NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 5th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Cleveland at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -4, 193 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Dellavedova-Waiters-Miller-Love-Thompson
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-McDaniels-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Cleveland | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 94.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.55 | Team Pace | 99.36 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Matthew Dellavedova | Dion Waiters | Mike Miller | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | K.J. McDaniels | Robert Covington | L Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 28 | 29 | 18 | 20 | Opp. Season | 5 | 29 | 10 | 20 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 25 | 18 | 23 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 27 | 6 | 21 | 12 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers will be without both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving tonight as they head to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers. With these two players out of the lineup, Dion Waiters and Kevin Love are both going to be asked to step up offensively. This is a near-perfect scenario for fantasy production. The Cavaliers’ players will all have an increased role in the offense and they draw an extremely favorable matchup against the Sixers.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 4-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Tristan Thompson (FD: $6100, DK: $6800 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Thompson may not have a high ceiling, but he has a very high floor. Over his last six games, he has averaged 13 points and 13 rebounds per game. He has scored at least 29 fantasy points in each of those six games. He should be a lock for double-digit rebounds again tonight, as the Sixers are ranked dead last in rebounding differential this season. Thompson is a terrific target at power forward in cash games tonight.
Dion Waiters (FD: $5400, DK: $5600 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 24.1)
If there was ever a time for Waiters to crack the starting lineup, this would be it. LeBron James and Kyrie Irving are both out tonight. Even if Waiters is forced to come off the bench (for some strange reason), he’ll likely still play 30+ minutes in this one. Plus, he will have an increased usage rate while on the floor. Not only will his role in the offense expand tonight, but he also draws a very favorable matchup. The Sixers have allowed the third most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Matthew Dellavedova (FD: $3600, DK: $4000 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 12.2)
Dellevedova will draw the start at point guard tonight with Kyrie Irving sidelined. Dion Waiters will likely spend some time at point as well, but Delly will likely be asked to play 30+ minutes against the Sixers tonight. He is close to min-salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings and only needs around 20 fantasy points to reach value. With an increased role in the offense, he’s certainly capable of that tonight against the Sixers, who have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Kevin Love (FD: $8500, DK: $10600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Love is an elite play on FanDuel ($8,500) and a borderline play on DraftKings ($10,600). The pricing between the two sites is drastic. Love should be the go-to player in the Cavaliers’ offense tonight and we may see him post a T-Wolves esque type of performance. He is playing his best basketball of the season, averaging 29 points and 9 rebounds over his last two games. He should dominate the paint tonight and post a monster double-double. The only question is if $10,600 is too much to pay for him on DraftKings.
Philadelphia
The Sixers have a good chance of picking up their fifth win of the season tonight. Vegas has the Sixers listed as 4-point underdogs against a very short-handed Cavaliers team. Even though this game has a fairly low total of 193 points, it could very easily turn into a track meet. The Sixers draw a fantasy-friendly matchup, but the issue is that their team doesn’t offer many attractive fantasy options.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 19-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $5800, DK: $5700 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
Covington has really played well as a starter this season, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. He has played at least 32 minutes in each of his last four games and should see another heavy dose of minutes tonight against the Cavaliers. You can safely ignore the Cavaliers’ defense vs. position ranking against small forwards tonight, as LeBron James is not in the lineup. Covington is a low-risk, medium-reward fantasy option tonight.
