NBA Grind Down Friday, November 14th - Page Two
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Minnesota at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -7, 206.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Martin-Wiggins-Bennett-Pekovic
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Asik
| Minnesota | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.75 | Team Proj. | 106.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.19 | Team Pace | 95.4 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Anthony Bennett | Nikola Pekovic | Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Tyreke Evans | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 6 | 27 | 20 | 8 | Opp. Season | 3 | 21 | 17 | 16 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 8 | 27 | 27 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 23 | 29 | 12 | 15 | |
Minnesota
The Timberwolves will obviously be without Ricky Rubio tonight, but they will also be without Thaddeus Young. Anthony Bennett is tentatively expected to draw the start at PF. Gorgui Dieng and Nikola Pekovic may both see a boost in minutes and production as well. The short-handed Wolves will have their hands full with Anthony Davis and company tonight. The Wolves are 7-point underdogs in a game that features a high total of 206 points.
Prime Plays
Nikola Pekovic – With Young out, that solidifies Pek’s minutes down low as he and Gorgui Dieng will likely play on the floor together while Young is out. I expect him to play around 35 minutes per game and if you look at his per-35 minute totals, he’s averaging 17 points and 11 rebounds. Those are very attainable even in a tough matchup against Omer Asik.
Zach LaVine – LaVine will be making his third career start tonight. It appears that the Timberwolves are going to try to develop their young rookie rather than give minutes to the proven veteran in Mo Williams. LaVine is coming off of his best game of his career with 8 points, 3 rebounds, and 9 assists in 34 minutes of playing time. There are only a few opportunities during the season to target a starting PG at his price point.
Secondary Plays
Anthony Bennett – This pick is contingent on him getting the start at PF. Bennett has been productive in limited minutes this season and is close to minimum salary on most sites. If he sees 25 minutes of action, he should more than reach value.
New Orleans
The Pelicans are projected to be one of the highest scoring teams of the night. They are 7-point favorites with the total set at 207 points. The Timberwolves play at an above-average pace (97.2 possessions per 48 minutes) and they have a below-average defense (19th in defensive efficiency). Both bode well for the Pelicans tonight who will be playing at home where the statisticians are very generous to say the least. Don’t be surprised to see a few phantom rebounds, blocks, and assists tonight.
Prime Plays
Anthony Davis – At this point, I shouldn’t have to sell you on Davis. He’s been easily the best fantasy player in the NBA. He is averaging 25 points, 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 blocks, and 2 steals per game. He’s easily the best fantasy player in the NBA. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Thaddeus Young and the Timberwolves who are ranked 16th against PFs this season. Fade Davis at your own risk.
Tyreke Evans – Evans technically starts at SF, but he’s the main play-maker in this offense. His usage rate is higher than both Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday. In an ideal world, it would be either Evans or Holiday running the offense, but their semi-uptempo style of play has allowed both players to be productive. For my money, I’ll take Evans over Holiday as he has a higher usage rate and a better ability to fill up the stat sheet.
Secondary Plays
Jrue Holiday – The issue with Holiday is that he doesn’t dominate the ball like most PGs do. Tyreke Evans takes over a lot of the play-making in this offense which is evidenced by looking at their usage rates. Evans’ is at 25.4 while Holiday’s is at 20.5. Still, I like the matchup against the rookie LaVine.
Philadelphia at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -16, 207 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Wroten-Thompson-McDaniels-Richard Mbah a Moute-Sims
- Houston Proj. Starters – Canaan-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| Philadelphia | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 16.00 | Vegas Sprd | -16.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.39 | Team Pace | 97.66 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Wroten | Hollis Thompson | K.J. McDaniels | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | Henry Sims | Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 7 | 24 | 9 | 16 | Opp. Season | 2 | 30 | 26 | 6 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 10 | 30 | 4 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 30 | 17 | 24 | 3 | |
Philadelphia
Sound the alarm! The Sixers lost by a whopping 53 points last night. I’m a big fan of watching the box scores each night and I couldn’t believe my eyes when I first checked the score and saw that it was 54-16 in the early stages of the second quarter. I knew at that point that it was going to be tough for the starters from either team to have any chance of reaching value. Unfortunately, the same could apply in tonight’s game. Blowouts are awfully difficult to predict, but the Sixers are 16-point underdogs against a very talented Rockets team.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
K.J. McDaniels – McDaniels got the start for the 76ers last night. While he didn’t play well, neither did any of his teammates. Expect a better effort from McDaniels as the Rockets are ranked dead last against SFs this season. McDaniels is an interesting value play that should see around 30 minutes regardless of the game’s outcome.
