NBA Grind Down Friday, December 19th - Page Two
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Washington at Miami
- Vegas Line – Washington -4, 191.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Humphries-Gortat
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Wade-Deng-Hamilton-Andersen
| Washington | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191.5 |  | Vegas Total | 191.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.75 | Team Proj. | 93.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.9 | Team Pace | 91.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Kris Humphries | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Justin Hamilton | Chris Andersen | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 21 | Opp. Season | 2 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 12 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 18 | |
Washington
This game has very little fantasy appeal. The Wizards are currently 4.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of only 191 points. They are facing a Heat team that is one of the slowest-paced teams in the entire NBA. The Wizards have their team total set at 98 points, which is considerably lower than their season average of 101 points. John Wall is not a recommended play tonight, as his numbers take a considerable hit on the road.
Injury Note: Paul Pierce is probable for tonight’s game. If he can’t suit up, Rasual Butler would be the biggest beneficiary in his absence.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Bradley Beal (FD: $6600, DK: $6200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Dwyane Wade is not an elite defender at this stage in his career, especially now that he is being asked to do so much offensively. Beal is a sneaky play tonight that I haven’t seen many experts suggest around the industry. Beal has 40 fantasy point type of upside and the Heat have allowed more fantasy points per game to shooting guards than any other team in the NBA.
Miami
The Heat will be without Chris Bosh again tonight. They will roll with a makeshift front-court of Justin Hamilton, Chris Andersen, Shawne Williams, and Udonis Haslem. The Heat have one of the toughest matchups on the schedule tonight. The Wizards are ranked fourth in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to an average of 96.5 points per game.
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8700, DK: $8400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 34.4)
Even though I don’t like the matchup for the Heat as a whole, Wade is still an elite play tonight. His usage rate has gone through the roof with Chris Bosh out of the lineup. In the last two games, Wade has scored 40 and 45 fantasy points (FD scoring). His price has come up a bit, but he is going to be the focal point of the Heat offense. If the Heat have any chance of picking up a win tonight, it will be on the back of one Dwyane Wade.
Secondary Plays
None
Portland at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -4.5, 195 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Robinson-Aldridge
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Joseph-Green-Anderson-Duncan-Bonner
| Portland | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.28 | Team Pace | 95.17 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | Thomas Robinson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Proj Starter | Cory Joseph | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | Tim Duncan | Matt Bonner | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 13 | Opp. Season | 8 | 3 | 23 | 6 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 23 | 2 | 21 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 19 | 5 | 26 | 4 | |
Portland
This will be a battle between two of the best teams in the Western Conference. Both teams will be at less than full-strength though, as the Blazers will be without Robin Lopez and the Spurs will be without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard. Vegas is expected this game to be won on the defensive end of the floor. The total is set at only 195 points, which is one of the lowest totals on the schedule tonight. The Spurs own a top five defense, which does not bode well for the Blazers fantasy appeal.
Injury Note: Robin Lopez is out for tonight’s game. Thomas Robinson and Chris Kaman should both see a nice fantasy boost in his absence. Nicolas Batum could also miss tonight’s game, he is currently questionable with knee and wrist injuries.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Wesley Matthews (FD: $5600, DK: $5500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 19.4)
This pick is all about value. Matthews is listed at a bargain-bin price on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. While his matchup against the Spurs isn’t ideal, he should be able to reach value at his price point. Based on a 5x salary value system, Matthews only needs to score 28 fantasy points to reach value tonight. Matthews could also see a small fantasy boost if Nicolas Batum is forced to sit tonight. Batum is dealing with a knee injury and is questionable for tonight’s game against the Spurs.
