NBA Grind Down Friday, December 5th - Page Two
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Cleveland at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -3, 206.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Marion-James-Love-Varejao
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Vasquez-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Cleveland | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.0 |  | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.75 | Team Proj. | 104.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.52 | Team Pace | 96.44 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Shawn Marion | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Anderson Varejao | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Greivis Vasquez | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 22 | Opp. Season | 11 | 25 | 16 | 25 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 23 | 25 | 21 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 30 | 26 | 20 | 4 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers picked up a narrow win over the Knicks last night to make it five in a row. Tonight they head to Toronto to take on the Raptors, who currently sit atop the Eastern Conference standings. This could be a preview of a playoff matchup between these two teams. Vegas has the Cavaliers listed as 3-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 206 points. Both of these teams play at a relatively fast pace, and neither teams minds getting into a track meet with their opponents.
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10700, DK: $11600 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 30.8)
James had another quality outing last night against the Knicks, but he played 40 minutes. He’s been giving hints that he’d like to play a little less per game, but we have yet to see that, especially in close games. James should be in for another terrific fantasy performance tonight as he squares off against Terrence Ross and the Raptors, who are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing SFs. There are enough value plays to fit him into your lineup tonight, however, I do have James Harden ranked slightly ahead of Lebron as the top overall play of the night.
Secondary Plays
Kyrie Irving (FD: $8300, DK: $9300 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Irving had 37 points in last night’s win over the Knicks. Over his last three games, he has scored 48, 42, and 45 fantasy points. His salary on DK reflects his recent level of production, but his salary on FD has yet to go up. Tonight is a great chance to take Irving at his depressed price on FD.
Toronto
Without DeMar DeRozan in the lineup, the story for the Raptors has been all about the back-court duo of Kyle Lowry and Greivis Vasquez. Both have played extremely well in his absence and there is no reason to think that it changes tonight. The Raptors draw a favorable matchup against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 16th in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.1 points per game to their opponents this season.
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $9100, DK: $9600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
If you are one of the few DFS players that has faded Lowry over the last few games, your lineups have probably been hurt by his incredible production. Over his last three games, he is averaging 31 points, 4 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. His price has slowly come up, but at this point, there is no reason why Lowry shouldn’t be locked in as a top play. He should have another big outing tonight against Kyrie Irving, who has never been an elite defender.
Greivis Vasquez (FD: $4800, DK: $4600 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 23.9)
In his three starts this season, he is averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. Based on a 5x salary value system, he basically only needs 24 fantasy points to reach value. That should not be a problem as he has scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last five games. Tonight he squares off against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to SGs. He’s an easy plug and play again tonight. Fade Vasquez at your own risk.
Secondary Plays
Amir Johnson (FD: $4800, DK: $5000 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
The biggest knock on Johnson this season has been his playing time, but he is starting to see more consistent minutes. He has played at least 25 minutes in six of his last seven games. I expect him to see some extended playing time tonight (assuming he can stay out of foul trouble) against the big front-court of the Cavaliers. This is a great opportunity to take advantage of Johnson’s depressed salary.
Houston at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Houston -6, 206 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Black
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams(Q)-Brewer-Wiggins-Young-Dieng
| Houston | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.0 |  | Vegas Total | 206.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.00 | Vegas Sprd | 6.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.0 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.29 | Team Pace | 99.18 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Tarik Black | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Corey Brewer | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 22 | 27 | 26 | 14 | Opp. Season | 1 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 21 | 13 | 24 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 29 | 7 | 15 | 18 | |
Houston
Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones, Patrick Beverley, and Isaiah Canaan are all expected to miss tonight’s game. Jason Terry, Donatas Motiejunas, and Tarik Black will all be in the starting lineup once again. Not only will the Rockets be short-handed (which leads to increased opportunity for the healthy players), but they draw a premier matchup against the T-Wolves. On the season, the T-Wolves are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to score an average of 109.6 points per game.
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10400, DK: $11200 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 30.6)
Dwight Howard is still not healthy enough to return to the floor, which means it will be the James Harden show for at least one more night. In his last six starts without Howard in the lineup, Harden is averaging 28 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 steals per game. His usage rate of 30.6 is off the charts. Harden is my top overall fantasy option tonight; as he squares off against a T-Wolves team that is giving up 109.6 points per game to their opponents. The T-Wolves are also ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to SGs.
