NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-01-28 06:54:24

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

Portland at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM EST – GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED

Sacramento at New York – 7:30 PM EST – GAME HAS BEEN POSTPONED

Philadelphia at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST

• Vegas Line – New Orleans -14, 190 Over/Under
• Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Drew II-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
• New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik

Philadelphia							New Orleans
			Vegas Total		190					Vegas Total		190
			Vegas Sprd		14.0					Vegas Sprd		-14.0
			Team Proj.		88.0					Team Proj.		102.0
			Team Pace		98.47					Team Pace		94.36
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Proj Starter	Larry Drew II	Robert Covington	Luc Mbah a Moute	Nerlens Noel	Henry Sims		Proj Starter	Tyreke Evans	Eric Gordon	Dante Cunningham	Anthony Davis	Omer Asik
Opp. Season	18	16	17	9	16		Opp. Season	24	30	28	30	30
Opp. Last 7	5	14	15	5	16		Opp. Last 7	18	19	27	19	19

With two games postponed, tonight’s seven-game slate turns into a five-game slate. This has the makeup of a rather strange evening in the NBA, as every single game has the potential to turn into a blowout. All five games feature a spread of at least 7.5 points. Since every game has blowout potential, we will not factor that into today’s analysis.

Philadelphia

The Sixers head to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans tonight and will be without their two primary ball-handlers in Michael Carter-Williams and Tony Wroten. Larry Drew II will draw the start at point guard and figures to be one of the top value plays on the board. The Sixers draw a fantasy-friendly matchup against a Pelicans’ team that has allowed their opponents to score an average of 99.7 points per game this season. With Carter-Williams out, it may not be a bad idea to target a few Sixers tonight, as there is a ton of production to be made up in his absence.

Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 23-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7

Elite Plays

Larry Drew II (FD: $3500, DK: $3400 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 18.1)

Dante Exum was looking like the value play of the day until Michael Carter-Williams was ruled out. That honor now belongs to Larry Drew II, who will be making the first start of his career. Drew is also vying for a contract for the rest of the season, so he has a lot to prove in this outing. The sample size on Drew is still small, but he should play all of the minutes he can handle tonight in a favorable matchup against the Pelicans. At his price point, he should reach value expectations with ease.

Secondary Plays

Robert Covington (FD: $5500, DK: $5100 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 20.2)

With Carter-Williams out, there are going to be plenty of shot attempts to go around. Covington is a 3-point specialist, but we have seen him post a few monster fantasy outings this season. The Sixers may have to lean on him offensively and he should continue to play all of the minutes that he can handle. His price has come down a bit too, making him an even more appealing option tonight.

Nerlens Noel (FD: $5800, DK: $5000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 16.3)

Noel is playing his best basketball of the season. Over his last six games, he has averaged 30 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action per game. Tonight’s matchup against Anthony Davis isn’t ideal, but the Sixers should lean heavily on him against the huge frontcourt of the Pelicans. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he could push for 35+ minutes tonight.

Henry Sims (FD: $4000, DK: $4200 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 20.4)

The Sixers are going with their big starting lineup tonight in order to match up with the huge frontcourt of the Pelicans. That means Sims will start at center. As a starter this season, he is averaging close to 20 fantasy points per game.

New Orleans

The Pelicans have a great chance to win their fourth game in a row tonight, as they host the reeling Sixers. Vegas has the Pelicans listed as 14-point favorites. The Sixers are a team that is very generous when it comes to allowing fantasy points to their opponents. On the season, they have allowed their opponents to score an average of 102.4 points per game. They are also ranked 24th or worse against all five positions on the floor.

Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 8-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30

Elite Plays

Tyreke Evans (FD: $7500, DK: $8200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.3)

Jrue Holiday is out for the next couple of weeks, which means Evans will continue to start at point guard. He has a very high usage rate (26.3) in the Pelicans’ offense and is now their primary ball-handler. Tonight he draws a dream matchup against the Sixers, who do not defend any position particularly well. Evans is easily the top play at shooting guard tonight on FanDuel at a price of only $7,500. He’s also in play on DraftKings, but he’s a little more expensive at $8,200.

Eric Gordon (FD: $5500, DK: $5700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 18.2)

Gordon has seen an uptick in production with Jrue Hoiday out of the lineup. Over his last six games, he has averaged 16 points, 3 rebounds and 6 assists per game. His price across the industry has yet to reflect his recent level of production, which makes him an appealing option tonight at shooting guard. He draws a terrific matchup against the Sixers, who have allowed more fantasy points to shooting guards than any other team in the NBA this season.

Secondary Plays

Anthony Davis (FD: $11000, DK: $11000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.5)

Davis is a borderline elite play tonight against the Sixers. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in five of his last seven games and has a premier matchup against the Sixers. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked dead last in both fantasy points allowed to power forwards. They are also ranked dead last in rebounding differential.