Thomas Robinson (FD: $4200, DK: $3000 / MPG: 10 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
San Antonio
The Spurs will be without Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard again tonight, which means Tim Duncan and Danny Green will have to carry the load offensively. Although the Spurs have always been able to get great fill-in production from their role players. Tonight they host the Blazers, who are also a very good team defensively. The Blazers are ranked sixth in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to an average of 95.7 points per game.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $9100, DK: $8800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
Duncan turned back the clock the other night against the Grizzlies. He played 48 minutes in the triple-OT thriller. He posted an insanely good stat line of 23 points, 16 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks, and 2 steals. He will likely the focal point of the Spurs offense tonight with both Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard out. What’s holding him back from being an elite play is his hefty price tag.
Cory Joseph (FD: $4800, DK: $4700 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
Tony Parker has already been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Blazers. While Joseph hasn’t exactly been lighting up the stat sheet, he has been a serviceable value play while filling in for Parker. In seven starts this season, he is averaging 12 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. At his price point, he’s more than capable of reaching and exceeding value tonight against the Blazers.
Chicago at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -6.5, 191 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Chicago | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.3 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.82 | Team Pace | 94.06 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 20 | 9 | 18 | 2 | Opp. Season | 28 | 4 | 25 | 5 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 30 | 6 | 16 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 12 | |
Chicago
The Bulls picked up a win over the Knicks last night and will now play the second half of a back-to-back tonight in Memphis. Derrick Rose did not travel with the team for tonight’s game, which means Kirk Hinrich and Aaron Brooks will split the duties at point guard. This is a tough matchup for the Bulls. The Grizzlies are ranked seventh in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to an average of 96.4 points per game this season.
Injury Note: As mentioned above, Derrick Rose is out tonight. Taj Gibson is listed as questionable.
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8100, DK: $6800 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Butler is one of my favorite players to watch. He has improved tremendously on the offensive end of the floor and he never takes a play off on defense. His decision not to sign an extension in the offseason is looking like a genius move, as there will be quite a few teams after him after this season. For whatever reason, Butler is only $6,800 on DraftKings tonight. Don’t over-think this one, plug in Butler as your starting shooting guard and move on.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9100, DK: $8700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
It will be a battle of the Gasol’s tonight in Memphis. These two have both been playing at a very high level this season. Hopefully for Pau’s case, he will start on Zach Randolph instead of his brother Marc. Marc is one of the best low-post defenders in the NBA. Gasol makes for a safe cash game play again tonight, especially on DraftKings where his price is $700 cheaper than it was last night.
Aaron Brooks (FD: $3500, DK: $3300 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 27.1)
As mentioned above, Derrick Rose did not travel with the team for tonight’s game against the Grizzlies. While Brooks will still come off the bench, he should see some extended playing time with Rose out. Brooks played well last night in 25 minutes, scoring 18 points and dishing out 5 assists against the Knicks. At close to minimum salary, he offers great upside tonight against the Grizzlies.
Memphis
Most teams in the NBA would relish the back-to-back victories over the Warriors and Spurs, but that’s not like the Grizzlies. Coach Dave Joerger has this team playing at an incredible level right now. The Grizzlies are 6.5-point favorites tonight against the Bulls. This is expected to be a slow, grind it out, type of game, but that’s more than fine with the Grizzlies.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8800, DK: $8900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.4)
Gasol is really the only Grizzlies player that is on my radar tonight. He has established himself as one of the premier big men in the NBA. Much like Jimmy Butler, he will likely be getting paid handsomely this offseason. Gasol is averaging 20 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks per game this season. He has also scored at least 37 fantasy points in five straight games.
L.A. Clippers at Denver
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -6, 214.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
| L.A. Clippers | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.00 | Vegas Sprd | 6.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.25 | Team Proj. | 104.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.14 | Team Pace | 98.66 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 13 | 20 | 25 | 27 | Opp. Season | 1 | 17 | 8 | 20 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 29 | 21 | 17 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 30 | 25 | |
L.A. Clippers
This game should be a fun one to watch. It should also be a great game to target for daily fantasy basketball. The Clippers head to Denver to take on the Nuggets in a game that features a total of 214 points. Both of these teams love to push the pace and there should be plenty of points to go around tonight. The Nuggets are currently ranked 21st in defensive efficiency this season, giving up an average of 105.0 points per game.
