NBA Grind Down: Friday, December 19th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Utah at Orlando
- Vegas Line – Orlando -3, 193 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Burks-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Oladipo-Fournier-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
| Utah | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.0 | Team Proj. | 98.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.82 | Team Pace | 94.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Alec Burks | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | Proj Starter | Victor Oladipo | Evan Fournier | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 11 | 17 | 14 | 30 | Opp. Season | 14 | 9 | 15 | 28 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 15 | 20 | 15 | 16 | |
What’s up Grinders, Happy Friday! With such a large slate, we will focus on the picks, rather than the team analysis.
Utah
The Jazz have not played well on the road this season. They are 3-10 away from home, but are getting some love from Vegas tonight. They are only 3-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 193 points. The Magic are ranked 18th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up an average of 99.4 points per game to their opponents.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Enes Kanter (FD: $6300, DK: $6900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Kanter’s fantasy value obviously takes a hit with Derrick Favors back in the lineup, but he is finally seeing 30+ minutes on a consistent basis. Kanter has scored at least 23 fantasy points in each of his last six games. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed per game to centers this season.
Trey Burke (FD: $5200, DK: $5500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
There are better point guard options for cash games tonight, but he does offer good upside as a tournament play. Burke plays elite minutes (33 per game), he has a high usage in the offense (20.6), and he draws a favorable matchup against Victor Oladipo. On the season, the Magic are ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing point guards.
Orlando
The Magic are 10-18 on the season. They have not played particularly well at home or on the road. They are small favorites tonight against the Jazz though. Vegas has their team total set at 98 points, which is more than four points higher than their season average. This is a fantasy-friendly matchup for the Magic, but there aren’t any plays that really stand out here.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tobias Harris (FD: $7000, DK: $7200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24)
Harris has been a very reliable fantasy option this season. He has now scored at least 28 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. That’s a great floor to have for a player at his price point. Harris is a good scorer and he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He has a high usage in this offense (24.0) and he draws a favorable matchup against the Jazz, who are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency this season.
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8400, DK: $9000 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
Vucevic makes an interesting tournament play tonight. There are few players in the NBA with 20/20 type of upside and Vucevic is one of them. While the Jazz have been stingy against centers this season, he will match up against the likes of Enes Kanter, Derrick Favors, and Rudy Gobert. None of those players stray far away from the basket. Target Vucevic as a contrarian tournament play tonight against the Jazz.
Charlotte at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -4.5, 194 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Thompson-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Charlotte | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 94.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.13 | Team Pace | 99.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Hollis Thompson | Robert Covington | Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 28 | 29 | 23 | 20 | Opp. Season | 29 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 25 | 11 | 24 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 13 | 14 | 23 | 9 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets have lost four games in a row. They are now 6-19 on the season, but luckily (or sadly) they are only four and a half games out of the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets have a good chance to pick up their seventh win tonight against the Sixers. Vegas has the Hornets listed as 4.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 194 points. The Sixers are a fast-paced team that doesn’t play defense very often. That’s a great combination for production in daily fantasy basketball.
Injury Note: Lance Stephenson has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Gerald Henderson will draw the start in his place.
Elite Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8700, DK: $8900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Jefferson is coming off of one of his best games of the season. He had 28 points (18 in the first quarter), 10 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals. The Hornets are force-feeding him the ball in the post, as evidenced by his high usage in this offense. Jefferson draws a premier matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 28th in rebounding differential and 30th in fantasy points allowed to opposing centers over the last seven days.
Kemba Walker (FD: $7800, DK: $8600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Walker’s price has come up on DraftKings, but he’s still sitting at a very playable $7,800 on FanDuel. He is coming off of one of his best games of the season, scoring 27 points and dishing out 7 assists against the Suns. He draws a very favorable matchup tonight against Michael Carter-Williams the Sixers, who have really had trouble stopping opposing point guards this season. Walker’s usage rate is down a bit this season, but it should go up tonight with Lance Stephenson on the shelf.
Secondary Plays
Gerald Henderson (FD: $3500, DK: $4000 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 16.3)
Henderson is your classic injury plug-and-play tonight. Lance Stephenson will not suit up, which means Henderson will draw the start at shooting guard. He should easily be able to reach and exceed value against a Sixers team that is giving up an average of 103.7 points per game to their opponents. Henderson is a low-risk, medium-reward fantasy option for cash games tonight.
