NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 1st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
San Antonio at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -11.5, 195 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Joseph-Green-Leonard-Diaw-Bonner
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Thompson-Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
| San Antonio | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -11.5 | Vegas Sprd | 11.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.25 | Team Proj. | 91.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.83 | Team Pace | 100.02 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Cory Joseph | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Boris Diaw | Matt Bonner | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Hollis Thompson | Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 27 | 30 | 16 | 19 | Opp. Season | 8 | 2 | 21 | 25 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 10 | 17 | 18 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 23 | 3 | |
San Antonio
Tony Parker and Tim Duncan have both been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Sixers. Cory Joseph will likely draw the start at PG, while it’s anyone’s guess who will draw the start at PF. The Spurs may decide to start Boris Diaw at PF and then start Matt Bonner at center. Either way, the entire team gets a major fantasy boost with Parker and Duncan out of the lineup. That’s a lot of production that will get picked up by their teammates, making the Spurs a terrific target for fantasy purposes. Tonight’s matchup against the Sixers only adds to it, as the Sixers are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. They are also ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency and 30th in rebounding differential.
Elite Plays
Cory Joseph (FD: $3700, DK: $3000 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
Tony Parker has been ruled out for tonight’s game, which means Joseph will likely draw the start at PG. This is a perfect matchup for a spot start too. The Sixers are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and are currently ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing PGs. Joseph is averaging 0.87 fantasy points per minute this season. If he plays 30+ minutes, he will easily reach and exceed value tonight.
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $7000, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Leonard is having another solid season for the Spurs. He is averaging 14 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals per game. The Spurs are running more offensive plays through Leonard this season and that number of plays will likely go up tonight with both Tony Parker and Tim Duncan out. Tonight’s game against the Spurs should be fast-paced and Leonard should make plenty of plays on both ends of the floor. He has a high floor and a high ceiling against the Sixers.
Danny Green (FD: $4700, DK: $5000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 15.7)
Green is typically too inconsistent to target in cash games, but with the matchup and the lack of other options, he’s certainly in play tonight. Green has scored at least 25 fantasy points in four of his last five games. He has also played at least 29 minutes in four of those five games. The Sixers are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to SGs. At his price point, he should be a popular play tonight.
Boris Diaw (FD: $4500, DK: $5000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
Considering the injuries and the matchup, I wouldn’t hesitate to use 4+ Spurs players tonight. With Tiago Splitter and Tim Duncan out, Diaw will continue to see extended playing time. He is averaging 28 minutes per game this season and may see 30+ tonight. Throw in a matchup against the win-less Sixers and you have yourself a terrific value play.
Secondary Plays
Manu Ginobili (FD: $5200, DK: $4900 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Ginobili likely won’t see a minutes boost with Tony Parker and Tim Duncan out, but he may see an increase in usage when he is out there on the floor. He draws a terrific matchup against the Sixers, who as mentioned above, have not fared well against SGs this season.
Philadelphia
The Sixers will look for their first win of the season tonight. Even with Tim Duncan and Tony Parker out, they are still listed as 11.5-point underdogs. Duncan and Parker being out does help their chances of keeping this game close though. The Sixers have been a very tough team to target in daily fantasy, because they have been inconsistent and they have been on the wrong side of too many blowouts. Fantasy-wise, this isn’t the best matchup, as the Spurs are ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency this season.
Injury Note: Tony Wroten has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Michael Carter-Williams sees the biggest boost with his absence.
Elite Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $8300, DK: $8000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 30.7)
Carter-Williams is an extremely talented young player. The biggest knock on him this season has been his playing time. That shouldn’t be an issue tonight as his back-court mate, Tony Wroten, has already been ruled out. Carter-Williams should see closer to 35 minutes of playing time tonight. He’ll also have a very high usage rate with Wroten out of the lineup. Carter-Williams put up a monster triple-double in Wroten’s absence the other night.
