NBA Grind Down: Christmas Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Washington at New York
- Vegas Line – Washington -5, 192 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Humphries-Gortat
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Hardaway-Anthony-Acy-Stoudemire
| Washington | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 93.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.77 | Team Pace | 92.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Kris Humphries | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Carmelo Anthony | Quincy Acy | Amar’e Stoudemire | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 21 | 5 | 19 | 10 | Opp. Season | 5 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 17 | 1 | 19 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 6 | |
Washington
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays Grinders!
The Wizards and Knicks get the action started bright and early with a 12:00 ET tip-off. The Wizards have lost two games in a row and no longer sit atop the Eastern Conference standings. They will look to end the two-game slide on Christmas in Madison Square Garden. Vegas has the Wizards listed as 5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 192 points. This isn’t the best matchup on the schedule today, but it’s certainly not the worst. While the Knicks do play at a slow pace (92.2 possessions per 48 minutes), they are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency and 29th in rebounding differential.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $9800, DK: $10300 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
There are a few good, but not great plays on the Wizards in this game. Wall has much better splits at home than he does on the road, which is why he is listed as a secondary play today. Wall is averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 10 assists this season and the Knicks have been ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to point guards over the last seven days. There are a lot of great options at point guard today, but Wall makes an intriguing tournament option.
Bradley Beal (FD: $6500, DK: $6400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Beal is a solid mid-range option at shooting guard against the Knicks. Not only are the Knicks ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards, but Beal comes into this game playing well. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in five of his last six games. He’s affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings and draws a favorable matchup against Tim Hardaway Jr.
Marcin Gortat (FD: $6600, DK: $6800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
Apparently only the naughty kids asked for good centers on Christmas, because the options are extremely limited. Outside of DeAndre Jordan, it’s basically a crap shoot at the position. Gortat makes a nice mid-range fantasy option for cash games. While he doesn’t have a ton of upside, he is reliable and his price is down.
New York
The Knicks have lost five straight games and have fallen to 5-25 on the season. While they are technically only eight games out of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, that’s a lot of ground to make up. Plus, the Knicks are not trending in the right direction. They will look to jump-start their season with a win over the Wizards on Christmas. The good news for the Knicks is that the Wizards haven’t played nearly as well on the road as they have at home. The bad news is that the Wizards own a top five defense. They are ranked fourth in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to an average of 97.1 points per game.
Injury Note: Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire are both expected to play. J.R. Smith is doubtful.
Elite Plays
Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD: $5500, DK: $6200 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
Hardaway is seeing all of the minutes that he can handle with J.R. Smith out. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 34 minutes, 17 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. While the matchup against the Wizards isn’t ideal, his minutes and usage in the offense are more than enough to offset the tough matchup. He’s a better play on FanDuel ($5,500) than he is on DraftKings ($6,200) though.
Secondary Plays
Carmelo Anthony (FD: $9500, DK: $10400 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.1)
Anthony is worth a look as a tournament option today. His price is certainly too much to pay for him in cash games, but he has 50 fantasy point type of upside and can take over a game on any given day. Anthony has the best matchup of the five Knicks’ starters, as the Wizards are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to small forwards.
Oklahoma City at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -5, 198 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Jones-Ibaka-Adams
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Anderson-Duncan-Splitter
| Oklahoma City | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.35 | Team Pace | 95.09 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Perry Jones | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 13 | Opp. Season | 21 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 25 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 14 | 23 | 26 | 2 | |
Oklahoma City
Any hopes that we would see a healthy Thunder team take on the defending-champion Spurs were quickly dashed on Christmas Eve when Kevin Durant was ruled out. He will miss his fourth straight game with his ankle injury. The Thunder are still expected to keep this game competitive though, as Vegas has them listed as 5-point underdogs. The biggest issue here is that the Thunder only have one elite scorer in their lineup and they are facing one of the best defenses in the NBA. The Spurs are ranked fifth in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to 98.1 points per game.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $11300, DK: $12000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 38.7)
Westbrook is a serious MVP candidate with the way he has been playing this season. He is averaging 28 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals per game. He has scored at least 44 fantasy points in each of his last nine games and has a great chance to reach that mark again today with Kevin Durant out of the lineup. The Spurs are good at taking away their opponent’s top player, but Westbrook can create his own shot anytime he wants it. He is the top overall fantasy option.
