers have displayed some extreme vulnerability against the point guard position this season. Augustin will be overlooked today by many due to this perceived difficult matchup. He is cash game playable but an ideal GPP candidate.
Russell Westbrook – Kevin Durant is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game, which mean Russell Westbrook’s insane usage rate will be on full display tonight against the Pelicans. Westbrook was basically a must own player on Monday night in order to have any chance at placing in a GPP tournament, and I would not be surprised if that was the case again today. I anticipate this to be a close game (no Vegas line yet), so Westbrook should see all the minutes he can handle. He is a guy that you should not fade in your cash game or tournament lineups tonight.
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal – Beal is a guy I typically only consider for my GPP lineups unless the matchup is very good. Tonight the Wizards square off with the Hawks, who possess one of the league’s best team defenses. The Hawks’ biggest vulnerability is definitely against the shooting guard position, as Kyle Korver is a below average defender. I would not trust Beal for my cash game lineups, however, he is once again an excellent target for tournament play.
Wayne Ellington – The Lakers are so banged up right now that Wayne Ellington is getting all the minutes he can handle. In his last three games, he has played 36, 46 and then 38 minutes. The production has been decent for Ellington, but the minutes really provide an opportunity for much more. He has shown 40-fantasy-point upside this season, so I would not hesitate to target him for GPPs.
Small Forward
Andrew Wiggins – The Timberwolves are slowing starting to get healthy, which initially caused some concern for Wiggins’ playing time. That concern was quickly pushed aside, as Wiggins has played at least 40 minutes in four out of his last six games. This proves that the Timberwolves are committed to developing their young rising star. Wiggins’ production has been somewhat inconsistent, yet we have seen 50-fantasy-point upside out of him this season. This game against Miami is projected to stay close (MIN -2.5), which means Wiggins should receive his full allotment of minutes, making him a great GPP option.
Al-Farouq Aminu – I usually do not target guys that play such limited minutes for my tournament lineups, but I’m willing to make an exception for Aminu tonight. His recent play has basically forced Rick Carlisle to leave him on the court for extended periods of time. Aminu has played over 20 minutes in four straight games and the production has been over a fantasy point per minute. Additionally, as we have seen all season long, the Warriors have blown out teams on their home court consistently. If a blowout were to occur, Aminu would be in line for some much desired garbage time.
Power Forward
Zach Randolph – Randolph’s price has reached a level that I am not comfortable investing in for my cash game lineups. His recent run of 12 straight double-doubles (ended last game) catapulted his price to extreme levels. Randolph will be severely low owned tonight for a multitude of reasons (high price, unappealing DFS game, many options at PF), and he obviously has huge upside due to his ability to rack up monstrous double-doubles. When you take all of this into consideration, Randolph is one of my favorite GPP-only plays tonight.
Jared Sullinger – Sullinger is cash game playable tonight – the reason I have him listed as a GPP play is simply due to the fact that I do not trust head coach Brad Stevens. Stevens has shown the propensity to go ahead and shuffle his rotation at any time for no particular reason, and that scares me. Sullinger is in a great spot tonight against the Nuggets, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. The Nuggets appear to be playing with minimal effort right now, as the team has quit on Brian Shaw. Sullinger is a very strong play in all formats tonight.
Editor’s Note: Sullinger has been benched for showing up late to shootaround for a second time. Tyler Zeller will start. Sullinger is a riskier play with this news.
Center
Joakim Noah – Noah has recently been working his way back into consideration for DFSers after being written off early this season. From a fantasy perspective, Noah has been terrible this season, mostly due to the addition of Pau Gasol. If you take a look at the recent production for Noah, you will realize that his last three games have been very reminiscent of the Noah from last season. In these last three games, Noah has been very productive in all fantasy categories. The matchup tonight is solid as well due to the Rockets playing without Dwight Howard. I love Noah for GPPs tonight.