Charlotte at Boston
- Vegas Line – Boston -5.5, 198 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Biyombo
- Boston Proj. Starters – Turner-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Zeller
| Charlotte | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.3 | Team Proj. | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.81 | Team Pace | 100.26 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Bismack Biyombo | Proj Starter | Evan Turner | Avery Bradley | Jeff Green | Jared Sullinger | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 5 | 14 | 30 | 25 | Opp. Season | 21 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 6 | 20 | 29 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 30 | 16 | 5 | 17 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets will be without Lance Stephenson and Al Jefferson tonight as they take on the Celtics in Boston. Vegas has the Hornets listed as 5.5-point underdogs in what should be a fairly high scoring game. The Celtics are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and they have allowed an average of 104.4 points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 11-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $8700, DK: $10300 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
With Lance Stephenson and Al Jefferson out, it will be another edition of the Kemba Walker show tonight. Walker has scored at least 42 fantasy points in three of his last five games and draws a nice matchup against the Celtics tonight. Even though Rajon Rondo isn’t in Boston anymore, the Celtics have still struggled to contain point guards, allowing the sixth most fantasy points to point guards over the last seven days. Walker is over-priced on DraftKings, but is very much in play on FanDuel.
Secondary Plays
None
Boston
The Celtics are 5.5-point favorites tonight against the short-handed Hornets. The C’s are projected to score 101.8 points tonight, which is near their season average. The Hornets are an average defensive team that has given up close to 100 points per game this season. The issue with the Celtics is that they have an inconsistent rotation. There isn’t a single player on the team that is guaranteed to play 30+ minutes every single night.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 11-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Evan Turner (FD: $4900, DK: $5400 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 20)
Turner has really played well as the starting point guard over his last three games. During that stretch, he has averaged 16 points, 4 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. His price on FanDuel has yet to adjust to his recent level of production, making him an attractive fantasy option on that site. As long as he is in the starting lineup, he should find success against the Hornets, who have allowed the tenth most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Dallas at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Dallas -6.5, 204.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Karasev-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
| Dallas | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.5 | Team Proj. | 99.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.12 | Team Pace | 94.53 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Sergey Karasev | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 15 | 22 | 21 | 7 | Opp. Season | 29 | 8 | 18 | 7 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 7 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 30 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks travel to Brooklyn to take on a Nets team that has been playing well recently. Vegas is not falling for the Nets recent play though, as they have the Mavericks listed as 6.5-point favorites tonight. This isn’t the most favorable matchup on the board. The Nets play at a relatively slow pace of play and they are ranked 12th in defensive efficiency.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 16-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Rajon Rondo (FD: $8300, DK: $8600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
Rondo is coming off of his best offensive game of the season. He scored a season-high 29 points against his former team in which he hit five three-pointers. His price has taken a jump upwards, but he’s still at a playable level on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He draws a fantasy-friendly matchup against the Nets, who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Brooklyn
The Nets have won six of their last ten and are back in the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. A win over the Mavericks would go a long way in boosting their confidence. While the Mavericks have allowed 102.3 points per game to their opponents this season, the Nets are a tough team to predict right now. They have Brook Lopez and Deron Williams coming off the bench, which really hurts the potential production of the starters. You may want to avoid the Nets altogether on a night with a full slate of games.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 25-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson (FD: $7000, DK: $6800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.7)
Johnson is the one Nets’ player that I may have some exposure to tonight. His minutes are not going to change regardless of how well the bench plays. He has played at least 33 minutes in each of his last ten games and has scored at least 31 fantasy points in six of those ten outings. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Mavericks, who are ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season.
Washington at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -3, 200.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Asik
| Washington | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.5 |  | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.8 | Team Proj. | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.83 | Team Pace | 95.19 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Tyreke Evans | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 14 | 25 | 10 | 5 | Opp. Season | 6 | 1 | 26 | 2 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 20 | 4 | 24 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 14 | 25 | 20 | 2 | |
Washington
The Wizards have lost three games in a row and have fallen to the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. They will look to end their mini-slide tonight against the Pelicans in New Orleans. Vegas has the Wizards listed as 3-point underdogs in a game that features a generous total of 200.5 points. If this game was in Washington, it may be a different story, but there is really only one fantasy option that I’ll be targeting on the Wizards tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 17-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Bradley Beal (FD: $6600, DK: $6500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
Beal can struggle with consistency at times, but he makes up for it with his upside. We typically label this type of player as a GPP-only play. Beal’s last four fantasy outings are a perfect example of this, as he has scored 43, 19, 39, and 20 fantasy points. He’s a solid tournament option that will have a very low level of ownership tonight.