Secondary Plays
Reggie Jackson (FD: $6000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
With Kevin Durant out again, Jackson should see some extended playing time off the bench. He has really played well in his last three games, averaging 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists. He will likely fly under the radar again today, as he will continue to come off the bench. That said, he is seeing starter’s minutes and he’s extremely affordable on DraftKings.
Steven Adams (FD: $4500, DK: $4400 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 15.8)
Once again, the center position is extremely thin today. If you want to take the cheap route at center, Adams is my favorite play of the bunch. Chris Andersen has been playing well, but he’s not going to give you more than 20 minutes in most games. Adams will typically see 25+ minutes per game.
San Antonio
The Spurs will be without Kawhi Leonard today, but are tentatively expected to have Tony Parker in the lineup. For those of you that may have missed it, Parker is priced at $3,000 on DraftKings, which is the bare minimum. These pricing mistakes happen every so often. While it’s not ideal to have a player that will be 95%+ owned across a single site, we have no choice but to plug him into our lineups at that price. As for the rest of the Spurs, this isn’t a great matchup. The Thunder are ranked sixth in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to an average of 95.9 points per game.
Elite Plays
Tony Parker (FD: $6400, DK: $3000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Parker is $3,000 on DraftKings today. He should be the first player in your lineups, assuming he is in the lineup.
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $9300, DK: $8900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
I have a hard time paying this much for a Spurs’ player. That said, Duncan has been playing at an extremely high level recently. He has upped his season averages to 16 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks per game. He does draw a tough matchup against Serge Ibaka, but when has a tough matchup ever slowed him down? I mean, he really can’t get that much slower anyway right?
Cleveland at Miami
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -5.5, 196 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miller-James-Love-Thompson
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-Deng-Williams-Andersen
| Cleveland | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.68 | Team Pace | 91.73 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Mike Miller | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | Proj Starter | Mario Chalmers | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Shawne Williams | Chris Andersen | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 26 | Opp. Season | 8 | 26 | 12 | 22 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 28 | 6 | 21 | 25 | |
Cleveland
This game is not about the Cavaliers and the Heat. This is about one thing and one thing only. LeBron James will return to Miami for the very first time since becoming a member of the Cavaliers (for the second time). The Heat fans will be out in full force for this one and it should be a great one to watch while hanging out with the family. This game features one of the lowest totals on the schedule today, but the Heat have not been great defensively. The Heat are ranked 25th in defensive efficiency and 30th in rebounding differential.
Injury Note: Anderson Varejao may be out for the rest of the season. Tristan Thompson is expected to start in his place.
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10500, DK: $11800 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 30.3)
Typically when players are facing their former team, we like to call it a revenge game. I don’t think James has any ill will toward the Heat or the city of Miami. That said, he will have some added motivation to play well in this one. James is averaging 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists per game this season. The Heat have been stingy against small forwards this season, but this is the best basketball player in the world that we are talking about. He could easily have the highest fantasy output of any player on the Christmas schedule.
Tristan Thompson (FD: $4800, DK: $5100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 14.8)
Anderson Varejao will not play in this game and may be out for the rest of the season. That’s a blow to the Cavaliers, but a huge boost to Thompson. In 27 minutes per game this season, Thompson is averaging 9 points and 7 rebounds. He could see upwards of 35 minutes today against the Heat. He should be one of the most popular value plays on the board.