Philadelphia
The Sixers will be looking for their third win of the season tonight, as the host the Hornets. Vegas is expecting this to be a close, competitive game. I don’t bet on sports, but the over looks rather enticing in this one. Both teams are giving up over 100 points per game to their opponents this season. The Hornets may not play at a fast pace (94.1 possessions per 48 minutes), but they make up for that with a lack of play on the defensive end of the floor (ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency).
Elite Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
I’m not sure what it is, but you can’t help but cheer for a guy like Covington. He has really made the most of his opportunity this season, especially as a starter. He is averaging 19 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists per game in his three appearances in the starting lineup. While he is no longer a bargain bin special, he’s still very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s technically listed as the starting small forward tonight, but hopefully he will match up against Cody Zeller. The Hornets are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $9000, DK: $9100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.2)
MCW’s price is a little too high for me to target him in cash games, but he is always on my fantasy radar as a tournament play. He is a threat to post a triple-double every time he takes the floor. His usage rate of 28.2 is one of the highest in the NBA this season. He also draws a favorable matchup against Kemab Walker and the Hornets, who have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards.
Minnesota at Boston
- Vegas Line – Boston -7.5, 213.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Muhammad-Wiggins-Young-Dieng
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Zeller
| Minnesota | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.0 | Team Proj. | 110.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.70 | Team Pace | 100.49 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Shabazz Muhammad | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jeff Green | Jared Sullinger | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 8 | 2 | 29 | 26 | Opp. Season | 21 | 29 | 26 | 16 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 9 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 22 | 18 | 5 | 27 | |
Minnesota
The T-Wolves are just biding time until they can get three of their best players back in the lineup. Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, and Kevin Martin are all still out with their injuries. The good news is that the Wolves are in prime position to get a good draft pick. Tonight the T-Wolves head to Boston to take on the Celtics. Even without Rondo in the Celtics lineup, the Wolves are still 7.5-point underdogs. This game does feature two of the fastest-paced teams in the league though, which should lead to a high-scoring game.
Injury Note: Mo Williams is a game-time decision against the Celtics. Even if he does play, he will be on a minutes-restriction.
Lineup Note: Corey Brewer has been traded to the Rockets. Shabazz Muhammad should see an uptick in minutes in his absence.
Elite Plays
Shabazz Muhammad (FD: $5500, DK: $4500 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Muhammad should see an uptick in both minutes and production now that Corey Brewer is on his way to Houston. Muhammad has been a very productive fantasy option this season and should be considered an elite play tonight with the news of this trade.
Secondary Plays
Zach LaVine (FD: $5100, DK: $5000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
The T-Wolves are full of good, but not great fantasy options tonight. LaVine has played well as a starter this season, averaging 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. He needs to score around 25 fantasy points to reach value tonight, a mark that he has reached three time in his last seven games. LaVine would be a borderline elite play against the Celtics if Mo Williams ends up sitting out tonight.
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6400, DK: $7100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Young is a much better play on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings tonight, as he is considerably cheaper on that site. Young is averaging a respectable 14 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assists per game this season. He should be able to improve on those numbers tonight, as the Celtics have given up the second most fantasy point per game to opposing power forwards this season.
Boston
This will be the first game in the post-Rondo era for the Celtics. The Celtics’ new acquisitions will not be available to play tonight, which is good news for the fantasy appeal of the Celtics’ back-court. Rondo’s absence gives a nice fantasy boost to Evan Turner, Avery Bradley, and Marcus Smart (if he can play). This could be a great night to target a few Celtics’ players, as the T-Wolves have given up an average of 108.5 points per game.
Elite Plays
Jeff Green (FD: $6300, DK: $6400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
The combination of a depressed price and a terrific matchup puts Green in a great spot tonight against the T-Wolves. Green’s fantasy value is scoring dependent, but he does offer great upside for the price. He draws a terrific matchup against the T-Wolves, who have given up the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards.
Evan Turner (FD: $4800, DK: $4600 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Turner is one of the best value plays on the board tonight, especially if Marcus Smart is ruled out. Even if Smart plays, Turner figures to see a lot of playing time tonight without Rajon Rondo in the mix. Turner is averaging 0.88 fantasy points per minutes this season and could easily see 30-35 minutes tonight against the T-Wolves. At his price, he will be a staple in my cash game and tournament lineups.
Avery Bradley (FD: $4400, DK: $4400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
The absence of Rajon Rondo should give a nice boost to Avery Bradley tonight, especially considering the fact that Jameer Nelson will not be active. Bradley should see some extended playing time tonight and will likely spend some time at the point as well. He also draws a favorable matchup against the T-Wolves, who have allowed the second most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards.
