NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 2nd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Brooklyn at Orlando
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -1.5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Karasev-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-O’Quinn-Vucevic
| Brooklyn | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.54 | Team Pace | 94.58 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Sergey Karasev | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Kyle O’Quinn | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 10 | 20 | 12 | 30 | Opp. Season | 27 | 14 | 22 | 24 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 15 | 27 | 7 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 12 | 24 | 14 | 23 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets have won six of their last ten games and no longer seem to be in the fire-sale mode that they were a couple of weeks ago. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on a Magic team in a quest to win their third game in a row. The Nets are 1.5-point favorites in a game that features a fairly low total of 193.5 points. Kevin Garnett is expected to be back in the lineup tonight, sending Brook Lopez back to the bench.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 13-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson (FD: $7100, DK: $6700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
Johnson will throw in a dud fantasy performance every now and then, but for the most part, he has really played well recently. He has scored at least 29 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. His price has come up a bit on FanDuel but is still sitting at a very playable $6,700 on DraftKings. He draws a favorable matchup against Tobias Harris and the Magic, who have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Jarrett Jack (FD: $5800, DK: $6000 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Jack has been playing so well that the Nets have kept him in the starting lineup, even though Deron Williams is back and playing well. Over his last six games, Jack is averaging 18 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. As long as he remains in the starting lineup, he deserves consideration tonight against the Magic, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to points guards this season.
Orlando
The Magic have not played well at home this season. They are only 4-10 at home, compared to their respectable record of 9-12 on the road. They have a lot of young talent but are still a piece or two away from being a playoff-caliber team. Tonight they host the Nets, who have been very average defensively this season. This matchup doesn’t exactly stand out, but we don’t have to shy away from it either.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 15-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6300, DK: $5600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Oladipo is in play on FanDuel but has to be considered one of the best values at the position on DraftKings. He is listed at a bargain-bin price of $5,600, meaning he only needs to score 28 fantasy points to reach value tonight. He is certainly capable of reaching that mark, as he has scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last six games. Tonight is a chance to take a high-usage player at a discount.
Secondary Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8700, DK: $8600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Vucevic will likely go overlooked tonight, given the fact that the center position is loaded with value. While I won’t be targeting him in cash games, he does make for an intriguing tournament option. The Nets are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and Vucevic has a knack of being in the right place at the right time for easy put-backs on offense. Vucevic has 20/20 type of upside and he’ll have a low percentage of ownership in tournaments.
Cleveland at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -2.5, 193 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miller-Marion-Love-Thompson
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Biyombo
| Cleveland | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.8 | Team Proj. | 95.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.57 | Team Pace | 94.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Mike Miller | Shawn Marion | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 15 | Opp. Season | 6 | 29 | 10 | 21 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 29 | 15 | 15 | 8 | |
Cleveland
LeBron James is going to miss the next two weeks, which means Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are going to have to keep the ship afloat. The ship has already started to sink, even with LeBron in the lineup, so this will be a tough task for Irving and Love. The Cavaliers head to Charlotte to take on the Hornets tonight. The Cavaliers are 2.5-point favorites in a game that features a fairly low total of 193 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 10-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Kyrie Irving (FD: $8800, DK: $9300 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 24.3)
Irving’s usage rate has been much higher with LeBron off the floor this season. We’ve seen that over the last two games, as he has averaged 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists per game without LeBron. Irving’s price has come up a bit, but his increased role in the offense more than offsets that. Irving should be in for another big fantasy outing tonight against the Hornets, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Tristan Thompson (FD: $5900, DK: $6100 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 14.8)
Thompson has been terrific in his last four games, averaging 14 points and 13 rebounds per game. What may be even more impressive is the fact that he has averaged 39 minutes per game during that stretch. Thompson doesn’t have a high usage in the Cavaliers’ offense, but he should be a near-lock for double-digit rebounds again tonight against the Hornets. Thompson has a very high floor and a decent ceiling as well, making him a great target in both cash games and tournaments.
Secondary Plays
Kevin Love (FD: $8500, DK: $9200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Love has been off my fantasy radar for the better part of a month now, but is back in the fold now that LeBron James has been ruled out for the next two weeks. His usage in this offense should go up and he’ll likely see a couple of extra minutes per game as well. I still have him listed as a secondary play, as the Hornets have been stingy against power forwards this season.