Secondary Plays
None
Miami at Washington
- Vegas Line – Washington -5, 189.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Wade-Deng-Williams-Bosh
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Humphries-Gortat
| Miami | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189.5 |  | Vegas Total | 189.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.25 | Team Proj. | 97.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.18 | Team Pace | 95.48 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Shawne Williams | Chris Bosh | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Kris Humphries | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 8 | 23 | 9 | 1 | Opp. Season | 12 | 30 | 15 | 1 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 1 | 26 | 28 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 25 | 30 | 1 | 23 | |
Miami
Dwayne Wade was back in the lineup for the Heat last night. He played well and the Heat picked up a good road win against the Knicks. There hasn’t been an update on Wade’s status for tonight’s game, but we have to assume that no news is good news. Wade will likely be in the starting lineup tonight, but we should know for sure by lineup lock as this game has a 7:00 PM ET tip-off. Fantasy-wise, this is a tough matchup for the Heat. The Wizards are ranked 5th in defensive efficiency this season, holding their opponents to only 96.7 points per game.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $8100, DK: $7200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 31.2)
Assuming Wade is in the lineup tonight, he makes an interesting play on DK. He is currently only listed at $7,200. Wade is averaging 36.8 fantasy points per game this season, which would be enough to reach value based on a 5x salary value system. Wade is a little too expensive on FD, but don’t hesitate to use him on DK tonight as long as he is in the lineup.
Washington
The Wizards have taken that next step that many were expecting heading into the season. They are 10-5 on the season, which is currently good enough for 2nd place in the Eastern Conference standings. Tonight they square off against the Heat, who should be at full-strength, assuming Dwyane Wade plays. The Heat play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA (92.1 possessions per 48 minutes), but they are ranked 18th in defensive efficiency. Nene Hilario is not expected to play tonight. If he is forced to sit, Kris Humphries would likely draw another start in his place.
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $8700, DK: $9900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 27)
Wall has been fantastic at home this season. In eight home games, he is averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, 10 assists, and 3 steals per game. Tonight he squares off against the Heat, who are ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing PGs. Wall should have another huge fantasy outing and should be considered one of the top overall plays on the board.
Secondary Plays
Bradley Beal (FD: $6700, DK: $5700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Beal has played awful in his last three games. He failed to score more than 21 fantasy points in each of those outings. He’s a much better player than that though and luckily for us, his price has come way down. Beal will likely average around 35 minutes per game moving forward and this could be a great time to buy low on the talented SG.
Kris Humphries (FD: $4100, DK: $4700 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Nene Hilario is doubtful for tonight’s game against the Heat. If he cannot suit up, Humphries would draw another start at PF. In his three starts this season, he has been somewhat of a disappointment. The good news is that his price has come down. If you are using a 5x salary value system, Humphries would only need to score 20.5 fantasy points on FD to reach value tonight.
Denver at Utah
- Vegas Line – Denver -3, 209 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Burks-Hayward-Kanter-Favors
| Denver | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.0 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.20 | Team Pace | 92.81 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Alec Burks | Gordon Hayward | Enes Kanter | Derrick Favors | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 2 | Opp. Season | 13 | 3 | 25 | 27 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 19 | 1 | 24 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 16 | 9 | 26 | 4 | |
Denver
The Nuggets travel to Utah to take on a very slow-paced Jazz team tonight. The Jazz are only averaging 92.8 possessions per 48 minutes this season. The good news is that the Jazz don’t play any defense. They are currently ranked 28th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.5 points per game to their opponents. This game features a total of 209 points, which is the 2nd highest total of the night.
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $8700, DK: $9100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
Lawson has been on a tear recently. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 16 points, 3 rebounds, 12 assists, and 2 steals per game. He has scored at least 38 fantasy points in five of those seven games. While the Jazz do play at a slow pace, they play little to no defense. It’s typically not a great idea to buy high on players in DFS, but Lawson’s hot streak should continue tonight against the Jazz.
Secondary Plays
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $5300, DK: $5700 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 17.4)
Mozgov got off to a slow start this season, but he is slowly becoming a viable fantasy option. Over his last seven games, he is averaging 13 points and 9 rebounds per game. During that stretch, he has scored at least 28 fantasy points four times. His matchup against the Jazz isn’t ideal, but he’s easily the best value play at center that’s available tonight.
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5700, DK: $5800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Arron Afflalo is also worth a mention considering the fact that there are so few options at SG tonight. Chandler has been a very consistent fantasy option this season. He has scored at least 21 fantasy points in each of his last ten games. Chandler is a good mid-range option at SF, which is a very thin position tonight.