Secondary Plays
Tyler Zeller (FD: $4900, DK: $5000 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 16.2)
Zeller continues to be out-played by Kelly Olynyk off the bench, but he’s still been a very serviceable value play. He is still in the starting lineup and he has scored at least 20 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. Zeller is a low-risk, medium reward option tonight for cash games.
Brooklyn at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -12, 197.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Anderson-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miller-James-Love-Varejao
| Brooklyn | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.0 | Vegas Sprd | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.8 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.04 | Team Pace | 94.49 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Mike Miller | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Anderson Varejao | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 21 | 14 | 21 | 16 | Opp. Season | 26 | 24 | 18 | 19 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 14 | 16 | 7 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets are in a tough matchup tonight against the Cavalier. Vegas has the Nets as 12-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 197 points. The Nets team total for tonight is set at 93 points, which is considerably lower than their season average. The Cavaliers have not been great defensively this season, but they have the ability to blow teams out. Tread lightly with the Nets tonight.
Injury Note: Brook Lopez is out for tonight’s game. Mason Plumlee will draw another start at center.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Mason Plumlee (FD: $6400, DK: $6100 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
After seeing very limited minutes off the bench for most of the season, Plumlee has made the most of his opportunity as the starting center. In six starts this season, he is averaging 13 points and 8 rebounds per game. He has scored at least 31 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He should draw another start at center tonight against the Cavaliers, as Brook Lopez is still out with a back injury.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers are a disappointing 14-10 this season, but are only a game and a half behind the Chicago Bulls for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. They are large favorites tonight against the Nets. This is an average matchup for fantasy production. The Nets are ranked 14th in defensive efficiency, giving up an average of 98.4 points per game. This is not a matchup where I will be paying a premium for LeBron James or Kevin Love.
Lineup Note: Mike Miller will move into the starting lineup tonight. Shawn Marion will head to the bench.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kyrie Irving (FD: $7600, DK: $9300 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
Irving is a FanDuel-specific play tonight. It’s hard to believe that he has a $1,600 price difference between FanDuel and DraftKings. They must have very different pricing algorithms. Irving is averaging 33.6 fantasy points per game this season, which is just under what he needs to reach value on FanDuel tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against Deron Williams and the Cavaliers, who are ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing point guards.
Toronto at Detroit
- Vegas Line – Toronto -7.5, 199.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Ross-Fields-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Smith-Drummond
| Toronto | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.5 |  | Vegas Total | 199.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.5 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.22 | Team Pace | 94.84 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Terrence Ross | Landry Fields | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Josh Smith | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 18 | 11 | 27 | 25 | Opp. Season | 12 | 1 | 27 | 8 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 6 | 23 | 27 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 7 | 25 | 14 | 1 | |
Toronto
The Raptors are still the team to beat in the East. They are 20-6 this season and have won four games in a row. Tonight they head to Detroit to take on the disappointing Pistons. The Raptors are 7.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 199 points. This is a fantasy-friendly matchup for the Raptors, as the Pistons are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency this season.
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $9800, DK: $10200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
Once again, I will quote one of Einstein’s greatest mathematical formulas: The Raptors – DeMar DeRozan = Kyle Lowry squared. In the ten games without DeRozan, Lowry has averaged 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. During that stretch, he has averaged 41.7 fantasy points (FanDuel scoring) per game. He should be locked and loaded as an elite option at point guard tonight against the Pistons.
Secondary Plays
Amir Johnson (FD: $5100, DK: $5100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16)
Johnson has been inconsistent all season, but could be in line for some extended playing time tonight against the big front-court of the Pistons. While Johnson doesn’t offer a ton of upside, the Pistons have been awful at defending power forwards this season. They are currently ranked 27th in fantasy points allowed per game to power forwards.
Detroit
Even with a 19 point, 24 rebound performance from Andre Drummond, the Pistons still couldn’t pick up a win the other night against the Mavericks. They are now 5-21 on the season. Their inconsistent play mixed as a team and on an individual level makes them an easy team to avoid tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Josh Smith (FD: $7700, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 25)
J-Smoove makes a great tournament play tonight, but should be avoided for cash games. You never know when he is going to put up one of his classic 15 fantasy point outings. Smith does offer tremendous upside for the price though. He has scored over 40 fantasy points four times in his last ten games.