NBA Grind Down Friday, December 26th - Page Two
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Houston at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -2, 194 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Leuer-Gasol
| Houston | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.0 | Team Proj. | 98.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.46 | Team Pace | 93.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Jon Leuer | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 23 | 10 | 17 | 3 | Opp. Season | 2 | 10 | 19 | 23 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 26 | 21 | 9 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 24 | 19 | |
Houston
This will be a battle between two of the best teams in the Western Conference. It will also be a battle between two of the top defenses in the NBA. Both of these teams are ranked in the top ten in terms of defensive efficiency. Vegas has the total for this game set at only 194 points. Tread lightly with both of these teams tonight. With nine other games available to choose players from, there is no need to have too much exposure to the Rockets tonight.
Lineup Note: Josh Smith has officially signed with the Rockets. He will play tonight against the Grizzlies. His presence really hurts the fantasy value of Donatas Motiejunas moving forward.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis
The Grizzlies are 2-point favorites in this game. While I do like their chances to pick up a win, I don’t like their matchup for fantasy production. While the Rockets are a fast-paced team, they are very good defensively. They are ranked second in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to an average of 96.3 points per game.
Injury Note: Zach Randolph is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to suit up, Jon Leuer and Kosta Koufos would both see a fantasy boost in his absence.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $9000, DK: $9300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26)
You can easily avoid all players in this game, but if you want some exposure to it, Gasol is my favorite play of the bunch. He has had a terrific season, averaging 20 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks per game. He will be asked to log big minutes tonight for two reasons. Not only will he have to defend Dwight Howard, but there is a chance that the Grizzlies will be without Zach Randolph.
L.A. Lakers at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -12.5, 214.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Price-Ellington-Johnson-Davis-Hill
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| L.A. Lakers | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.0 | Team Proj. | 113.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.73 | Team Pace | 96.76 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ronnie Price | Wayne Ellington | Wesley Johnson | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 15 | 20 | 8 | 8 | Opp. Season | 30 | 12 | 25 | 24 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 13 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers put up a decent fight against the Bulls last night, but eventually ended up losing by a wide margin. They will now head to Dallas to take on the new-look Mavericks. Vegas has the Lakers listed as 12.5-point underdogs in this one. At this point, it’s hard to trust anyone on the Lakers for cash games, but you may want to give a couple of players a look in tournaments if Kobe Bryant sits out again.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Wesley Johnson (FD: $4600, DK: $4900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 13)
The Johnson pick is contingent on the health of Kobe Bryant. Johnson is a much better play with Kobe Bryant out of the lineup. Over the last two games with Bryant out, Johnson has scored 23 and 36 fantasy points. If Bryant is ruled out again tonight, use Johnson as a tournament play with good upside. He’s facing a Mavericks team that is ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to small forward this season.
Dallas
The Mavericks have the best matchup on the board tonight, but this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. That said, it’s still going to be hard to fade the Mavericks tonight, given the extremely favorable matchup. The Lakers are ranked dead last in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. They are also ranked 28th in rebounding differential. The Mavericks’ team total for this game is set at 113.5 points, which is easily the highest on the board.
Injury Note: Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki are both questionable for tonight’s game with illnesses. Make sure they are in the lineup before targeting them tonight.
Elite Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $7800, DK: $7500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.8)
Ellis at this price against the Lakers is just too good to be true. A mini-slump from Ellis has lowered his price on both FanDuel and DraftKings and now he faces the worst defense in the NBA. The Lakers are also ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards this season. This game could easily turn into a blowout, but I’m not passing up on Ellis on a night where he could realistically score 40+ fantasy points without breaking much of a sweat.
Tyson Chandler (FD: $7200, DK: $7200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
The question isn’t whether or not to target the Mavericks tonight, it’s how many we should target. Chandler finds himself in a terrific spot against a Lakers team that has no interior defense. The Lakers are also one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking 28th in rebounding differential. If the Lakers can keep this one within striking distance, Chandler could post a 15+ point, 15+ rebound performance tonight.