Charlotte
The Hornets will be without Lance Stephenson and Al Jefferson again tonight, which means it will be another edition of the Kemba Walker Show. The Hornets are 2.5-point underdogs at home, but they do draw a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Cavaliers. On the season, the Cavaliers have given up an average of 99.6 points per game to their opponents.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 18-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $8500, DK: $9400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Walker was held in check by Patrick Beverley the other night, but had two terrific fantasy outings in the two previous games. He scored 56 fantasy points against the Magic and 42 fantasy points against the Bucks. He will continue to be the primary scorer in this offense with Stephenson and Jefferson out and he draws a decent matchup against Kyrie Irving, who is not an elite on-ball defender. Walker may be a little too expensive to target on DraftKings, but he’s one of the top point guard plays tonight on FanDuel.
Gerald Henderson (FD: $4700, DK: $4600 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 17)
Henderson’s minutes and usage are both up with Lance Stephenson out, yet he is still priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. That’s more than fine with me, as I continue to have a heavy amount of exposure to him in my lineups. Henderson has scored at least 23 fantasy points in five of his last eight games and is now the number two option offensively.
Secondary Plays
Cody Zeller (FD: $4900, DK: $4500 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 16.2)
In the first game without Al Jefferson, Zeller played 26 minutes and scored 20 fantasy points. We can probably expect a similar outing from him tonight, as he takes on a Cavaliers’ defense that has allowed the tenth most fantasy points to power forwards this season. Zeller’s upside is somewhat limited, but he is a low-risk, medium-reward option for cash games.
Dallas at Boston
- Vegas Line – Dallas -5.5, 215 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Zeller
| Dallas | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215 |  | Vegas Total | 215 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.3 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.15 | Team Pace | 100.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jeff Green | Jared Sullinger | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 25 | Opp. Season | 29 | 8 | 17 | 7 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 29 | 20 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks head to Boston to take on the Celtics in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night. The Mavericks are 5.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 215 points. Both of these teams love to push the pace and there should be plenty of fantasy goodness to go around in this one.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 11-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Rajon Rondo (FD: $8200, DK: $7900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
It didn’t take long for Rondo to face his former team. After spending only six games with the Mavericks, Rondo now has to face the Celtics in Boston. This won’t exactly be a revenge game, as he left on good terms, but he will certainly have the added motivation to put on a show tonight. As a member of the Mavericks, Rondo is averaging a mediocre 13 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. Rondo is averaging five more shot attempts per game as a Maverick and I’m fully expecting him to have a big fantasy outing tonight.
Monta Ellis (FD: $7500, DK: $7500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.7)
Ellis is another Mavericks’ player that I will be heavily targeting tonight. The Celtics are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league and have allowed opponents to score an average of 103.7 points per game. Even with Rajon Rondo in the lineup, Ellis is still averaging 21 points and 4 assists per game. He should play well in a game that will feature a ton of fast-break points.
Tyson Chandler (FD: $7000, DK: $7000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
Chandler is in a terrific spot tonight against the Celtics under-sized front-court. The Celtics have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Chandler should dominate the glass on both ends of the floor and he should be on the receiving end of quite a few of Rondo’s passes that lead to easy buckets.
Secondary Plays
The entire starting five of the Mavericks are in play tonight, but you may want to limit your exposure to 2-3 players since we have a full slate of games tonight. The following two are also in play, but I don’t have them ranked quite as high as Rondo, Ellis, and Chandler:
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $7100, DK: $7400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6800, DK: $7100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Boston
The Celtics are an extremely tough team to predict right now. They have a lot of good players that are all playing between 20-30 minutes per game. Jeff Green is really the only player that seems to get 30+ minutes per game, but even his minutes aren’t secure at this point. Their matchup against the Mavericks is a favorable one, but there isn’t a single player that stands out to me tonight on the Celtics. With ten other games on tap, I’ll be avoiding the Celtics in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 23-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Detroit at New York
- Vegas Line – Detroit -2, 198 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Hardaway-Anthony-Smith-Aldrich
| Detroit | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 98.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.26 | Team Pace | 92.42 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Carmelo Anthony | Jason Smith | Cole Aldrich | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 22 | Opp. Season | 8 | 17 | 6 | 30 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 22 | 6 | |
Detroit
The Pistons have won three games in a row, all without Josh Smith. They are clearly a better team without Smith, as it allows Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond to be on the floor longer. Both players have the ability to dominate the paint. The Pistons will look for their fourth win in a row tonight against the Knicks, who have lost nine in a row. I don’t bet on sports often, but I like the Pistons’ chances of covering the 2-point spread tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 5-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $6300, DK: $7500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
Monroe got off to a quick start the other night against the Magic, but the bench played so well after they took him out, that he didn’t get back in the game until the second half. He really failed to get it going after that, finishing with only 20 fantasy points in 21 minutes of action. His minutes should be back up in the mid-thirties tonight, as the Pistons take on a short-handed front-court of the Knicks. Monroe is too cheap on FanDuel tonight and is easily my top power forward on that site. He will not be priced this cheap for much longer, so take advantage of it while you can.