Minnesota at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM EST

• Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -17, 207.5 Over/Under
• Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Wiggins-Young-Dieng-Pekovic
• Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams

Minnesota							Oklahoma City
			Vegas Total		207.5					Vegas Total		207.5
			Vegas Sprd		17.0					Vegas Sprd		-17.0
			Team Proj.		95.3					Team Proj.		112.3
			Team Pace		97.80					Team Pace		97.15
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Proj Starter	Mo Williams	Andrew Wiggins	Robbie Hummel	Thaddeus Young	Gorgui Dieng		Proj Starter	Russell Westbrook	Andre Roberson	Kevin Durant	Serge Ibaka	Steven Adams
Opp. Season	27	10	10	18	4		Opp. Season	29	24	30	26	28
Opp. Last 7	26	2	3	13	8		Opp. Last 7	17	23	21	21	1

Minnesota

The Wolves rolled out an interesting starting lineup yesterday against the Hawks. They started Thaddeus Young at small forward in order to make room for Nikola Pekovic at center. Tonight they Wolves head to Oklahoma City to take on a Thunder team that just can’t seem to get over the hump. The Wolves are 17-point underdogs in this game, but it is expected to be played at a very brisk pace. Even in a blowout, I expect the starters to see close to their usual complement of minutes.

Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 22-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2

Elite Plays

Andrew Wiggins (FD: $7100, DK: $6800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.1)

Wiggins is going to see close to 40 minutes of playing time tonight, regardless of the outcome of the game. That can’t really be said about anyone else in the NBA. The Wolves are giving him every opportunity to develop as a player. His guaranteed playing time and high usage in the Wolves’ offense makes him a low-risk, high-reward fantasy option tonight against the Thunder. It also helps that he will start at shooting guard, which means he won’t have to defend Kevin Durant (at least to start the game).

Secondary Plays

Mo Williams (FD: $5800, DK: $6000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 23.1)

Ricky Rubio is still not ready to make his return to the court, which means Wililams will draw another start at point guard. He has played well as a starter this season, averaging 17 points, 3 rebounds and 8 assists per game. Basically, he is averaging well over 30 fantasy points per game as a starter, which is what he needs to meet his value expectations at his price point.

Nikola Pekovic (FD: $6300, DK: $4600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 21.7)

Pekovic is a DraftKings’ special tonight. He played 36 minutes last night against the Hawks and should be in the starting lineup again tonight. He’s listed at a bargain price of only $4,600 on DraftKings, which sets his value expectation at around 23 fantasy points. He’s certainly capable of that feat, and most gamers will overlook him tonight.

Oklahoma City

The Thunder are the largest favorites on the board tonight. They are favored by 17 points in a game that features a total of 207.5 points. Using a very complicated math formula, that sets their team total at 112 points tonight. While I am a little concerned about the potential blowout mixed in with the second half of a back-to-back, the Thunder need to get back on track with a win tonight. They certainly have the matchup to do so, as the Wolves are ranked 30th in defensive efficiency this season.

Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 7-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25

Elite Plays

Kevin Durant (FD: $10600, DK: $10700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 29.3)

Durant and Westbrook have a similar ceiling, but Durant has a higher floor, making him the better play of the two in cash games. Durant also plays at small forward, which is a much tougher position to fill in daily fantasy basketball. He has now scored at least 46 fantasy points in six of his last eight games and he draws a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Timberwolves, who have allowed more fantasy points to small forwards than any other team in the NBA this season.

Secondary Plays

Russell Westbrook (FD: $10700, DK: $10300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 36.4)

Westbrook is better suited as a tournament play tonight. Not only has he been a boom or bust fantasy option recently, but it’s a night where you can save cap space at point guard. Dante Exum and Larry Drew II are both close to min-salary and both will start for their respective teams. Westbrook does have tremendous upside though, which makes him a good target in tournaments.

Serge Ibaka (FD: $6700, DK: $6700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.7)

Ibaka has my favorite combination in daily fantasy sports. His price is depressed and he draws a favorable matchup against the Wolves. On the season, the Wolves are ranked 26th against power forwards and 25th in rebounding differential. He will not be a popular pick at power forward tonight, but is worth a look if you want to differentiate your lineups.