Michael Carter-Williams – MCW made his debut last night and played more than most of us expected him to. He finished with 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists in 30 minutes of action. He’s worth a look as a tournament play tonight at his discounted price.
Houston
What to do? What to do? The Rockets have a terrific matchup against the Sixers, but as we saw last night, blowouts really hurt players fantasy outputs as starters rarely see the 4th quarter if the game is already out of hand. It was hard to fade the Mavericks last night on a four-game slate, but it should be easier to fade the Rockets with a ten-game slate. With the potential blowout, I will be fading James Harden and Dwight Howard (GULP) in cash games.
Injury Note: Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones are both out tonight. Isaiah Canaan and Donatas Motiejunas will round out the Rockets starting five.
Prime Plays
Donatas Motiejunas – It’s a bit strange recommending Motiejunas as a prime play while Howard and Harden are only secondary plays, but the 16-point line has me worried about the expensive players reaching value. Motiejunas is in an excellent spot to reach and exceed value. Motiejunas has scored 30 and 25 fantasy points in his last two games and his minutes likely won’t hinge on the outcome of the game.
Secondary Plays
James Harden – Harden is second only to Anthony Davis in fantasy points per game this season. He has been seemingly unstoppable and to think one of the league’s worst defenses will put up much of a fight is ludicrous. Harden will play well tonight, but will he see enough minutes to reach and exceed value?
Dwight Howard – Obviously, the matchup is one of the best on the board. The Sixers are ranked 23rd against centers and have the worst rebounding differential in the NBA. That said, I will only be targeting him in tournaments.
Isaiah Canaan – Canaan is coming off of a subpar performance against the Timberwolves in Mexico City, but he’s played well in his few spot starts this season and is still very cheap on most fantasy sites.
Detroit at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -3.5, 190 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Lamb-Thomas-Ibaka-Adams
| Detroit | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190 |  | Vegas Total | 190 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.25 | Team Proj. | 96.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.14 | Team Pace | 93.94 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Josh Smith | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Jeremy Lamb | Lance Thomas | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 25 | Opp. Season | 4 | 23 | 7 | 22 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 19 | 12 | 2 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 26 | 7 | 17 | 28 | |
Detroit
The Pistons have lost three in a row and have fallen to 2-6 on the season. Tonight they head to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder in what is expected to be one of the lowest scoring games of the night. The Thunder average only 93.9 possessions per 48 minutes. The Thunder are ranked 18th in defensive efficiency and 6th in rebounding differential. Due to the matchup and inconsistent nature of the Pistons, you should tread lightly in this one.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Brandon Jennings – I’m going to label Jennings as a GPP-only play tonight. He’s played well in his last four games with 29, 33, 31, and 53 fantasy points (FD scoring), but that’s not enough to build confidence in him as a cash game option.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder are trying to hold down the fort while Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are out. So far, they haven’t fared all that well as they are only 3-6 to start the season. Their matchup against the Pistons tonight is mediocre at best. The Pistons play at a very slow pace, averaging only 94.1 possessions per 48 minutes. The Pistons are also a good rebounding team. The one thing that the Thunder have going for them tonight is that they are still short-handed.
Injury Note: Andre Roberson and Perry Jones are both out tonight. Jeremy Lamb and Anthony Morrow will continue to see extended playing time.
Prime Plays
Reggie Jackson – Jackson has been a must-play for me every night that he takes the floor. He has played at least 40 minutes in every single game this season and he has a 26.4 usage rate which is the 18th highest of any player in the NBA. Basically, he’s going to get all of the minutes and shot attempts that he can handle. Look for Jackson to have another strong game against Brandon Jennings who is not a great on-ball defender.
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka – Ibaka hasn’t stepped up offensively this season, but he is still averaging 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. His price is affordable and he has a good matchup against the Pistons who are ranked 22nd against PFs this season.
Anthony Morrow – Morrow is coming off of a terrific game. He played 31 minutes against the Celtics and put up 34.5 fantasy points on FD. With Roberson and Jones still out, he should see around 30 minutes of action again tonight.