New Orleans
Eric Gordon is expected to be back in the lineup tonight. It hasn’t been announced whether he will start or come off the bench. It shouldn’t impact the starters all that much, other than Luke Babbitt of course. Tyreke Evans is questionable for this game, so make sure to keep your eye on his status before tip-off. In terms of the matchup, this is a tough one. The Wizards are an average-paced team that owns a top five defense. The Pelicans do play well at home, but I recommend having very little exposure to this game.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 22-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11200, DK: $11400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26)
If there is one lesson that we have learned about Anthony Davis this, it’s that he can play well even in tough matchups. He’s not my favorite superstar to spend up on tonight, but he has 60 fantasy point type of upside every time he takes the floor. In his first meeting against the Wizards this season, he had 30 points and 13 rebounds. With all of the value out there tonight, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to fit two or even three superstars into your lineup.
Houston at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -3, 200 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Mirotic-Gasol-Noah
| Houston | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.62 | Team Pace | 96.14 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Nikola Mirotic | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 2 | 27 | 11 | 26 | Opp. Season | 2 | 13 | 21 | 13 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 11 | 28 | 16 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 18 | 21 | 4 | 22 | |
Houston
The Rockets head to Chicago in what will be a battle between two very good defensive teams. Vegas has the total set at 200 points, but my money would be on the under if I was into that sort of thing. The Bulls are an average-paced team that is ranked 9th in defensive efficiency this season. They are also ranked 3rd in rebounding differential. With all of the talent on the Rockets, it’s hard to trust anyone not named James ‘Glorious Beardman’ Harden.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 24-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
James Harden (FD: $11200, DK: $11300 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.7)
Harden’s production has been down over the last two games, but it’s not because of the Rockets’ new acquisitions. Both of those games turned into blowouts, which led to Harden only played a combined 53 minutes in those contests. Harden should get back to playing 35+ minutes tonight against the Bulls. The reason he is not listed as an elite play is his matchup against Jimmy Butler. Butler is an elite perimeter defender, as evidenced by the fact that the Bulls have allowed the second fewest fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Chicago
Jimmy Butler is expected to be back in the lineup tonight, however they are not expecting to have Mike Dunleavy back. It’s my hope that Nikola Mirotic will draw another start at small forward, but we have to expect the unexpected with Coach Thibodeau. A wise man once said, “Thib gonna Thib.” In terms of the matchup, this is one that we would typically want to avoid. The Rockets are ranked second in defensive efficiency and sixth in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 23-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Nikola Mirotic (FD: $5100, DK: $5300 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 18.7)
Mike Dunleavy is not expected to play tonight, which means Mirotic could – and hopefully will – draw another start at small forward. He played very well in his start the other night, scoring 30 fantasy points in 38 minutes of action. He has been very productive on the floor this season, averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute of action. If he starts, we can expect him to see 30+ minutes of playing time tonight. If that’s the case, he should easily meet and exceed value at his price point.
Secondary Plays
Jimmy Butler (FD: $9600, DK: $8800 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 22)
Butler missed the Bulls’ game the other night, as he was attending a funeral. He is back with the team for tonight’s game though, and should pick up right where he left off. He is having a truly great season, averaging 22 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals per game. He is also averaging over 40 minutes per game, which is a huge plus in daily fantasy basketball. Tonight he’ll match up against James Harden, who has never been an elite defender. Butler is considerably cheaper than Harden and is capable of putting up a similar fantasy outing.
Pau Gasol (FD: $9000, DK: $9600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 24)
Gasol will have a low percentage of ownership tonight, but is worth a look in cash games. He doesn’t have enough upside to justify using him in tournaments at this price point, but he does provide a very high floor for cash games. Gasol is averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists per game this season. The Bulls will look to exploit his mismatch against the likes of Donatas Motiejunas and Josh Smith.