NBA Grind Down Friday, January 2nd - Page Two
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Washington at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -6.5, 210 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
| Washington | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.75 | Team Proj. | 108.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.07 | Team Pace | 95.97 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 3 | Opp. Season | 5 | 2 | 27 | 2 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 2 | 14 | 23 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 20 | 29 | 9 | 11 | |
Washington
The Wizards head to Oklahoma City to take on a Thunder team that is at full-strength. This game should be one of the highest-scoring games of the night and I fully expect this one to turn into a track meet. The total is set at 210 points and I wouldn’t be surprised to see these two teams hit the over. The Thunder do have a good defense, but their increased pace of play with Westbrook and Durant on the floor together more than offsets that.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 16-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9500, DK: $10400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Wall is the only Wizards player that I will be targeting tonight. He’s typically a much better fantasy option at home, but he should bring his A-game tonight in a battle between two of the best point guards in the NBA. Wall also draws a favorable matchup against the Thunder, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. Wall makes a terrific contrarian play for tournaments and may even be in the mix as a cash game play on FanDuel ($9,500).
Secondary Plays
None
Oklahoma City
The Thunder finally have their big two healthy again and should start to rack up the wins. They are 6.5-point favorites tonight against the Wizards in what is expected to be a high-scoring game. While the Wizards do have an elite defense, I’m expecting this one to turn into a track meet.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 22-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $11700, DK: $11500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 39.3)
Did anyone else have their New Year’s hopes and dreams shattered by Westbrook the other night? He was on pace for 60+ fantasy points before picking up two quick technical fouls right before halftime. As much as that hurt, we have to forgive and forget in daily fantasy. Prior to that game, Westbrook had scored at least 45 fantasy points in ten straight games. He is an elite point guard that should not be counted out tonight. I have a feeling his ownership level will be low, even though it shouldn’t be.
Kevin Durant (FD: $10600, DK: $11100 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 31.5)
Durant is coming off of his best game of the season. While some of that was helped by the fact that Russell Westbrook was thrown out of the game right before halftime, you still can’t discount Durant’s performance against the Suns. He finished with 44 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists. Coach Scott Brooks has said that Durant will play somewhere in the range of 35 minutes per game. Durant should have no problem scoring against Paul Pierce and the Wizards, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Indiana at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -1.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Sloan-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-O’Bryant-Pachulia
| Indiana | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.50 | Vegas Sprd | -1.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 98 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.15 | Team Pace | 96.53 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Donald Sloan | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Johnny O’Bryant | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 16 | 24 | 5 | 26 | Opp. Season | 23 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 17 | 3 | 13 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 18 | 4 | 17 | 13 | |
Indiana
The Pacers head to Milwaukee to face the Bucks. This is one of those games that I couldn’t have cared less about before the wonderful world of DFS entered my life. But now, it’s just as important as every other game on the schedule. The Pacers are 1.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 194.5 points. The Bucks are pretty solid defensively, but play at a very fast pace, which has led them to give up an average of 99.3 points per game to their opponents this season.
Injury Note: George Hill has been ruled out for tonight’s game. C.J. Watson is listed as questionable.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 17-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
David West (FD: $6600, DK: $6500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
West is on the verge of having a breakout fantasy performance. He seems to play extremely well in one quarter and then disappear in the next. He’s been a reliable fantasy option though, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in each of his last ten games. He is worth a look tonight against the Bucks, who will be without both Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova.
Donald Sloan (FD: $4300, DK: $3000 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
This pick hinges on the health of C.J. Watson. If Watson is ruled out, Sloan would likely slide into the starting lineup. If that’s the case, he would immediately become the top value play on DraftKings, as he is listed at the minimum salary of $3,000. Check the injury news throughout the day and use Sloan as an injury plug-and-play if Watson is ruled out.
Milwaukee
The Bucks have one of the worst matchups on the board tonight. The Pacers are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA and they are ranked in the top ten in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential. The Bucks’ team total is only set at 98 points, which is a bit lower than their season average. I’d typically avoid this situation completely, but there are actually a couple of players that stand out in this one.
Injury Note: Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova have both been ruled out of tonight’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 12-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Zaza Pachulia (FD: $4900, DK: $4100 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
With Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova both ruled out for tonight’s game, Pachulia should see close to 30 minutes of playing time tonight, especially considering the fact that the Pacers have a very large front-court with David West and Roy Hibbert. Pachulia has played well when given the opportunity. He is a low-risk, medium-reward fantasy option for both cash games and tournaments tonight.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6300, DK: $6000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.4)
Giannis is really starting to turn a corner with his play. Over the last six games, he has scored 39, 26, 22, 11, 37, and 37 fantasy points. He has seen a big uptick in playing time with Jabari Parker out for the season and is worth a look tonight against the Pacers. He still has some trouble with consistency, but he provides great upside for the price.