Jason Terry (FD: $4100, DK: $5700 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 15.5)
With Patrick Beverley and Isaiah Canaan ruled out, Terry immediately becomes one of the top value plays on the board on FD (he may be a bit too expensive on DK). He has started the last two games for the Rockets and has posted 32 and 33 fantasy points. While we can’t expect a 30-spot from him every night, he really only needs around 20 fantasy points to reach value. He should easily reach that mark tonight against the T-Wolves.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6200, DK: $6500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
Ariza has been one of my favorite targets at small forward since Dwight Howard went down with his injury. He hasn’t exactly put up stellar numbers, but he has been very consistent. He has topped 26 fantasy points in four straight games. Tonight he’ll match up against Andrew Wiggins and the T-Wolves who, are ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing SFs.
Minnesota
The T-Wolves have a tough matchup on paper, but the Rockets will be without their two best defenders in Dwight Howard and Patrick Beverley. The total for this game is set at 206 points, with the T-Wolves projected to score 100 points, so the matchup isn’t terrible. Mo Williams is questionable for tonight, if he is unable to suit up, Zach LaVine would draw the start and would see all of the minutes that he can handle.
Elite Plays
Corey Brewer (FD: $4900, DK: $5700 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20)
Now is the perfect time to buy low on Brewer. His price is down after two subpar fantasy outings in a row. Prior to those two games, Brewer had scored at least 22 fantasy points in each of his previous eight games. He draws a decent matchup against the uptempo Rockets, who will be missing their two best defenders once again. Brewer is one of my favorite plays at SF tonight and makes a good target in both cash games and GPPs.
Secondary Plays
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6600, DK: $7200 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 14.4)
Dieng is coming off of one his best games of the season. He finished with 15 points, 16 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals. Dieng may not be the most agile player in the league, but he gets the job done and is actually a decent passer for a big man. Tonight he squares off against the likes of Tarik Black and Donatas Motiejunas.
Mo Williams (FD: $5500, DK: $6000 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
OR
Zach LaVine (FD: $3600, DK: $4200 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Whichever one of these two gets the start will make a solid fantasy play tonight. Preferably, Williams will draw the start, but LaVine would offer great value if Williams is unable to give it a go. The starter will match up against Jason Terry, who is far from an elite defender at this stage in his career.
San Antonio at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Pick ‘Em, 193 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Diaw
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| San Antonio | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.0 |  | Vegas Total | 193.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.79 | Team Pace | 94.66 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Boris Diaw | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 3 | Opp. Season | 8 | 2 | 18 | 22 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 25 | 18 | 26 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 13 | 17 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs and Grizzlies are two of the best defenses in the NBA. It’s no surprise that Vegas has this game projected as the second lowest scoring of the night. The Spurs are usually a tough team to target regardless of their opponent, but they are a really tough team to target tonight against the Grizzlies. On the season, the Grizzlies are ranked 4th in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to an average of 93.1 points per game. Fantasy options are few and far between in this one.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan (FD: $8000, DK: $8400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Duncan is the one Spurs player that I would consider taking tonight. He’s basically matchup-proof in his old age and should see a full complement of minutes in what is expected to be a close game against the Grizzlies. He also has arguably the best matchup of the starters as he’ll square off against Zach Randolph.
Memphis
Much like the Spurs, there aren’t any fantasy options that really stand out tonight for the Grizzlies. The Spurs are currently ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to an average of 93.2 points per game. With 11 other games on the schedule, you can safely avoid all Grizzlies tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Phoenix at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -5.5, 216 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Plumlee
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Nelson-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Phoenix | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.0 |  | Vegas Total | 216.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.50 | Vegas Sprd | -5.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.25 | Team Proj. | 110.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.33 | Team Pace | 96.3 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 7 | Opp. Season | 15 | 17 | 5 | 19 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 28 | 8 | 19 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 5 | 27 | |
Phoenix
The Suns head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks in a game that has the second highest total of the night. The Suns are currently 5.5-point underdogs with the total for the game set at 216 points. The Mavericks aren’t terrible defensively, but their frenetic pace of play more than makes up for their decent play at the defensive end of the floor.