Charlotte at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -5, 203 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Stephenson (?)-Hairston-Zeller-Jefferson
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Morris-Morris-Plumlee
| Charlotte | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.00 | Vegas Sprd | -5.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99 | Team Proj. | 104 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.34 | Team Pace | 98.36 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Lance Stephenson | P.J. Hairston | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | Marcus Morris | Markieff Morris | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 24 | 3 | 30 | 2 | Opp. Season | 25 | 25 | 1 | 12 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 7 | 18 | 15 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 18 | 1 | 21 | 20 | |
Charlotte
The injuries are mounting for the Hornets. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams are both out for tonight’s game. Additionally, Lance Stephenson and Gary Neal are both questionable. Assuming Stephenson suits up, the Hornets will have a starting five of Kemba Walker, Lance Stephenson, P.J. Hairston, Cody Zeller, and Al Jefferson. The Hornets head to Phoenix tonight to face the Suns. The Hornets are now 7-point underdogs with the total for the game set at 201 points.
Prime Plays
Kemba Walker – Walker’s numbers are down this season, partly due to the presence of Lance Stephenson. Walker would see a big fantasy boost if Stephenson has to sit out tonight’s game. Either way, Walker finds himself in a favorable matchup as the Suns are ranked 16th against PGs this season. Keep your eye on Stephenson’s status throughout the day and plug Walker in if Stephenson is ruled out.
Cody Zeller – Zeller will likely be one of the more popular plays tonight. He will draw the start for Marvin Williams and is the classic injury plug and play in daily fantasy basketball. Zeller has played well off the bench this season and should easily reach value tonight given his increased opportunity.
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson – Jefferson is still the number one option in this offense and with all of the injuries to the Hornets, he could end up having an even bigger role in the offense tonight. The issue here is his matchup. The Suns have held opposing centers to the second-fewest fantasy points per game this season.
Phoenix
The Suns have been a tough team to predict this season when it comes to individual fantasy production. They are a well-balanced team with an incredible bench. Isaiah Thomas and Gerald Green have single-handedly ruined a few fantasy outings for both Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic. Additionally, this is a less than ideal matchup. The Hornets are a slow paced team that is ranked 11th in defensive efficiency.
Prime Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris – Morris is really the only fantasy option that we can trust at the moment. With Thomas and Green playing so well off the bench, it’s a scary proposition to target Bledsoe and Dragic. Morris on the other hand doesn’t have anyone challenging him for minutes.
San Antonio at L.A. Lakers
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -7.5, 209 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Bonner
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Bryant-Johnson-Boozer-Hill
| San Antonio | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.3 | Team Proj. | 100.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.51 | Team Pace | 97.77 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Matt Bonner | Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Carlos Boozer | Jordan Hill | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 20 | 6 | 21 | 17 | Opp. Season | 14 | 16 | 11 | 17 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 20 | 2 | 16 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 21 | 15 | 11 | 17 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs are in a fantastic spot tonight. They are facing the Lakers who have that lovely combination of a fast pace of play and a bad defense. The Lakers average 97.8 possessions per 48 minutes and are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency and points allowed per game this season. The best part about this matchup is that the game will be played in Los Angeles so the Spurs are only favored by 7.5. As long as the Lakers keep it competitive, the Spurs should be a fantasy gold mine.
Prime Plays
Kawhi Leonard – Coach Popovich said it himself, he is calling more plays for Leonard than ever has. Leonard has responded admirably over the last three games by averaging 19 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Tonight the Spurs face a Lakers team, which as we all know, is competing with the 76ers for the worst team in the NBA.
Tony Parker – Parker has topped 32 fantasy points in two of his last three games and draws a prime matchup against Jeremy Lin and the Lakers who are ranked 29th against PGs this season. Parker is a great mid-range option tonight that looks like a safe play in cash games.
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan – We can talk about Popovich resting his veterans all we want, but so far Duncan has played at least 30 minutes in every game that he’s been active for. He’s also scored 33 or more fantasy points (FD scoring) in four of the six games that he has played in.
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are looking for their second win of the season. While we don’t necessarily care about that in DFS, we do care about their ability to be competitive as it helps alleviate potential blowouts. The Lakers are playing at home tonight and are expected to keep this one within reach. The total is set at 209 points which is the second highest of the night.
Prime Plays
Kobe Bryant – There are only 3 things that are certain in life. Death, taxes, and Kobe Bryant taking as many shots as he possibly can. Hey, I don’t judge, but what I will do is take advantage of it. Bryant is still fairly priced across the industry and should be considered the top SG not-names James Harden.
Secondary Plays
Jordan Hill – Hill has been very solid this season. He’s averaging 14 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He should have some success on the glass tonight against the likes of Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw.
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