NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 12th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
New Orleans at Boston
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -4.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Crowder-Sullinger-Zeller
| New Orleans | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.0 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.92 | Team Pace | 99.76 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Jared Sullinger | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 22 | Opp. Season | 20 | 14 | 21 | 9 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 24 | 5 | 28 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 15 | 16 | 3 | 28 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans head to Boston to take on the Celtics in what should be a fast-paced game. This is a fantasy-friendly matchup for the Pelicans. Not only are the Celtics one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA, but they have also allowed an average of 103.9 points per game to their opponents. It will be interesting to see if the Pelicans decide to bring Tyreke Evans off the bench again tonight. If that’s the case, give a small boost to Dante Cunningham, who drew the start at small forward the other night.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 12-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $10900, DK: $11000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.9)
Davis is the top overall fantasy option at any position tonight. We all know the type of numbers that he can put up, but in case you forgot, he is averaging 24 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, and 3 blocks per game this season. Tonight he draws a terrific matchup against the Celtics, who have allowed more fantasy points to power forwards than any other team in the NBA. They are also a bad rebounding team, ranking 23rd in rebounding differential. Davis should be able to dominate the paint en route to another monster fantasy outing.
Secondary Plays
Jrue Holiday (FD: $8000, DK: $7700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
Holiday comes into this game playing some of his best basketball of the season. Over his last eight games, he is averaging 16 points, 4 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 steals per game. He would also see a slight boost if Tyreke Evans comes off the bench. Evans is a ball-dominant guard when on the floor. If he starts on the bench, it would allow Holiday to be the primary ball-handler in the offense.
Ryan Anderson (FD: $5600, DK: $5400 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Sticking with the theme of targeting power forwards against the Celtics, Anderson is also in play tonight. While Anderson does come off the bench, he sees close to starter’s minutes. Over his last eight games, Anderson is averaging 29 minutes and 25 fantasy points per game. His price is affordable across the industry and you can’t argue with the matchup, as the Celtics are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to power forwards this season.
Eric Gordon (FD: $4700, DK: $4500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.3)
Gordon is an injury risk every time he takes the floor, but he still deserves some consideration on a night with a short slate. He has put up respectable outings in his first three games back from injury and his price is at an all-time low. He only needs to score around 22 fantasy points to reach value tonight, a feat that he can certainly accomplish against the Celtics.
Boston
The Celtics have lost eight of their last ten games and are listed as 4.5-point underdogs tonight at home against the Pelicans. While this may be a pace-down game for the Celtics, it’s still a favorable matchup. The Pelicans are ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency this season, allowing an average of 100.8 points per game. The Jeff Green trade has officially gone through. The Celtics brought back Tayshaun Prince and Austin Rivers, although both may end up getting traded again.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 18-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Avery Bradley (FD: $5500, DK: $4600 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
The Jeff Green trade has opened up minutes for Bradley. After averaging close to 30 minutes per game this season, he has played 37 minutes per game in the two without Green in the lineup. Bradley’s fantasy production is dependent on scoring (which is a bit strange from a player known for his defense), but he’s cheap enough to warrant consideration in both cash games and tournaments.
Jae Crowder (FD: $3900, DK: $4100 / MPG: 13 / Usage Rate: 16.5)
Crowder has made the most of his opportunity with the Celtics. He has started the last two games and has played fairly well, averaging 21 fantasy points per game. He is still close to minimum salary on most sites across the industry and he offers some much needed salary cap relief at small forward (although he’s listed as a power forward on DraftKings). He should see around 25 minutes of action against a Pelicans team that does not defend the small forward position well.
Secondary Plays
Evan Turner (FD: $6000, DK: $5200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Turner is a little too inconsistent to use in cash games, but he does offer great upside as a tournament play. He has scored at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last seven games. He will draw another start at point guard tonight, but Marcus Smart will likely eat into his minutes. Turner is a high-risk, high-reward fantasy option tonight against the Pelicans.
