NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 29th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Chicago at Indiana
- Vegas Line – Chicago -5.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Chicago | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 94.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.89 | Team Pace | 95.21 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | George Hill | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 25 | Opp. Season | 25 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 3 | 17 | 29 | 14 | |
Chicago
The Bulls enter tonight’s game at Indiana riding an Eastern Conference best six game winning streak. Kirk Hinrich has been nursing a sore hamstring, which has led to Aaron Brooks re-emergence as a value play this past week. However, the front court is now healthy, diminishing the value that Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic, Joakim Noah — and even Paul Gasol to an extent — had seen at earlier points in the season.
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler — Butler leads the league in minutes at 39.6 per game. Even in blowouts he usually plays well over 30 minutes. That combined with his role in the offense establishes a high floor night in and night out regardless of the matchup.
Secondary Plays
None
Indiana
The Pacers are doing their best to survive this season, but it seems like as soon as one guy returns from injury, they lose another. Right now Damjan Rudez and C.J. Miles are battling upper respiratory infections while Rodney Stuckey is playing through an eye injury. The return of George Hill has been a boost, but he should stay on a minutes-limit for a little while longer.
Elite Plays
David West — West is priced at $6,300 on DraftKings and hasn’t dropped below 26 DK points in nearly three weeks. His price never seems to change, but he’s always right around what you need out of him for cash games.
Secondary Plays
Solomon Hill — Against Brooklyn in the Pacers’ last game, Hill got into some early foul trouble and only ended up playing 21 minutes. He’ll be back to 30+ minutes tonight again if Miles is unable to play and gets the great matchup against Mike Dunleavy.
Milwaukee at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -3.5, 196 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Marshall-Knight-Antetokounmpo-O’Bryant-Pachulia
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
| Milwaukee | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.3 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.52 | Team Pace | 94.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kendall Marshall | Brandon Knight | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Johnny O’Bryant | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 18 | Opp. Season | 17 | 15 | 26 | 5 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 25 | 13 | 5 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 21 | |
Milwaukee
Both Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova are already ruled out for tonight’s game at Charlotte. Zaza Pachulia has filled in nicely the last two games (both against Atlanta) and John Henson has done well with his limited minutes since returning last Friday also. The bench, led by Jared Dudley, has been outplaying the starters, so it will be interesting to see if there is a lineup shakeup. Johnny O’Bryant has been under-performing more than anyone on the team and would be a candidate to be benched.
Elite Plays
Brandon Knight — Kemba Walker is having a hard time defending opposing point guards right now. Elfrid Payton had probably the best game of his career against Kemba on Saturday, and Knight put up 34 actual points a couple games before that. Knight loves the matchup and is averaging 50 DK points per game in their two meetings already, so for $7,000 just lock him in.
Secondary Plays
Jared Dudley — It feels weird recommending Dudley for cash games, but if you look at what he’s doing it makes sense. He’s still getting starter’s minutes, but by coming off the bench he is able to get up more shots. He is averaging nearly two steals per game through his last seven and is doing a little bit of everything.
Zaza Pachulia — This will likely be the most popular value play of the day. You’ll be very confident in the selection if you just look at his previous two games. Anyone very experienced with rostering Pachulia though knows that he’s just as likely to go 1-6 from the field with three rebounds even with the minutes that he’s getting. I like him better for tournaments, you can’t deny the value there at this price. In cash games I’ll probably have less of him than most, especially on FanDuel where you can only roster one center.
Charlotte
Lance Stephenson will not play tonight and Al Jefferson has been playing through a groin strain. This led to Kemba Walker shouldering the load on Saturday en route to a career-high 42 points. This has been a good team to turn to for value plays and tonight will be no exception. Milwaukee does well against power forwards, but is average to below-average against the other four positions.
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker — I mentioned in the previous section how much Brandon Knight loves this matchup, but Walker has had nearly as much success averaging 42.1 DK points per game against Knight. With Jefferson still ailing, Walker will need to continue to be more aggressive, and the 31 shots that he took against Orlando is evident of that.
Secondary Plays
Marvin Williams — Sub $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, this is a bargain basement value play. Like Walker, Williams has done very well against the Bucks this year averaging over 31 DK points.
Orlando at Miami
- Vegas Line – Miami -2, 204.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-O’Quinn-Vucevic
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-Deng-Williams-Bosh
| Orlando | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.3 | Team Proj. | 103.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.71 | Team Pace | 91.74 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Kyle O’Quinn | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Mario Chalmers | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Shawne Williams | Chris Bosh | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 28 | Opp. Season | 28 | 8 | 21 | 13 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 14 | 27 | 10 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 9 | 26 | 9 | 28 | |
Orlando
Orlando is scoring fewer points per game (93.9) than every team except Philadelphia (90.8) so far this year. They are ranked 23rd in pace of play and make the short trip to Miami to face the team that is dead last in pace of play. I highly recommend limiting your exposure to players in this game, but especially on the Orlando side of things.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Nikola Vucevic — 33 points and 17 rebounds against Miami last time they played. Vucevic is one of the best rebounders in the league and Miami is the worst at rebounding efficiency. They are ranked 28th against centers.