Secondary Plays
I’m not going to break down each player, because the analysis is basically the same for each. All five starters are in play tonight for the Mavericks. Considering the potential blowout, I’d max out my exposure to the Mavericks at three players in a single lineup. Monta Ellis and Tyson Chandler are my favorite two Mavericks, but these three are in play as well:
Rajon Rondo (FD: $8400, DK: $7900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Chandler Parsons (FD: $7000, DK: $7100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $7000, DK: $6600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Minnesota at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -10.5, 211 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Muhammad-Wiggins-Young-Dieng
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
| Minnesota | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211 |  | Vegas Total | 211 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.50 | Vegas Sprd | -10.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.25 | Team Proj. | 110.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.57 | Team Pace | 98.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Shabazz Muhammad | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 16 | 15 | 27 | 23 | Opp. Season | 20 | 28 | 28 | 16 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 23 | 3 | 28 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 16 | 27 | 10 | 25 | |
Minnesota
This game features one of the highest totals on the schedule tonight. It’s set at 211 points. While the T-Wolves are double-digit underdogs here, I like their chances to keep this one within striking distance. The Nuggets are not a great team defensively, ranking 20th in defensive efficiency and giving up an average of 104.0 points per game this season.
Elite Plays
Shabazz Muhammad (FD: $6200, DK: $6400 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 26.1)
Since the Corey Brewer trade, Muhammad is averaging 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He has now scored at least 30 fantasy points in five straight games. His price is only going to go up from here, so this may be the last time to take him at this price point. He has become their go-to scorer since entering the starting lineup. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Wilson Chandler and the Nuggets, who are ranked 16th in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6300, DK: $6700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
If you’ve read the Grind Down before, then you know how much I love to target big men against the Nuggets. Year after year, they continue to have one of the worst interior defenses in the NBA. Young may not be the safest cash game play, but he offers good upside as a tournament option tonight. The Nuggets have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to power forwards this season and Young can put up points quickly.
Mo Williams (FD: $5500, DK: $4300 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Williams is still coming off the bench, but he is starting to see more minutes. Over his last three games, he is averaging 26 minutes per game. During that stretch, he has averaged 12 points, 3 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. He’s very affordable on DraftKings and should be able to reach value against the Nuggets.
Denver
The Nuggets have close to the best matchup on the board. Not only are they playing at home, but they are facing a T-Wolves team that is ranked 29th in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game this season. The Nuggets team total is set at 110.8 points, which is one of the highest on the schedule tonight. Don’t be afraid to target a few players from this game.
Elite Plays
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5600, DK: $5800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Chandler has had a rough four-game stretch where he has failed to score more than 22 fantasy points. While that is a little concerning, slumps are going to happen over the long course of the NBA season. The good news is that his price has come way down. At his price point on FanDuel and DraftKings, Chandler only needs to score around 28 fantasy points to reach value. He’s certainly capable of reaching and exceeding value tonight against the T-Wolves, who have allowed the third most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8700, DK: $9700 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
As usual, there are a ton of point guard options tonight. One that will likely go overlooked is Ty Lawson. He is always priced in that fantasy no-man’s land where most people tend to either pay up for a guy like Westbrook or take the value route. That said, Lawson has incredible upside, especially in tonight’s matchup. The T-Wolves are ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season.
Kenneth Faried (FD: $5600, DK: $6000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Faried is coming off of one of his best games of the season. He played 32 minutes, scored 20 points, and grabbed 14 rebounds. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come, as he really played well in the summer and was expected to have a breakout season. He has a great chance to add another great game to his resume tonight as he faces the T-Wolves, who are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards this season.
Philadelphia at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -14.5, 198 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Sampson-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Freeland
| Philadelphia | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.5 | Vegas Sprd | -14.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.8 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.34 | Team Pace | 96.39 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Joel Freeland | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 4 | 24 | 10 | 18 | Opp. Season | 10 | 27 | 30 | 14 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 20 | 12 | 25 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 22 | 24 | 5 | 20 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers are the biggest underdogs on the schedule tonight. They are only projected to score 91.8 points against a Blazers team that is ranked third in defensive efficiency this season. So not only is this a bad fantasy matchup, but it also has the potential to turn into a blowout. That’s not a great recipe for production in daily fantasy basketball.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5700, DK: $5800 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 20.8)
Covington is really the only Sixers’ player that is on my radar tonight. He has really played well since entering the starting lineup and he has now scored at least 23 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. You aren’t going to find that kind of consistency from many other players in his price range. The matchup is tough though, as the Blazers are an elite defensive team.