Houston at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Houston -6.5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Bogdanovic-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
| Houston | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 93.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.77 | Team Pace | 94.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Bojan Bogdanovic | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 12 | 22 | 20 | 13 | Opp. Season | 3 | 11 | 24 | 15 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 5 | |
Houston
The Rockets head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets. This game has a relatively low total of 193.5 points, but the Rockets are 6.5-point favorites. Vegas has their team total set at 100 points, which is just under their season average of 101.5 points per game. The Nets have been decent defensively this season, but this isn’t a matchup that we need to avoid by any means. The usual suspects are in play for the Rockets tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 16-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10700, DK: $10500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.7)
With all of the value at the other positions, it may not be a bad idea to spend up on Harden tonight. He’s easily the top shooting guard in this small slate of games and he remains the number one option in the Rockets’ offense. His price has come down below the $11,000 mark on FanDuel and DraftKings, which makes him an attractive play tonight against the Nets. As a team, the Nets have been stingy against shooting guards this season, but it’s hard to envision Bojan Bogdanovic or Joe Johnson slowing him down.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5600, DK: $5600 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 17.4)
It looks like a night to take the value route at small forward. Ariza’s price is at a season-low of only $5,600 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Given this price point, he only needs 28 fantasy points to reach value. Ariza is certainly capable of that tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season. Ariza may not have a high usage rate, but he averages 37 minutes per game and he can fill up the stat sheet.
Secondary Plays
Patrick Beverley (FD: $5600, DK: $5100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.8)
Beverley’s minutes have taken a hit over the last couple of weeks, which is why he is listed as a secondary play tonight. He has hasn’t played more than 31 minutes in any of his last eight games. That said, he still offers good value at point guard if you are looking for some salary cap relief. The Nets have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Brooklyn
The Nets draw an extremely tough matchup tonight against the Rockets. Not only are the Rockets ranked second in defensive efficiency, but they are also one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. The Nets are only projected to score 93.5 points tonight, which is considerably lower than their season average. Even on a short slate, I recommend treading lightly with the Nets tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 26-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson (FD: $6700, DK: $6400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
The one position that the Rockets have struggled to defend this season is small forwards. While Johnson is listed as a shooting guard, he typically starts at small forward. A matchup against Trevor Ariza still isn’t ideal, but Johnson has been playing well recently. He also sees a small fantasy boost with Deron Williams out, as he is asked to shoulder the load offensively.
Jarrett Jack (FD: $6600, DK: $6600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
With Deron Williams out, Jack will continue to see all of the minutes that he can handle at point guard. The one thing holding him back from being an elite play tonight is his court-date with Patrick Beverley. Beverley is an elite on-ball defender that will make things tough on Jack. He still deserves consideration though, given his increased role with Deron Williams out.
Detroit at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -6, 208 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Ross-J. Johnson-A. Johnson-Valanciunas
| Detroit | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.0 | Team Proj. | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.75 | Team Pace | 96.01 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Terrence Ross | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 8 | Opp. Season | 9 | 18 | 6 | 28 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 20 | 6 | 18 | 19 | |
Detroit
The Pistons have won eight of their last ten games and are quickly climbing up the Eastern Conference standings. They have a tough test ahead of them tonight, but Vegas has them listed as only 6-point underdogs against the Raptors. This is a favorable matchup, as the Raptors are a fast-paced team that is below average defensively. This game has the highest total of the night and the Pistons are projected to score 101 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 25-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Andre Drummond (FD: $8600, DK: $9100 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 21)
Drummond has come back down to Earth over his last couple of games, but he was dealing with an illness, so we will give him a pass. He is in a prime position to bounce back tonight against the Raptors, who are not the best rebounding team. They are ranked 17th in rebounding differential and Jonas Valanciunas will have a hard time keeping him off the glass. Drummond has shown that he has 50 fantasy point type of upside and his price point is reasonable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $8200, DK: $8100 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Monroe has forced Stan Van Gundy to play him big minutes. Over his last four games, he is averaging 19 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He is averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minutes this season. Now that his minutes are up in the mid-thirties, he may average 35+ fantasy points per game the rest of the way. The Raptors are tough against power forwards, but Monroe is still in play at power forward.