Utah
The Jazz have lost five straight games and have fallen to 5-12 on the season. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pick up a win tonight against the Nuggets. The Jazz always play well at home, while the Nuggets don’t play very well on the road. In terms of the fantasy matchup, this is a good one. The Nuggets play at an extremely fast pace (99.2 possessions per 48 minutes) and are only ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency. The Jazz are projected to score 103 points tonight, which is 8 points higher than their season average.
Elite Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $7600, DK: $8100 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Hayward is having a terrific year. On the season, he is averaging 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. This is the type of game that Hayward should dominate as this should be a fast-paced affair against a below average defense. The Nuggets are currently ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to SFs. He should have another good all-around game tonight.
Secondary Plays
Derrick Favors (FD: $6900, DK: $7300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
Targeting big men against the Nuggets has been a profitable daily fantasy basketball strategy for years. The Nuggets do not defend the paint well. They are currently ranked 22nd against PFs and 19th against centers in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes.
Minnesota at L.A. Clippers
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -14, 216 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Brewer-Wiggins-Young-Dieng
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Minnesota | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 216.0 |  | Vegas Total | 216.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 14.0 | Vegas Sprd | -14.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.0 | Team Proj. | 115.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.70 | Team Pace | 95.44 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Corey Brewer | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 23 | Opp. Season | 4 | 28 | 29 | 23 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 30 | 15 | 19 | 6 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves have been an injury-plagued team all season. They are currently without two of their top players in Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic. It sounds like we may want to keep an eye on Andrew Wiggins’ status for tonight. He is dealing with an illness and only logged 4 second-half minutes last night against the Blazers. If he is forced to sit, Shabazz Muhammad would likely draw the start in his place. Tonight the Wolves head to L.A. to take on the Clippers in the second half of a back-to-back. The Wolves are 14-point underdogs tonight in a game that could very well turn into a blowout.
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $5500, DK: $5300 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 21.5)
Williams is playing some of the best basketball of his career. Granted, he’s the starting point guard of a bad team, but it’s tough to argue with the numbers that he is putting up. In five starts this season, Williams is averaging 17 points, 3 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. He does draw a tough matchup against the Clippers, but you will be hard-pressed to find a starting point guard with his upside at his price point.
Corey Brewer (FD: $4900, DK: $5800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 19.9)
There are few “must plays” in the NBA, but Brewer is close to reaching that status. He is still vastly underpriced, despite scoring at least 22 fantasy points in each of his last nine games. His floor has basically been reaching value if you are using a 5x salary value system. With Andrew Wiggins battling an illness, Brewer should continue to see all of the minutes he can handle. Continue targeting him tonight against the Clippers.
Secondary Plays
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6000, DK: $6700 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 14)
Dieng has been extremely consistent since Nikola Pekovic went down with his injury. Pekovic is going to be out another 10-14 days, which means Dieng will continue to see extended playing time. Over his last six starts, he is averaging 28.4 fantasy points (FD scoring). Tonight he faces DeAndre Jordan and the Clippers, who are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed per 48 minutes to opposing centers.
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are playing their third game in four nights. While I expect the starters to play their usual minutes if this one stays close, I fully expect Doc Rivers to rest his superstars if the Clippers get up big. For that reason, both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul have a little added risk attached to their names tonight. Fantasy-wise, this is a terrific matchup. The Wolves play at a very fast pace (98.7 possessions per 48 minutes) and are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency. The Clippers should score a ton of points tonight, but a lot of that could come from their role players, as this game could easily turn into a blowout.
Elite Plays
Jamal Crawford (FD: $6100, DK: $5600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 27.8)
Crawford is not a starter, but he sees starter-type minutes. He’s averaging just less than 30 minutes per game, with a high usage rate of 27.8. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against the Wolves, who are currently ranked 29th in defensive efficiency this season. The best part about Crawford is that his minutes don’t depend on the outcome of the game. He should see around 30 minutes even if this one turns into a blowout.
Secondary Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $9100, DK: $9800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 31.6)
After a stretch of subpar fantasy outings, Griffin has bounced back nicely over his last four. He is averaging 24 points, 10 rebounds, and 5 assists during that stretch. He has the highest usage rate (31.6) of anyone on the Clippers, including Chris Paul. The only knock that I have on him tonight is that he is playing his third game in four nights. Rivers may decide to sit him down early if the Clippers are well ahead.