Orlando at Memphis – 8:00 PM EST

• Vegas Line – Memphis -11.5, 210 Over/Under
• Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Gordon-Frye-Vucevic
• Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol

Orlando							Memphis
			Vegas Total		210					Vegas Total		210
			Vegas Sprd		11.5					Vegas Sprd		-11.5
			Team Proj.		99.3					Team Proj.		110.8
			Team Pace		96.18					Team Pace		94.21
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Proj Starter	Elfrid Payton	Victor Oladipo	Aaron Gordon	Channing Frye	Nikola Vucevic		Proj Starter	Mike Conley	Courtney Lee	Jeff Green	Zach Randolph	Marc Gasol
Opp. Season	2	18	18	6	1		Opp. Season	28	3	29	25	29
Opp. Last 7	8	9	9	9	11		Opp. Last 7	30	15	30	29	30

Orlando

The Magic have turned into one of the fastest-paced teams in the league recently, which is why the total for this game is set at 210 points. While their quick pace is great news for the fantasy appeal of the Grizzlies, this will still be a pace-down game for the Magic. The Grizzlies average only 94 possessions per 48 minutes and have held their opponents to an average of only 97.4 points per game this season. It will be tempting to roster the red-hot Nikola Vucevic, but this is not the matchup to pay a premium for a player. The Grizzlies are ranked #1 in fantasy points allowed to centers this season.

Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 31-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Victor Oladipo (FD: $7100, DK: $6800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.3)

Oladipo is the only Magic player that is on my radar tonight. The Grizzlies haven’t been that stingy against shooting guards this season, allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to the position. Oladipo has been playing some great basketball recently, averaging 33 fantasy points per game over his last six, including a 29 fantasy point outing against the Grizzlies a week ago.

Memphis

The Grizzlies find themselves in a terrific matchup at home against the Magic. The Magic have allowed their opponents to score an average of 117 points per game over their last seven outings. The Grizzlies are projected to score 111 points tonight, which is 10 points higher than their season average. If the Magic can keep this game close, the Grizzlies will be a fantasy gold mine tonight. All five starters are in play tonight. If Tony Allen (questionable) is ruled out, give a small fantasy boost to Courtney Lee and Jeff Green.

Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 15-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29

Elite Plays

Marc Gasol (FD: $8600, DK: $8400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.1)

DeAndre Jordan is a fine fantasy option tonight against the Nuggets, but I have Gasol ranked as my top play at the position. He draws an elite matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 29th against centers and 29th in rebounding differential this season. Not only that, but Gasol has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He should be able to dominate the paint and post a monster fantasy outing tonight.

Mike Conley (FD: $7300, DK: $7100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.8)

Don’t sleep on Mike Conley tonight. The masses will likely be drawn to the value of Dante Exum and Larry Drew II (rightfully so). They will also be drawn to Chris Paul in a matchup against the Nuggets. Conley should fly under the radar in an extremely favorable matchup against the Magic. As mentioned above, the Grizzlies are projected to score 111 points tonight. Conley is affordable and offers great upside at his price point.

Secondary Plays

Zach Randolph (FD: $8500, DK: $8100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.8)

Randolph has turned back the clock. He has been dominant since returning from injury, averaging 40 fantasy points per game over his last seven. His price has come up, but he’s still worth a look tonight against Channing Frye and the Magic, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.

Boston at Utah – 9:00 PM EST

• Vegas Line – Utah -7.5, 195 Over/Under
• Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Crowder-Bass-Sullinger
• Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Kanter

Boston							Utah
			Vegas Total		195					Vegas Total		195
			Vegas Sprd		7.5					Vegas Sprd		-7.5
			Team Proj.		93.75					Team Proj.		101.25
			Team Pace		98.95					Team Pace		92.9
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Proj Starter	Evan Turner	Avery Bradley	Jae Crowder	Brandon Bass	Jared Sullinger		Proj Starter	Dante Exum	Joe Ingles	Gordon Hayward	Derrick Favors	Enes Kanter
Opp. Season	10	22	11	15	2		Opp. Season	26	2	21	28	22
Opp. Last 7	9	22	28	16	5		Opp. Last 7	14	7	2	25	28

Boston

The Celtics have lost six of their last 10 games, but they have been able to keep games competitive. Tonight’s game against the Jazz is likely to be the closest of the five on the schedule. The Celtics are 7.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 195 points. This will be a pace-down game for the Celtics, but the Jazz still allow opponents to score an average of 98.5 points per game.

Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 16-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3

Elite Plays

Brandon Bass (FD: $4800, DK: $4400 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 22)

Bass has made the most of his opportunity to start for the Celtics. He has averaged 33 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action per game over his last three. His price has come up a bit across the industry, but he is still a bargain for a player that is posting 30+ fantasy points per game. The Jazz have been stingy against opposing bigs this season, but Bass is still a top value play tonight.

Secondary Plays

Jared Sullinger (FD: $6600, DK: $6600 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.7)

Sullinger is quietly playing some of his best basketball of the season. Over his last seven games, he has averaged 33 fantasy points in 30 minutes of action per game. He has a high usage rate and should see a sizable boost in minutes with Kelly Olynyk out. Sullinger will fly under the radar tonight, making him an intriguing tournament play.

