NBA Grind Down: Monday, April 20th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Milwaukee at Chicago – 8:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Chicago -7.5, 188 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Hinrich-Gasol-Noah
| Milwaukee | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 188 |  | Vegas Total | 188 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 90.3 | Team Proj. | 97.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.06 | Team Pace | 101.06 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 6 | Opp. Season | 1 | 7 | 24 | 13 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 13 | 19 | 21 | 16 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks are out-matched in this series. The Bulls are more talented offensively and they are more physical defensively. The Bucks lost Game 1 by 12 points and I expect a similar fate for them here in Game 2. Vegas has the Bucks listed as 7.5-point underdogs with their team total set at only 90 points. The Bulls present a very difficult matchup for fantasy production, as they were ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential during the regular season. Even in a two-game slate, the Bucks’ players are secondary options at best.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FanDuel: $7000, DraftKings: $6800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6400, DK: $6200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Khris Middleton (FD: $6500, DK: $5700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Ersan Ilyasova (FD: $5400, DK: $5600 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Chicago
The Bulls made quick work of the Bucks in Game 1 and are looking like they could be a contender in the East, assuming they can stay healthy over the next month. The Bulls were able to score 103 points in the first game of the series and while that is promising, they are only projected to score 98 points in Game 2. The Bucks are still one of the better defensive teams in the NBA, as they ranked 7th in points allowed per game during the regular season. As expected, the Bulls really tightened their rotation, as Taj Gibson was the only player to eclipse 20 minutes off the bench.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $8800, DK: $8700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Pau had a very Gasol-like performance in Game 1 of the series, finishing with 10 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 blocks. He may be a little overpriced for his expected production against the Bucks, but we should be willing to pay a premium for a player that offers such a high floor. Gasol has had great success against this Bucks’ team all season long and he should push for 35+ minutes in Game 2. He’s the safest option on the Bulls and on a two-game slate, he’s a strong play in all league formats.
Derrick Rose (FD: $6100, DK: $6700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
Rose may still be on a minutes cap, but he’s priced low enough that he can still reach value in around 30 minutes of playing time. Rose played well in Game 1 against the Bucks, finishing with 23 points, 7 assists, and 2 steals. Rose has an elite usage rate of 30.9 on the season and he should be able to replicate his Game 1 performance tonight. Targeting point guards facing Michael Carter-Williams is a viable DFS strategy that has worked all season.
Joakim Noah (FD: $6300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
Once we get into the playoffs, teams tighten their rotations, which really makes it easy to predict minutes. Now that the Bulls are in the postseason, Noah’s minutes are going to jump from around 30 per game to around 35 per game. Those extra five minutes aren’t factored into his price, especially right now. Noah played well in Game 1, posting 31 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action. He is right there with Andrew Bogut as the top option at center and I don’t mind using both on sites that allow you to roster two centers.
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8300, DK: $7400 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Mike Dunleavy (FD: $4300, DK: $4500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
New Orleans at Golden State – 10:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Golden State -11, 205 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Davis-Asik
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| New Orleans | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205 |  | Vegas Total | 205 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.48 | Team Pace | 99.48 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 16 | Opp. Season | 13 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 19 | 28 | 25 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 5 | 26 | 13 | 25 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans put up a good fight in Game 1, but they eventually fell short against the Warriors, losing 99-106. The big question heading into Game 2 is the availability of Tyreke Evans, who is officially listed as questionable with a left knee bruise. If he is unable to play, Norris Cole and Eric Gordon would be the biggest beneficiaries. Jrue Holiday would also see an uptick in usage, but he still isn’t playing enough minutes, as he is still working his way back from injury. The Pelicans are large underdogs in Game 2, but there are a few fantasy options that stand out here.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11800, DK: $10900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27.6)
The Pelicans are going to force feed Davis, especially if Tyreke Evans out. Davis played well in Game 1, finishing with 35 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 blocks. His rebounds should go up as the series progresses and he’ll likely see 20+ shot attempts again in Game 2. He draws a favorable matchup against the Warriors, who are ranked 22nd against power forwards this season. He is the top overall play on the board, but it’s going to be difficult taking him on a two-game slate without sacrificing the rest of your lineup.
Quincy Pondexter (FD: $4200, DK: $4800 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.9)
Pondexter had one of the best all-around games in his career in Game 1. He finished with 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 6 assists. Obviously, we can’t expect a repeat performance in Game 2, but he does offer good value at his price point. He should see around 30 minutes of playing time here, maybe more if Tyreke Evans is unable to suit up. At his price point, he’s one of the better value plays on the board.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $7500, DK: $7200 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
Eric Gordon (FD: $5100, DK: $5100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.7)
Norris Cole (FD: $3900, DK: $4400 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 18.1)
Golden State
The Warriors are an unstoppable force of nature on the offensive end of the floor. Now that they have tightened their rotation for the playoffs, watch out. They scored 106 points in the series opener, while shooting 45% from the floor and committing 15 turnovers. The Warriors are listed as 11-point favorites in Game 2 with their team total set at 108 points. The next closest team total is the Bulls at 98 points. The Warriors are obviously the best team to target on Monday night and as we saw on Saturday, it may not be a bad idea to roster 3-5 Warriors wherever possible.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $9900, DK: $10300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Curry has a ceiling that is very close to Anthony Davis, yet he is priced much cheaper across the industry. Curry only averaged 33 minutes per game during the season, but that number will likely climb to around 38-40 now that we are in the playoffs. He played well in Game 1, scoring 49 fantasy points in 40 minutes of action. He should be able to replicate that outing in Game 2.
Draymond Green (FD: $7500, DK: $7700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
While it doesn’t make a huge impact on fantasy production, David Lee has already been ruled out of Game 2, which should solidify Green’s minutes in the front-court. Green did tweak his ankle in the first game of the series, but he is expected to be fine and he should push for around 40 minutes again in Game 2. He played well on Saturday, finishing with 15 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 blocks and 3 steals. He is a stat-stuffing machine that is still a little underpriced now that his minutes are up.
Andrew Bogut (FD: $6000, DK: $6300 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 13.3)
Now is the time to buy low on Bogut. Now that the playoffs have started, his minutes are going to go from 24 per game to around 30 per game. That’s a 25% boost in expected production based on minutes alone. It also helps that the Warriors need him on the floor to match up with the huge front-court of the Pelicans. Bogut had a terrific outing in Game 1 of this series, finishing with 12 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals. His price is still too cheap for his expected production and with few other options at center tonight, he’s an easy plug for both cash games and tournaments.
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7100, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.3)
Harrison Barnes (FD: $4200, DK: $4700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.8)
Andre Iguodala (FD: $4200, DK: $3900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 13.6)