Secondary Plays
Kyrie Irving (FD: $7600, DK: $9300 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Miami
The Heat are not expecting to have Chris Bosh available for their matchup against the Cavaliers. This is a big blow to their chances of picking up a win over their former teammate. Vegas has the Heat listed as 5.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 196 points. This is a decent matchup, but not a great one by any means, as the Cavaliers have the ability to blow anyone out on any given day. That said, the Cavaliers are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency and 25th in rebounding differential this season.
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8800, DK: $8400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 34.9)
Wade’s usage in this offense has been off the charts since Chris Bosh went down with his injury. His usage rate is nearing Westbrook-status which is truly impressive. Wade has scored at least 35 fantasy points in four of his last six games and will have the added motivation of playing against his friend, and former teammate, LeBron James. I’m expecting to see a Wade that looks like he’s still in his prime.
Secondary Plays
Luol Deng (FD: $5900, DK: $6500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Deng doesn’t have the highest upside, but he has a high floor and an increased usage in this offense with Chris Bosh out. He’s now their second or third option offensively when he is on the floor. He has scored at least 29 fantasy points in four of his last six games, but he will have his hands full with LeBron James. For that reason, he’s stuck as a secondary play on Christmas.
Shawne Williams (FD: $4100, DK: $4000 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 14.4)
Williams makes for a nice value play at small forward today. He has been inserted back into the starting lineup and he is coming off of two quality fantasy outings in a row. After scoring 24 fantasy points against the Celtics, he backed it up with 25 fantasy points against the Sixers. At his price, he only needs around 20 fantasy points to reach value. He’s certainly capable of that today against the Cavaliers.
L.A. Lakers at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -10.5, 207 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Price-Bryant-Johnson-Davis-Hill
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| L.A. Lakers | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.73 | Team Pace | 95.98 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ronnie Price | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 3 | 23 | 5 | 28 | Opp. Season | 30 | 12 | 25 | 24 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 15 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are expecting to have Kobe Bryant back in the lineup for their Christmas matchup against the Bulls. If they are to have any chance of pulling off the upset on the road, they will need a big game from Mr. Bryant. Vegas has the Lakers listed as 10.5-point underdogs in this game. The total is set at 207 points, but the Lakers team total is only set at 98.3 points. That’s considerably lower than their season average of 102.6. The Bulls are not elite defensively, but they are above average on that side of the floor, ranking tenth in defensive efficiency and sixth in rebounding differential.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kobe Bryant (FD: $8900, DK: $9500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 35.8)
In cash games, I will likely be avoiding all Lakers tonight. Not only are they huge underdogs, but they have a tough matchup against a good defensive team. That said, you can never count out Kobe Bryant, especially in a primetime game on Christmas. His price on FanDuel has come down to only $8,900, making him a very appealing tournament option.
Nick Young (FD: $5400, DK: $4800 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Young is still coming off the bench, but he is seeing close to starter’s minutes. He has played at least 30 minutes in three of his last six games and has scored at least 25 fantasy points in four of those outings. His price is a bit too high for my liking on FanDuel, but he’s an intriguing tournament option on DraftKings.
Chicago
The Bulls may not have Kirk Hinrich available to play against the Lakers, but should otherwise be at full-strength. They draw the most fantasy-friendly matchup on the schedule today. The Lakers are ranked dead last in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. They are also giving up 10.8 offensive rebounds per game to their opponents. Basically, no matter how you slice it, this is a great matchup. The only concern here is the potential for a blowout, which could leave the starters on the bench for most of the fourth quarter.
Injury Note: Kirk Hinrich is questionable. If he is forced to sit, Aaron Brooks would see a boost off the bench.
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $8700, DK: $9000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
If you read the Bulls intro, then you know that this is the best matchup on the board. The Lakers can’t rebound or defend. That really bodes well for Gasol’s fantasy appeal. Even better yet, this is a revenge game for Pau as he spent numerous years as a member of the Lakers. If you don’t want to pay up for Griffin at power forward, Gasol is the next best thing. Plus, he comes with a giant discount.
