NBA Grind Down Friday, November 21st - Page Three
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Utah at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -11.5, 210 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Burks-Hayward-Kanter-Favors
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Utah | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.25 | Team Proj. | 110.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.75 | Team Pace | 102.16 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Alec Burks | Gordon Hayward | Enes Kanter | Derrick Favors | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 18 | 1 | 23 | 1 | Opp. Season | 20 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 22 | 2 | 15 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 21 | 15 | 2 | 14 | |
Utah
The Jazz find themselves in a very tough spot tonight. While the Warriors do play at a fast-pace, they are an elite team defensively. They are ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency and 8th in rebounding differential. The Jazz are 11.5-point underdogs in a game that could easily turn into a blowout. With so many other favorable matchups to exploit, you can safely avoid all Jazz players tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Golden State
As mentioned above, this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. The Warriors are one of the best home teams in the NBA, and the Jazz are one of the worst road teams in the NBA. While blowouts are tough to predict, if I had to pick one game where a blowout is most likely tonight, I’d pick this one.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10000, DK: $9700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 30.1)
On paper, this is a good matchup for Curry. His price has come down a bit and the Jazz are ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to opposing PGs this season. The issue is that I don’t want to pay up for Curry in a potential blowout. If I’m spending up on a superstar tonight, I’d rather spend my money on Anthony Davis or LeBron James.
Klay Thompson (FD: $7800, DK: $7200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.9)
Thompson has scored at least 30 fantasy points (FD scoring) in each of his last four games. He’s one of the best scorers in the NBA. The Jazz have done a decent job of defending SGs this season, but Thompson’s salary on DK is very enticing, especially considering the three-point bonus over there.
Chicago at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -7.5, 195 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Gibson-Noah
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum (?)-Aldridge-Lopez
| Chicago | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.75 | Team Proj. | 101.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.38 | Team Pace | 95.52 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Taj Gibson | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | ||||||
| Opp. Season | 21 | 3 | 20 | 6 | 16 | Opp. Season | 11 | 20 | 27 | 9 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 18 | 11 | 16 | 21 | |
Chicago
Editor’s Note: Pau Gasol and Kirk Hinrich are out Friday. Aaron Brooks will start at PG and Taj Gibson will start at PF.
There has yet to be an official update on the injuries to Derrick Rose, Pau Gasol, and Kirk Hinrich. From what I gather, it sounds like Gasol and Hinrich are closer to questionable, while Rose is closer to doubtful for tonight’s game. Hopefully, we will get an update sooner rather than later as this game has a late tip-off. If Rose and or Hinrich sit out, that would give a huge fantasy boost to Aaron Brooks. Likewise, Gasol’s absence would give a huge boost to Taj Gibson. Check the injury news throughout the day and adjust your lineups accordingly.
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $7700, DK: $7200 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Butler is the one Bulls’ player whose fantasy value doesn’t hinge on the health of one of his teammates. Butler has been an elite fantasy play all season long. If you haven’t bought into him yet, then you are well behind the 8-ball. Butler is averaging 22 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and my personal favorite, 40 minutes per game. Continue targeting him at SG until he gives you a reason not to.
Joakim Noah (FD: $8000, DK: $7700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 14.1)
After a slow start to the season, Noah has really picked up his level of play. Over his last six games, Noah is averaging 10 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists per game. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points (FD scoring) in five of those six games. If Gasol ends up sitting out, give Noah a slight fantasy boost as he would likely play closer to 35-37 minutes, rather than the 30-32 minutes that he was averaging with Gasol in the lineup.
Secondary Plays
Taj Gibson (FD: $5900, DK: $5900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.2)
This pick hinges on the health of Pau Gasol. If Gasol is ruled out, Gibson becomes one of the top ‘dollar for dollar’ plays on the board tonight. If we don’t have an update on Gasol’s status by 7 ET, it may be a good risk to use Gibson on FD. His level of ownership would be down and you’d have an edge on your opponents if Gasol ended up sitting out.
Aaron Brooks (FD: $4100, DK: $3800 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
This pick hinges on the health of both Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich. If one is out, Brooks would see a nice boost off the bench. If both are out, Brooks becomes close to a must play on both FD and DK. He has a very high usage rate of 26.7 and he is averaging close to a fantasy point per minute. Give him 35 minutes of playing time and who knows what would happen.
Portland
The Blazers are hoping to have Nicolas Batum back for tonight’s game, but we have yet to hear an official announcement from the Blazers. If he does play, it’s probably best to avoid him until he sees a full complement of minutes. Tonight’s matchup against the Bulls is a decent one. The Bulls are not the top five defense that they were a year ago, and they have really struggled on the glass, as they are ranked 21st in rebounding differential.
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9300, DK: $9600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 27.4)
Aldridge is having another solid season. He is averaging 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. His rebounding totals are still a bit low and I expect them to increase as the season progresses. It could happen as early tonight against the Bulls who, as mentioned above, are a bad rebounding team.
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8700, DK: $8900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Lillard is worth a look tonight, but at his price, I’d rather pay a little more and take John Wall instead. For that reason, I will only be using him as a tournament play tonight against the Bulls.