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $7300, DK: $7900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
It sounds like Isaiah Thomas is questionable for tonight’s game. Bledsoe would see a small fantasy boost if Thomas is out, as there wouldn’t be anyone there to vulture his minutes. Bledsoe has a high usage rate of 23.8 on the season. This game should be played at a very quick pace, which should benefit Bledsoe, as he is at his best in the open floor.
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $7200, DK: $7200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Morris has been very inconsistent this season, which makes it tough to rely on him in cash games. That said, he has shown great upside, especially in games that are played at a fast-pace. The Mavericks have defended PFs well this season, but Morris is priced fairly and makes for an interesting tournament play tonight.
Dallas
The Mavericks have one of the better matchups on the board tonight. The Suns are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league and are currently giving up 103.1 points per game to their opponents. Dirk Nowitzki is expected to be back in the lineup, after taking off the last game to rest. He should be well rested and is one of the hidden gems tonight on DK.
Elite Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $7800, DK: $8200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.7)
Ellis is coming off of a monster game against the Bucks. Not only did he score 44 fantasy points, but he also hit the game winner. His price on DK may be a little high for my liking, but he’s still very much in play on FD at only $7,800. Ellis has scored at least 42 fantasy points in three of his last four games and draws a favorable matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing SGs.
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $7600, DK: $6200 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 27.1)
Nowitzki is a DK-specific play tonight. He is only $6,200 on DK, which means that he only needs to score 31 fantasy points to reach value. He is obviously more than capable of that and he should be well-rested after taking the game off the other night. While Markieff Morris is a good defender, Nowitzki’s price is just too good to ignore.
Miami at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -2, 195 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-McRoberts-Williams-Bosh
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Sanders
| Miami | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.0 |  | Vegas Total | 195.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.13 | Team Pace | 95.95 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mario Chalmers | Dwyane Wade | Josh McRoberts | Shawne Williams | Chris Bosh | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | O.J. Mayo | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Larry Sanders | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 21 | 28 | 11 | 30 | Opp. Season | 18 | 30 | 12 | 1 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 20 | 29 | 11 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 14 | |
Miami
The Heat are 9-9 to start the season. Tonight they will head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks, who have been very good on the defensive end of the floor this season. The Bucks are ranked 7th in defenisve efficiency, but their fast pace of play has led opponents to score an average of 99.4 points per game against them. This may not be the best matchup on the board, but we don’t have to avoid it completely.
Injury Note: Luol Deng is out tonight. Norris Cole is listed as questionable. Deng’s absence gives a boost to Josh McRoberts.
Elite Plays
Chris Bosh (FD: $8700, DK: $8600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 29.2)
Bosh’s production hasn’t dipped at all with Dwyane Wade back in the lineup. If anything, it helps create better shots for him as defenses have to deal with two elite scorers, rather than one. On the season, Bosh is averaging 23 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He finds himself in a terrific matchup tonight against Larry Sanders and the Bucks, who are ranked 23rd in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing centers.
Secondary Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8100, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 32)
Wade is coming off of one of his best games of the season. As long as he is healthy and in the lineup, he is a steal when he is under $8,000 on either FD or DK. His usage rate on the season is at 32, which is right up there with the James Harden’s of the world. While the matchup against the Bucks isn’t ideal, Wade fills up all areas of the stat sheet and still seems a bit too cheap for the level of production that he can provide.
Milwaukee
The Bucks are 2-point favorites tonight over the Heat in what should be considered a fantasy-friendly matchup. The Heat are currently ranked 24th in defensive efficiency, 29th in rebounding differential, and they have allowed opponents to score an average of 97.8 points per game this season. The biggest issue with the Bucks is their lack of a consistent rotation. Last game showed that not even the rookie of the year candidate is safe from Jason Kidd’s wacky substitution patterns.
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight (FD: $7600, DK: $7200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
After being bit by the snake that is Jason Kidd’s inconsistent rotations for the Nth time this season, I will only be targeting Knight in this one. He is the one Bucks player that is guaranteed to see consistent minutes on a nightly basis. Knight is averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists per game this season. His price is still affordable on both FD and DK. Continue targeting him as a high-upside play tonight against the Heat.
Secondary Plays
None