Brandon Jennings (FD: $7500, DK: $7900 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Last season, I told myself that I would never use Jennings in a cash game ever again. He has too many terrible fantasy outings, especially in favorable matchups. I have managed to avoid him in cash games this season and will not be swayed by his recent level of production. He has only played more than 30 minutes one time in his last seven games. If I’m paying this much for a player, I want him a guarantee that he will see big minutes. That said, I do like Jennings as a tournament play tonight.
Toronto
The Raptors host the red-hot Pistons tonight. The Pistons have improved their play on the defensive end of the floor recently, but Vegas still has the Raptors projected to score 107 points tonight. On the season, the Pistons are ranked 17th in defensive efficiency, giving up 99.5 points per game to their opponents.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 13-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Kyle Lowry (FD: $9700, DK: $10300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
DeMar DeRozan is still not ready for his return to the court, which means Lowry will continue to carry the load offensively for the Raptors. Not only does Lowry have terrific upside, but he also provides a high floor. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in each of his last nine games. While the Pistons have been stingy against point guards this season, a matchup against Brandon Jennings does not scare me in the slightest. Lowry is the elite play at the point guard position tonight and should be targeted in all league formats.
Lou Williams (FD: $5400, DK: $4700 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 26.3)
Willliams comes off the bench, but sees consistent minutes that resemble that of a starter. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 29 minutes and 24 fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he scored at least 22 fantasy points eight times. Williams has a high usage rate (26.3) in this offense and he draws a favorable matchup against the Pistons, who are ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
James Johnson (FD: $4900, DK: $4600 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 16.1)
Johnson was inserted back into the starting lineup the other night and he responded well with 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists against the Celtics. He still has some risk attached to him, but given the lack of other options at the position, he’s in play tonight for both cash games and tournaments. Assuming he stays in the starting lineup, he will match up against Kyle Singler, who has never been known as an elite defender.
Orlando at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -11, 190 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Marble-Frye-Vucevic
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Hinrich-Butler-Gasol-Noah
| Orlando | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190 |  | Vegas Total | 190 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.5 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.00 | Team Pace | 95.96 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Devyn Marble | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 4 | 25 | 13 | 29 | Opp. Season | 28 | 7 | 18 | 22 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 28 | 11 | 25 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 7 | |
Orlando
The Magic are going to be without Tobias Harris and Evan Fournier tonight. That leaves them without two of their best scorers against a good defensive team in the Bulls. Vegas has the Magic listed as 11-point underdogs in this one with the total set at only 190 points. Their team total is only set at 89.5 points, which makes me hesitant to target many Magic players tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 26-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8900, DK: $8500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
With Tobias Harris and Evan Fournier out, Vucevic may have to carry the load offensively. He was up for the task the other night against the Blazers, scoring 34 points and grabbing 16 rebounds. He draws a fantasy-friendly matchup tonight against the Bulls, who have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6600, DK: $6300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Oladipo should see an uptick in both minutes and usage tonight with Tobias Harris and Evan Fournier out. He’ll likely play all of the minutes that he can handle, especially if the Magic are able to keep this game close. He would typically be an elite play in this spot, but a matchup against Jimmy Butler takes him down a peg. Butler is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA.
Chicago
Derrick Rose is expected to be back in the lineup tonight, but the Bulls will still be without Mike Dunleavy. Kirk Hinrich will likely draw another start in his absence. The Bulls draw a fantasy-friendly matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 20th in defensive efficiency and 26th in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 13-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $9000, DK: $8800 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Jimmy minutes is in play tonight if you don’t want to spend up on James Harden at shooting guard. Butler is much cheaper and offers similar upside. He doesn’t have as high of a ceiling, but he may have the better matchup of the two. The combination of Victor Oladipo, Devyn Marble, and Maurice Harkless will have a tough time defending the versatile Butler.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9400, DK: $9700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
Gasol is coming off of a monster game against the Bucks. He scored a season-high 46 points and added 16 rebounds and 3 assists. His matchup against the Magic is a favorable one, as they have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to power forwards this season. Gasol is definitely worth a look tonight, but if I’m paying up for a power forward, I would rather pay up for Anthony Davis.