NBA Grind Down: Friday/Saturday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
Cleveland at Atlanta – Friday, 8:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -1, 198.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Shumpert-James-Thompson-Mozgov
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Cleveland | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.8 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.90 | Team Pace | 96.79 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Matthew Dellevedova | Iman Shumpert | LeBron James | Tristan Thompson | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 5 | Opp. Season | 10 | 21 | 20 | 9 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
Editor’s Note: Kyrie Irving will NOT play tonight.
Cleveland
It only took one game for the Cavaliers to steal home-court advantage away from the Hawks. It will be interesting to see if they come out with the same type of focus in Game 2 or if they will have somewhat of a letdown after already picking up at worst a split in Atlanta. The Cavaliers are listed as 1-point favorites tonight in Game 2 with their team total set at 100 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $11700, DK: $11400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 32.5)
James has faced some tough opponents in the postseason, yet he has averaged 54 fantasy points per game since the start of the second round. He has only dipped below the 47-fantasy point mark one time during that stretch, which has made him a great option for both cash games and tournaments. The one concern here is his price tag. He basically needs 55+ fantasy points to reach value. James Harden and Stephen Curry are slightly better plays, dollar for dollar.
Tristan Thompson (FD: $5600, DK: $6000 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
Thompson had yet another good fantasy outing in Game 1 against the Hawks. He played 42 minutes and put up 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocks. He has averaged 29 fantasy points per game over his last five and he should push for 40 minutes of action again in Game 2. The rebounding has been consistent with Thompson and you know LeBron James is going to find him underneath for a few easy buckets per game.
J.R. Smith (FD: $5400, DK: $4900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
Smith had a monster performance in Game 1, scoring 44 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. He has now played at least 34 minutes in each of his last two games and should see starter’s minutes in Game 2, even though he is still coming off of the bench. Smith’s price will likely go up after tonight, so take advantage of the discounted price while you still can.
Secondary Plays
Iman Shumpert (FD: $4700, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 17.2) – Had a very quiet Game 1. People tend to overreact in these situations. While I have him listed as a secondary option, he’s still in a good spot to bounce back in Game 2.
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $4800, DK: $4800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16.1) – Mozgov is the model of inconsistency. His minutes and production both vary game to game. He’s cheap, but he’s better suited as a tournament play.
Matthew Dellavedova (FD: $3400, DK: $3800 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 12.3) – If Kyrie Irving is unable to play, Delly could be a great value play, even at his elevated price point.
Atlanta
The Hawks have yet to show that grit that they had during the regular season. They have done enough to win up to this point, but they are going to need a much better effort than they gave in Game 1 if they are going to have any chance in this series. Vegas has the Hawks listed as 1-point underdogs for Game 2 with their team total set at 99 points. DeMarre Carroll hurt his knee in Game 1 and is currently listed as questionable tonight’s game. If he is unable to play, Kent Bazemore would become a close to a must-start in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
Al Horford (FD: $7800, DK: $7900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Horford only had 26 fantasy points in Game 1, but the uptick in minutes is promising. He has now played at least 37 minutes in each of the last four games. The Hawks will likely treat Game 2 as a must win and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Horford play 40+ minutes in this one. He’s not a must start at center with Dwight Howard playing, but he’s still a strong play.
Jeff Teague (FD: $7300, DK: $7300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Teague was the only Hawks’ player that reached value in Game 1. He scored 38 fantasy points in 37 minutes of action. He arguably has the best matchup of any player on the Hawks, as Kyrie Irving has not been the same defender since injuring his knee. Teague was able to get wherever he wanted on the floor in Game 1 and I expect that to be the case again here in Game 2.
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $8700, DK: $8000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6) – It’s not that Millsap isn’t capable of having a big game, I would just rather target Draymond Green at his price point.
Kyle Korver (FD: $5600, DK: $5200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.2) – He has really struggled with his shot since the start of the second-round series against the Wizards. If he were playing better, he would be an elite play.
Dennis Schroder (FD: $4400, DK: $4800 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 27) – He’s been a solid value play at point guard throughout the playoffs. His price is reflective of his recent level of production though.
Kent Bazemore (FD: $2400, DK: $2300 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 15.5) – He would see an increased role if DeMarre Carroll (knee) is either limited or forced to miss Game 2.
Golden State at Houston – Saturday, 9:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Golden State -1, 216 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Howard
| Golden State | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216 |  | Vegas Total | 216 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.5 | Team Proj. | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.26 | Team Pace | 104.82 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 20 | 17 | 29 | 26 | Opp. Season | 5 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
Golden State
The Warriors held on for a narrow victory in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead. They now have a chance to go up 3-0 with a win over the Rockets in Game 3 in Houston. Vegas has the Warriors listed as 1-point favorites in this game with the total set at 216 points. This is by far the best game to target for daily fantasy purposes, as the total is 18 points higher than that of the Cavaliers/Hawks game.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10400, DK: $10500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Curry has not had the same statistical output as James Harden in this series, but he has matched him shot for shot. Curry scored 52 fantasy points in Game 1 and 42 fantasy points in Game 2. The Warriors may have to lean on him a bit more now that the series shifts to Houston and you know the MVP is up for the challenge. He’s easily the top play at point guard.
Draymond Green (FD: $8200, DK: $7900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
Green has come close to a triple-double in each of the first two games of this series. He’s always one of my favorite plays in daily fantasy because he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. I still have him ranked ahead of Paul Millsap as the top power forward option. The Rockets have struggled to defend the position all season long.
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7000, DK: $7000 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.3) – He has the upside, but not the consistency that we are looking for in cash games. At this point, he’s a better tournament play than a cash game play.
Andrew Bogut (FD: $5000, DK: $4600 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.3) – Bogut had a much better fantasy outing in Game 2, but he’s still an inconsistent option at center. He’s a better tournament play than a cash game play.
Harrison Barnes (FD: $4300, DK: $4900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.8) – Barnes is the best value play if you are looking for a small forward under the price of $5,000. He doesn’t offer a ton of upside, but he’s a viable value option.
Shaun Livingston (FD: $2700, DK: $3200 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 16.4) – Livingston is playing around 20 minutes per game over his last four outings. He’s a decent punt option at point guard.
Houston
The Rockets had a chance to steal Game 2, but James Harden couldn’t get a shot off at the buzzer and they lost by a single point. Now they head home to see if they can pick up a win in Houston. As mentioned above, the Rockets are 1-point underdogs in what is expected to be a very high-scoring game.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10100, DK: $9800 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.3)
After falling one assist shy of a triple-double in Game 1, Harden replicated that performance as he was one assist shy of a triple-double again in Game 2. He has scored 58 and 70 fantasy points in the first two games of the series and his salary has yet to catch up to his recent level of play. At this price, Harden is a very tough fade in both cash games and tournaments.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $6300, DK: $6600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Ariza only had 18 fantasy points in Game 2, but he did play close to 40 minutes. He should have a much better outing in Game 3 in front of the Rockets’ home crowd. Ariza has scored at least 30 fantasy points in six of his last eight games and he should be able to get back on track on Saturday night. If you are fading LeBron James, Ariza is a strong alternative at small forward.
Secondary Plays
Dwight Howard (FD: $8900, DK: $8500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.3) – Howard is a borderline elite play, but the lingering knee injury is a concern. Al Horford may be the safer play in cash games.
Jason Terry (FD: $3300, DK: $4200 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 14.1) – Terry continues to see around 30 minutes per game. At his price point, he is my favorite play of the four punt options at point guard (Delly, Schroder, Livingston).