Portland
The Blazers are huge favorites at home tonight against the Sixers. On paper, this is a terrific matchup. The Sixers are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and have given up an average of 102.7 points per game this season. The problem is that this game could easily be over by the end of the third quarter. That doesn’t mean that we have to necessarily stay away from the Blazers, but we may want to limit our exposure to this game.
Injury Note: Nicolas Batum is questionable for tonight’s game.
Elite Plays
Wesley Matthews (FD: $5500, DK: $5900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
Nicolas Batum is questionable for tonight’s game against the Sixers. If Batum can’t go, Matthews will see a small uptick in production and possibly minutes as well. Matthews is already listed at a bargain bin price of $5,500 and now draws a premier matchup against the Sixers. The Sixers have allowed more fantasy points to shooting guards than any other team in the NBA this season. Matthews offers great value and makes a terrific play as your second shooting guard tonight on FanDuel.
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $10100, DK: $10500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.3)
Aldridge obviously draws a terrific matchup tonight, but the potential for a blowout makes me wary of paying over $10,000 for him. If you are brave enough to face the elements of a potential blowout, you could be handsomely rewarded though. The Sixers don’t have anyone to match up with Aldridge and they are the second worst rebounding team in the NBA.
Phoenix at Sacramento
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -1, 215 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
| Phoenix | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215 |  | Vegas Total | 215 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.00 | Team Proj. | 108.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.63 | Team Pace | 96.24 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 29 | 9 | 29 | 2 | Opp. Season | 13 | 20 | 2 | 6 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 30 | 25 | 8 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 7 | 20 | 2 | 27 | |
Phoenix
The NBA has saved one of the best games of the night for last. The Suns are 1-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 215 points. Both teams are projected to score at least 107 points and Vegas is expecting a very close, very competitive game between these two Western Conference teams. This game could provide some gold in the daily fantasy basketball mine.
Elite Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6200, DK: $6900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
Morris has been inconsistent this season, but luckily it has kept his price at a very playable level. He has 40 fantasy point type of upside, yet he is under $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Tonight he heads to Sacramento to take on the Kings, who are ranked 17th in fantasy points allowed to power forwards this season. Morris has the ability to contribute in multiple statistical categories and should play well in an uptempo, high-scoring game against the Kings.
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $7900, DK: $9100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Bledsoe is coming off of a terrific three-game stretch, averaging 19 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Ben McLemore and the Kings, who have allowed the second most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. Bledsoe is a much better play on FanDuel ($7,900) than he is on DraftKings ($9,100).
Alex Len (FD: $4200, DK: $4000 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 13.1)
Len is my third favorite value at center tonight, behind Kyle O’Quinn and Steven Adams. He could make for an interesting play though, as he has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last five games. He will certainly have his hands full tonight though, as he will match up against DeMarcus Cousins.
Sacramento
The Kings have lost seven of their last ten games, but are still only three games out of the playoff picture in the West. They have a great chance to make up some ground tonight, as they host the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and have given up an average of 103.5 points per game to their opponents this season.
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10400, DK: $10700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 33)
Cousins has picked up right where he left off before he got sick. Over his last three games, he has scored 43, 57, and 43 fantasy points. He draws a premier matchup tonight against the Suns, who have given up the second most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. I fully expect Cousins to put up a monster fantasy outing tonight at home.
Secondary Plays
Darren Collison (FD: $7300, DK: $6500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Collison may be a little too expensive to use on FanDuel, but he offers great value at only $6,500 on DraftKings. He only needs to score 32.5 fantasy points to reach value, which shouldn’t be too difficult considering the fact that he is averaging 32.6 fantasy points per game this season. Collison is a safe cash game play tonight on DraftKings with decent upside in what should be a high scoring game.