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $10100, DK: $10500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 30.6)
Targeting big men against the Nuggets is a time-honored tradition. Year after year, the Nuggets struggle to defend the paint. On the season, they are ranked 25th against power forwards and 27th against centers. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are both in terrific spots tonight. While Griffin is expensive, the combination of his matchup and the pace at which this game should be played, put him in a terrific spot tonight. Griffin is the premier play at power forward tonight.
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $8100, DK: $8200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 10.8)
Everything is coming together for Jordan to have a monster fantasy outing tonight. He is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 11 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 blocks per game over his last seven. He also draws one of the best matchups tonight, as the Nuggets have been downright awful against opposing bigs this season. A double-double is in store for Jordan tonight, the only question is what that double will look like.
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10100, DK: $10300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
You can never rule out Chris Paul in an uptempo game against a bad defense. His price is a little higher than I’d like to pay for him in cash games, but he has as much upside as any player available tonight. It’s weird to think of Paul as a contrarian play, but he makes a nice low percentage-owned play tonight in tournaments.
Denver
The Nuggets draw a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Clippers tonight. While they are 6-point underdogs, their team total is still set at 104 points. The Clippers are a fast-paced team that plays average defense. They are currently ranked 15th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up an average of 99.8 points per game.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Arron Afflalo (FD: $5500, DK: $5600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20)
Ty Lawson is typically the Nuggets player that you want to target in this type of game, but he draws an extremely difficult matchup against Chris Paul. Instead, I’m looking at Lawson’s backcourt playing partner. Afflalo has scored at least 23 fantasy points in each of his last five games and draws a favorable matchup against the Clippers, who have not been great against shooting guards this season.
Oklahoma City at L.A. Lakers
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -7.5, 210 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Price-Bryant-Johnson-Davis-Hill
| Oklahoma City | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.8 | Team Proj. | 101.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.05 | Team Pace | 97.66 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Ronnie Price | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 14 | 24 | 26 | 18 | Opp. Season | 9 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 26 | 28 | 20 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 12 | 19 | 22 | 5 | |
Oklahoma City
The biggest question surrounding the Thunder tonight is the availability of Kevin Durant. He sprained his ankle after scoring 30 points in 18 minutes last night against the Warriors. It was a shame because he was well on his way to a career game. Durant is listed as a game-time decision tonight, which means we likely won’t know his status until well after 7:00 ET. The Thunder have one of the best matchups on the schedule. The Lakers are ranked dead last in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $10800, DK: $11500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 37.6)
Westbrook is playing at an MVP-type level right now. He is averaging 27 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. He’s compiled those stats in an average of only 31 minutes per game. Now that Westbrook is healthy, he is playing 35+ minutes per night. Westbook’s usage rate is 37.6 this season, which is the highest of any player in the NBA. He draws a premier matchup tonight against the Lakers, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. Westbrook would also see a small fantasy boost if Kevin Durant is forced to miss tonight’s game.
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka (FD: $7200, DK: $6800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Ibaka has been very inconsistent this season, but that has kept his price at an affordable level. He has had strong fantasy outings in back-to-back games and has a great chance to make it three in a row, as the Thunder head to L.A. to take on the Lakers. Not only are the Lakers the third-worst rebounding team in the NBA, but they do not defend the paint well. Ibaka should cause havoc on both ends of the floor.
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are a mess right now and it doesn’t look like it’s going to get any better this season. They are 8-17 on the season and will likely fall to 8-18 after tonight’s game against the Thunder. The good news is that this is expected to be one of the fastest-paced games on the schedule tonight. The bad news is that the Thunder are ranked in the top five in terms of defensive efficiency.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kobe Bryant (FD: $9200, DK: $9400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 35.8)
Bryant is one of those players that is always looking to prove something. Tonight he squares off against Russell Westbrook and possibly Kevin Durant. Kobe would love nothing more than to top both of them in scoring tonight. Bryant is not a recommended cash game play, but deserves consideration as play in large tournaments.