Evan Turner (FD: $6000, DK: $5300 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 19.6)

Turner played 32 minutes yesterday against the Warriors, but Marcus Smart is expected to be back in the lineup tonight. Smart is always a threat to cut into Turner’s minutes, which is why he is a risky option for cash games. Turner does provide nice upside though, as he has scored at least 26 fantasy points in each of his last five games.

Utah

The Jazz have a great chance to win their third game in a row tonight, as they host the visiting Celtics. This is a sneaky matchup, as the Celtics have allowed their opponents to score an average of 103.9 points per game this season. The Jazz are projected to score 101 points tonight, which is six points higher than their season average.

Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 15-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18

Elite Plays

Gordon Hayward (FD: $7400, DK: $7800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.2)

Dante Exum isn’t the only one benefiting from Trey Burke’s move to the bench. Exum does not have the highest usage rate as a point guard is often used as a spot-up shooter while on the floor. This gives Hayward the chance to be the primary playmaker in this offense. He has topped 34 fantasy points in each of his last two games and has a good chance to reach that mark again tonight against the uptempo Celtics. While Jae Crowder is a very capable defender, Hayward is still an elite option at small forward tonight.

Dante Exum (FD: $3700, DK: $3500 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 14.9)

Since entering the starting lineup, Exum has been more than a serviceable value play. He scored 20 fantasy points against the Bucks and then backed it up with 22 fantasy points against the Nets. His price is still close to minimum salary, which provides us another opportunity to buy low on the Aussie. I have him ranked slightly lower than Larry Drew II, but it may not be a bad idea to get both of them in your lineups tonight.

Secondary Plays

The Three Bigs – Enes Kanter, Rudy Gobert, and Derrick Favors are all talented big men, but they all cut into each other’s production when they are all healthy. For that reason, they are only secondary plays tonight, even in a favorable matchup against the Celtics.

Denver at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM EST

• Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -11.5, 215.5 Over/Under
• Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
• L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan

Denver							L.A. Clippers
			Vegas Total		215.5					Vegas Total		215.5
			Vegas Sprd		11.50					Vegas Sprd		-11.50
			Team Proj.		102					Team Proj.		113.5
			Team Pace		98.66					Team Pace		96.56
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters							Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		DvP Rks	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Proj Starter	Ty Lawson	Arron Afflalo	Wilson Chandler	Kenneth Faried	Jusuf Nurkic		Proj Starter	Chris Paul	J.J. Redick	Matt Barnes	Blake Griffin	DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season	4	12	12	17	20		Opp. Season	13	27	20	27	27
Opp. Last 7	2	11	10	22	14		Opp. Last 7	22	27	26	30	10

Denver

The Nuggets have lost six games in a row and have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA this season (6-14). Tonight they travel to Los Angeles to take on a Clippers team that finally appears to be firing on all cylinders. This game should be played at a quick pace, but there aren’t any ‘must plays’ on the Nuggets tonight. Kenneth Faried and J.J. Hickson are both decent GPP plays, but neither the list of top five plays at power forward tonight.

Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 30-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Arron Afflalo (FD: $5800, DK: $6100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 20)

Afflalo provides us with a high-floor in a decent matchup against the Clippers. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games and can see upwards of 40 minutes in close games. He will not find himself on many of my lineups tonight, but is worth a look if you need a player at his price point.

Wilson Chandler (FD: $5500, DK: $5600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.2)

Chandler has shot his way out of his slump. He has scored a combined 68 fantasy points in his last two games and draws a mediocre matchup against the Clippers, who are ranked 12th against small forwards this season. He offers good upside at his price point and deserves consideration as a tournament play.

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers have won four in a row and seven of their last 10. They draw a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Nuggets, who play at a very fast pace. The Nuggets are not great defensively, ranking 22nd in defensive efficiency and allowing their opponents to score an average of 104.5 points per game. J.J. Redick and Matt Barnes are both serviceable plays at their respective positions.

Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 18-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin (FD: $9900, DK: $9800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 29.3)

Targeting bigs against the Nuggets is a strategy that I employ every chance that I get. They are ranked 27th against both power forwards and centers this season and have little to no interior defense. Time after time, we have see opposing bigs have some of their best games of the season when they square off against the Nuggets. Griffin has huge upside in this matchup and I prefer him to Anthony Davis, given the considerable price difference.

Chris Paul (FD: $9800, DK: $9600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 22.3)

The Clippers are projected to score 114 points tonight against the Nuggets. Paul is going to have a large portion of that production and he is still listed under $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has now scored at least 38 fantasy points in seven of his last nine games and has a great chance to meet value expectations tonight.

Secondary Plays

DeAndre Jordan (FD: $8300, DK: $7800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 11.9)

Jordan has scored at least 39 fantasy points in four of his last six games and draws an extremely favorable matchup against the Nuggets. If price is not an issue, I would rather target Marc Gasol tonight, but Jordan is right there as one of the top plays at center tonight. He should be in for another monster double-double against the Nuggets.