Tobias Harris — This could be a trap because I don’t like the matchup or pace, but when you factor in Harris’ price on FanDuel, the position scarcity, and the requirement of rostering two small forwards, he does make for a fine option. He’s not a guy that you want to target, rather you slot him in where remaining cap room dictates.
Miami
It seems like there is a good chance that Chris Bosh plays tonight, and if he does it will make most of the recently popular Heat players harder to play in cash games. The minutes for guys like Chris Anderson and Shawne Williams would be in question, while the usage rates of Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng would go down.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Dwyane Wade — If Bosh is out, Wade remains a great option. His usage rate is above James Harden’s and trails only those of Russell Westbrook and Kobe Bryant. Even with Tony Allen guarding him on Saturday, Wade managed his second 51.25 point night in a row on DraftKings.
Chris Anderson — Anderson is $4,200 on FanDuel and needs about 21 points to reach value. In his last seven games he’s averaging close to that and hasn’t fallen below 17 points once.
Sacramento at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -2, 204 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Karasev-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
| Sacramento | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.0 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.43 | Team Pace | 94.63 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Sergey Karasev | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 16 | 20 | 24 | 7 | Opp. Season | 21 | 24 | 7 | 28 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 27 | |
Sacramento
The Kings have been very bad since the firing of Mike Malone, only beating the Lakers and the Knicks (in overtime) since. They are giving up over 114 points per game under Ty Corbin as they attempt to meet the owner’s demands of a fast-paced offense despite lacking the personnel for it. DeMarcus Cousins has been the bright spot in the Kings’ season and has emerged as arguably the league’s best center.
Elite Plays
Darren Collison — Collison is the player that benefits the most by the change to a running system and we’re starting to see it in the numbers. In his last five games he is shooting 56.7% from the field and he managed to dish out ten assists last game when he hadn’t recorded more than seven in over a month. Brooklyn has been very bad at defending point guards, most of that data coming from when Deron Williams was in the starting lineup. Jarrett Jack actually rates out even worse though with a 107.4 defensive rating compared to Williams’ 104.1.
DeMarcus Cousins — If you’re looking to spend up on one player today, it should be Cousins. He touches the ball on offense more than any big man in the league and is fourth overall in usage percentage. The other high-priced options all have warts: Harden is still adjusting with Josh Smith, John Wall is being guarded by Patrick Beverley, and Chris Paul/Blake Griffin are at the highest risk of sitting in a blowout.
Secondary Plays
None
Brooklyn
The returns of Deron Williams and Brook Lopez have been disappointing to say the least. Both are playing limited minutes off the bench while Jarrett Jack and Mason Plumlee completely outperform them on the court. Their roles are expected to continue this way for the time being as the Nets hope to find trade partners within the coming weeks.
Elite Plays
Jarrett Jack — You have to play Jack at this price for as long as he’s starting. 29+ FD points every game since taking over with a high of 46.9. His floor is more than the 5x multiple that we hope for.
Mason Plumlee — He’s out of play on DraftKings at $8,000 now, but for $6,900 on FanDuel there’s still a good chance that he will pay off. Brook Lopez isn’t play more than 15 minutes right now, so don’t let that scare you away unless the Nets decide to put him back in the starting lineup.
Secondary Plays
None
Washington at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -4.5, 196 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| Washington | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.8 | Team Proj. | 100.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.76 | Team Pace | 97.36 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 11 | Opp. Season | 5 | 1 | 24 | 2 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 30 | 12 | 3 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 19 | |
Washington
The Wizards are one of the healthier teams in the NBA right now. They are only missing Martell Webster, but he could return at some point this week. They are playing up in pace tonight against the Rockets with their best player (John Wall) facing the toughest matchup (Patrick Beverley). Expect other players to be relied on more than usual.
Elite Plays
Bradley Beal — Beal is one of my favorite plays today. I don’t think Patrick Beverley will completely shut down John Wall, but I do think he will have enough of an impact to where Wall will need some help. Beal gets the best matchup for the Wizards and is shooting 50% from three point range in his last four games. Get shooters in your lineup when they start to heat up.
Secondary Plays
Paul Pierce — He nearly reached value in the first quarter against his old team last game. Pierce only ended up playing 19 minutes in what ended up being a blowout, but for an old veteran, that extra rest will pay off for him today.
Houston
With Houston hosting the Wizards tonight, we get to see two of the top four teams in defensive efficiency face off. The matchup is particularly tough for Houston since they are the team playing down in pace, and for fantasy purposes Washington ranks in the top ten against every position except small forwards. Both teams are also very good at rebounding, with the Rockets getting the slight edge there.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Josh Smith — Smith disappointed in his first start for the Rockets last night with foul trouble limiting him to just 26 minutes. I think he goes back to producing more like he did against Memphis here in this game and gets up around 14 shots. He is priced at $7,300 on DraftKings which is extremely fair for a player with his upside.