Derrick Rose (FD: $7100, DK: $6900 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 31.7)
This is the first time in a long time that I am actually considering Rose as a cash game option. He has looked great in each of his last two games and finally appears to be getting his confidence back. He also draws an extremely favorable matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. He may only see 30 minutes of action, but that’s more than enough time to reach value against the Lakers.
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $9300, DK: $8000 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Butler is an elite play on DraftKings ($8,000) and a secondary play on FanDuel ($9,300). He basically has his name etched into the “Most Improved Player of the Year” award. Butler is averaging 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He can easily reach double-digit fantasy points with blocks and steals alone. Everything is lining up for another monster fantasy performance from Butler.
Golden State at L.A. Clippers
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -2, 217.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Ezeli
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Golden State | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.5 |  | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.8 | Team Proj. | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.60 | Team Pace | 96.37 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Festus Ezeli | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 24 | 8 | 20 | 19 | Opp. Season | 24 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 27 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 4 | 29 | 14 | 5 | |
Golden State
While it will be tempting to load up on players from the early games to have something to sweat all day, this is the game that you want to have the most exposure to. The Warriors and Clippers have the highest total on the schedule. It’s currently set at 217.5 points, with both teams projected to score close to 110 points each. The Warriors are only 2.5-point favorites as well, which means we can expect a close, high scoring game between these two teams. That’s typically a recipe for success in daily fantasy basketball.
Injury Note: Andrew Bogut is out. Festus Ezeli will draw another start at center.
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10500, DK: $10700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Load up on players from this game if you can. While there aren’t many value plays here, the superstars should all play well. Included in that is Stephen Curry. In his first meeting against the Clippers this season, Curry had 28 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists. That’s just another day in the park for Curry. Given his big discount over Russell Westbrook, I’m contemplating using Curry over Westbrook in cash games.
Klay Thompson (FD: $8100, DK: $7800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Thompson is one of those players whose ownership is always much lower than his numbers would suggest. He is an elite scorer that is averaging 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He draws a terrific matchup against the Clippers, who are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards this season.
Draymond Green (FD: $7700, DK: $7300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 17.5)
Green is coming off of a rare bad outing. He could only muster up 2 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists in what was a surprising loss to the Lakers. He should bounce back tonight against the Clippers, assuming he can stay out of foul trouble. The Clippers are ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards this season and Green has a knack of filling up all areas of the stat sheet.
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers may not have the best matchup on paper, but there isn’t expected to be a whole lot of defense played in this one. The Warriors are ranked first in defensive efficiency this season, but they are a very fast-paced team that still gives up 98.7 points per game. The Clippers have a team total of 109.8 points tonight, which is the highest team total on the schedule. This is a case where game flow should be factored in more than the defensive rankings. The big three of the Clippers are all in play tonight.
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10400, DK: $10200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Westbrook or Curry or Paul? The decision at point guard is tough on Christmas. Prices being equal, Westbrook is the obvious choice, but Curry and Paul are both significantly cheaper. They are also playing in a game that features a much higher total. Paul typically plays up to the level of his competition and I’m expecting nothing but the best of CP3 tonight.
Blake Griffin (FD: $10200, DK: $11000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 30.2)
Griffin did not play well in his first meeting against the Warriors. If you remember, it was during the tough opening stretch of games for the Clips. It was also the game where Draymond Green stuck his tongue out at Griffin’s face the entire way down the court. You have to think Griffin will have a little added motivation in this one. He has as much upside as any player on the schedule and should be considered the top power forward in this Christmas slate.
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $8000, DK: $8500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 11.1)
I’m going to do everything that I can to anchor my lineups with Jordan. The reasoning is fairly simple: Jordan is playing his best basketball of the season and there aren’t any other centers that I really trust in this slate of games. The Warriors have been stingy against centers this season, but I’m expecting a monster double-double from Jordan tonight.
Secondary Plays
None