Philadelphia at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -14.5, 209.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Sampson-Covington-Noel-Sims
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
| Philadelphia | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.5 |  | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.5 | Vegas Sprd | -14.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 112 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.52 | Team Pace | 98.65 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 12 | 16 | 8 | 28 | Opp. Season | 13 | 27 | 30 | 20 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 1 | 30 | 26 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 23 | 28 | 25 | 12 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers are double-digit underdogs again tonight as they head to Phoenix to take on the Suns. While they will likely be on the wrong end of another blowout, this is actually a pretty favorable matchup for fantasy production. The Suns are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league and they have given up an average of 104.9 points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 18-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5600, DK: $5700 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Covington is in a perfect situation right now. He plays on a terrible Sixers team, yet he’s guaranteed to see big minutes every night. He also has the green light to shoot. As a starter this season, Covington is averaging 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. His price is still very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Using a 5x-salary value system, Covington needs to score around 28 fantasy points to reach value tonight. He’s certainly of that and more, as he has scored at least 28 fantasy points in five of his last ten games.
Secondary Plays
None
Phoenix
When the Sixers are on the road, we usually have the same debate. Do we target players against them thanks to the favorable matchup? Or do we avoid taking players against them because there is a great probability of the game turning into a blowout? I wish I had the answer for you, but unfortunately I don’t. The Suns have a terrific matchup, but are fairly risky fantasy options given the potential blowout. On a night with ten other games on the schedule, I will likely target the Suns as GPP options and avoid them in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 4-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8800, DK: $9700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
Bledsoe makes a terrific tournament play tonight. His price has sky-rocketed due to his recent level of play, which should lead to a lower level of ownership. Bledsoe has terrific upside and a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. If the Sixers can keep this one relatively close, Bledsoe could push for another 50 fantasy point outing.
Atlanta at Utah
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -4, 196 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hood-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
| Atlanta | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.13 | Team Pace | 92.62 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Rodney Hood | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 11 | 14 | 25 | 4 | Opp. Season | 2 | 28 | 15 | 9 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 30 | 8 | 11 | 27 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks could find themselves atop the Eastern Conference standings tonight with a win. They are only a half-game behind the Raptors, who have the tough task of facing the Warriors in Oakland. The Hawks, on the other hand, have a much easier matchup against the Jazz. Vegas has the Hawks listed as 4-point favorites tonight. The Jazz are one of the slower-paced teams in the league, but they are ranked 27th in defensive efficiency.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 11-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 100
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $8400, DK: $9100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Now this is a revenge game that has some merit. The first time that Millsap faced the Jazz this season, he posted a monster stat line of 30 points, 17 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals. Millsap is also coming into tonight’s game on a high note, averaging 41 fantasy points per game over his last four. The Jazz have also struggled against power forwards this season, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position.
Secondary Plays
None
Utah
The Jazz have actually played pretty well recently, winning five of their last ten games. They are only 4-point underdogs tonight against the Hawks, but this is a fairly tough matchup in terms of potential fantasy production. The Hawks are ranked seventh in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to an average of 97.4 points per game. Trey Burke and Gordon Hayward are both decent tournament plays, but I will likely be avoiding the Jazz altogether tonight.
Injury Note: Rodney Hood is questionable for tonight’s game.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 23-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Toronto at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -5, 215.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Ross-Johnson-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Speights
| Toronto | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.5 |  | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.3 | Team Proj. | 110.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.37 | Team Pace | 100.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Terrence Ross | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Marreese Speights | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 18 | 23 | 22 | 2 | Opp. Season | 17 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 19 | 21 | 19 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 14 | 7 | 18 | 16 | |
Toronto
This is a game that I can’t wait to watch. The best two teams in their respective conferences face off tonight in a game that has the highest total on the board. The Raptors are only 5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 215.5 points. The Warriors do own an elite defense, but like the Wizards/Thunder game, I expect this one to turn into a shootout.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 25-5
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $9900, DK: $10700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Lowry has established himself as one of the top point guards in the NBA. On the season, he is averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. Tonight he will match up against another top point guard in Stephen Curry. I expect both of these players to match each other shot for shot and for both to have monster fantasy outings.
Secondary Plays
James Johnson (FD: $4600, DK: $4700 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
Johnson makes a nice tournament play tonight. He has played well since being inserted into the starting lineup, scoring at least 24 fantasy points in four of his last six games. The thing holding him back from being an elite play is his inconsistent playing time. His minutes have ranged from 19 to 33 in the last four games.
Golden State
The Warriors have played well all season long, despite having to deal with quite a few injuries in their front-court. They will be without Andrew Bogut again tonight as they host the Raptors. The Warriors are projected to score 110.3 points tonight in a game that should be full of fantasy goodness.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 24-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10000, DK: $11000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28)
If I had to choose between the two, I would have Curry ranked slightly ahead of Lowry tonight, although both are excellent plays. Curry has averaged 41.6 fantasy points per game this season and he’s done it in an average of only 33 minutes per game. Assuming this game stays close, Curry could play 37+ minutes tonight. Curry has only scored more than 50 fantasy points one time in his last ten games, but he should be able to reach that mark tonight.
Draymond Green (FD: $7700, DK: $7800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 17)
Green is a power forward that does it all. He can score, rebound, pass, and defend. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games and rarely has a bad fantasy outing. His price has come up a bit on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he is an elite play tonight against the Raptors.
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7800, DK: $8100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Thompson is having a terrific season, averaging 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He has the potential to score 30 actual points every time he takes the floor. He would be listed as an elite play weren’t for his tough matchup against the Raptors, who have been stingy against opposing shooting guards this season.