NBA GPP Plays: Wednesday, January 28th
When building an NBA DFS GPP lineup, the main concept to keep in mind is upside.
You really want to build a lineup full of guys that have tremendous potential and high ceilings. NBA DFS is a little bit different than the other sports, as there is much more predictability due to the high volume of action in games.
This article will not focus on one site, but the idea here will be to present some players that are in good spots for large-field, GPP-style tournaments across the industry.
Point Guard
Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers – Kyrie Irving has turned into more of tournament play, due to the addition of LeBron James. With that being said, Kyrie is still logging some heavy minutes (at least 36 in nine out of last 10 games). The shift from cash game play to tournament play is simply due to the fact that if King James chooses to take control of a game, Irving will have a very difficult time getting enough shot attempts or peripheral statistics to achieve value. Still, the matchup against Portland tonight has a high over/under of 204, and Kyrie is still capable of getting hot and manufacturing a monster performance on any given night, which puts him on the GPP map.
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors – With all the star power available tonight, Kyle Lowry will be overlooked, as most DFS players will approach the slate with a stars-and-scrubs approach. Lowry is finally starting to see his price come down since DeMar DeRozan’s return from injury. This game features a nice over/under of 206, which indicates the potential for a shootout. The Kings have really made a concerted effort to push the pace since Tyrone Corbin took over as the head coach. If the Kings can keep this game close, Lowry will have the opportunity for a big performance.
Shooting Guard
Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks – Regardless of where you are playing, your opponents will most likely do whatever it takes in order to get James Harden into their lineups. This common mindset will leave a guy like Monta Ellis extremely under-owned. Ellis still has the 40-50 fantasy point upside, which we like when considering guys for GPP lineups. The DAL/HOU game has a high total of 208.5, so Ellis is a great target for tournament play.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards – Beal is a guy that I’ve personally labeled as a GPP-only player. His inconsistency from game to game is much too risky for my cash game lineups. However, his high upside provides a great opportunity for tournament play. Beal will be playing in the game with the highest over/under (WAS/PHX: 211) of the night. The price on Beal is relatively fair just about everywhere. He’s a solid GPP-only option tonight.
Small Forward
Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks – Chandler Parsons is the guy that appears to have taken the biggest hit offensively since the Rondo trade. Due to this offensive hit, Parsons has shifted from a solid cash game play to strictly a tournament option. The DAL/HOU game has some shootout potential, as both teams enjoy playing at a faster pace. The minutes have remained relatively consistent for Parsons, which provide a great opportunity for the big game that we are looking for.
Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings – Gay is one of my favorite tournament plays of the day. He will be ridiculously under-owned on this slate due to the massive star power that is in action. Most DFS players will make additional sacrifices in their lineups in order to roster the big names. Specifically at the small forward position, DFS players will do their best to pay up for LeBron, opposed to settling on Gay. Even with Cousins back to full health, Gay has shown the ability to produce between 40-50 fantasy points on occasion. Gay is an ideal GPP-only play tonight.
Power Forward
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans – Anthony Davis might just be the stud you need in your lineups to win any type of GPP tournament. The guy has everything working in his favor tonight. He will be playing at home, where the scorekeeper is notoriously known for padding the stats of the home team. The matchup is beyond ideal versus the frontcourt of the Denver Nuggets, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. And lastly, the game has a reasonably high over/under of 202, with the Pelicans favored by six. Davis is the stud you want in your cash and GPP lineups.
Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns – Continuing with the theme of guys who were once safe cash-game options and are now GPP-only plays, I give you Markieff Morris. The production for Morris has been all over the map lately, which is disappointing considering he is getting consistent minutes for one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA. Morris has shown upside that reaches the level of 45+ fantasy points. The WAS/PHX game has the highest over/under on the board at 211 and is expected to remain close (PHX -4). For these reasons, Morris is one of the better GPP-only plays on the board tonight.
Center
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers – Here is another guy that falls in the price range right below the top tier players (Cousins for the center position). Using the same logic, it seems as though most players will either pay up for Cousins or go much cheaper, leaving Jordan under-owned. Jordan is more than capable of 40+ fantasy points, which is something we have seen him do three times in his last seven games. Jordan’s athleticism should be too much for the Jazz frontcourt to handle. I like him as a solid GPP play.