Secondary Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $9300, DK: $9900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
I’d love to recommend Drummond as an elite play tonight against a short-handed front-court of the Knicks, but his hefty price tag just won’t let me do it. Using a 5x-salary value system, he needs to score between 45-50 fantasy points to reach value tonight. Is he capable of that? Sure, but it’s hard to rely on him to put up that type of performance on a nightly basis. For that reason, he is only a GPP option in my eyes.
New York
The Knicks have lost nine straight games and are catching the Pistons at the worst time possible. The Pistons are finally playing well together. Vegas is giving the Knicks a good chance of ending their losing streak though, as they are only listed as 2-point underdogs. This game has a fairly high total of 198 points. It may not be the fastest-paced game of the night, but it does feature two very bad defenses.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 8-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Cole Aldrich (FD: $5100, DK: $5300 / MPG: 15 / Usage Rate: 16.5)
I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop and for Aldrich to go back to being an average bench player in the NBA. I’m still not 100% sold on him, but over his last seven games, he is averaging 11 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He has scored at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last three games and should see another heavy dose of minutes tonight if Amar’e Stoudemire is ruled out. He draws a decent matchup against the Pistons, who have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to centers this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Houston at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – Houston -1.5, 201.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Smith-Howard
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Babbitt-Davis-Asik
| Houston | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201.5 |  | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.73 | Team Pace | 95.07 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Josh Smith | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Tyreke Evans | Luke Babbitt | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 15 | 26 | 10 | 6 | Opp. Season | 4 | 19 | 19 | 13 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 24 | 1 | 28 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 25 | 16 | 2 | 25 | |
Houston
The Rockets head to New Orleans to take on a Pelicans team that has really played well at home this season (10-4). Vegas has the Rockets listed as 1.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 201.5 points. This is a fantasy-friendly matchup for the Rockets, as the Pelicans have given up an average of 101.9 points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 16-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11500, DK: $11700 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.6)
As usual, Harden is one of the top overall fantasy options tonight. He is having an outstanding season, averaging 28 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. He is capable of dropping a 60-burger (fantasy points) every time he takes the floor. He should have no problem putting up another big performance tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency this season.
Secondary Plays
Patrick Beverley (FD: $5800, DK: $5200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
Beverley is an interesting value play at point guard tonight. He is under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and draws a favorable matchup against the Pelicans, who have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to point guards this season. Beverley has scored at least 23 fantasy points in six of his last eight games and is a frequent visitor of the three-point bonus on DraftKings.
New Orleans
The Pelicans are a fringe playoff team in the Western Conference. If they are going to make a playoff push, they are going to need to improve their play on the road. The good news is that they are playing at home tonight against the Rockets. This is a tough matchup for fantasy production though. The Rockets are ranked second in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to 97.0 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 22-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 97
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7300, DK: $7800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 26)
Evans has some of the most glaring home and road splits of any player in the NBA. In 14 games at home this season, Evans is averaging 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. On the road, he is only averaging 13 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. Tonight he draws a home matchup against the Rockets, who have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. His price is more than reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings, making him one of the top plays at shooting guard.
Secondary Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11300, DK: $11600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Davis has a terrific matchup against Josh Smith, but the combination of his hefty price tag and the other options at power forward, left me with no choice but to put him as a secondary play. We all know that Davis has 60 fantasy point type of upside. He’s certainly in play tonight, but there are a couple of other superstars that I’d rather pay up for tonight.
Omer Asik (FD: $4800, DK: $4400 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
Revenge game! All right, I’m not really recommending Asik because he is facing his former team. But I do think he makes a good value play in a game where he could see some extended playing time. Dwight Howard is a tough cover on defense and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Asik play close to 30 minutes tonight. The NBA is all about value and Asik offers that tonight.