NBA Grind Down Monday, January 5th - Page Two
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Denver at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Denver -4, 209 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Wiggins-Muhammad-Young-Dieng
| Denver | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.50 | Team Proj. | 102.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.71 | Team Pace | 98.43 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Andrew Wiggins | Shabazz Muhammad | Thaddeus Young | Nikola Pekovic | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 22 | 30 | 25 | 19 | Opp. Season | 9 | 24 | 5 | 29 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 28 | 1 | 28 | 3 | |
Denver
This game should be a goldmine for fantasy production. Both of these teams like to push the pace and both are ranked in the bottom ten in terms of defensive efficiency. The total for the game is set at 209 points, which would likely be a lot higher if either of these offenses were any better. Basically, this game is going to be a track meet and it will not hurt to have a heavy exposure to players from both teams tonight. Ty Lawson is worth a look tonight in tournaments, but he does not crack my top five point guard plays tonight, as there are better options at better price points.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 5-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Kenneth Faried (FD: $6800, DK: $7400 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
If you exclude his bad outing against the Lakers, Faried is averaging 19 points, 18 rebounds, and 2 assists over his last five games. He is reminding us why he has the nickname of “The Manimal.” All signs point to a big performance from Faried tonight. The T-Wolves are ranked 26th in rebounding differential this season and they have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Thaddeus Young is not going to be able to keep Faried off the glass in this one.
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5800, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 21.1)
Small forward isn’t quite as thin as it is on some nights, but it’s still a position that lacks options. Chandler makes a terrific play tonight, especially on FanDuel where he is listed at a bargain-bin price of only $5,800. He draws a dream matchup against the T-Wolves, who have allowed more fantasy points to small forwards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Secondary Plays
Jusuf Nurkic (FD: $4700, DK: $4600 / MPG: 13 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
If you haven’t been paying attention to Nurkic, you may want to start tonight. His minutes are still only in the mid-20’s, but he’s made the most of his opportunities. He has scored 36, 29, and 36 fantasy points over his last three games and is still very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Minnesota
The T-Wolves are 4-point underdogs tonight against the Nuggets at home. As I mentioned with the Nuggets, there will be little to no defense played in this game. The Nuggets are one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA and they have given up an average of 104 points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 14-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 104
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6200, DK: $6300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Wiggins is a little bit cheaper than Shabazz Muhammad tonight and I would actually have him ranked higher even if they were priced similarly. The T-Wolves are doing everything they can to develop their young rookie. He has played at least 37 minutes in five of his last six games and he has scored at least 32 fantasy points in each of those outings. Considering the price and the expected playing time, he may be my favorite small forward on the board tonight (dollar for dollar).
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6600, DK: $7000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.9)
Dieng continues to play well with Nikola Pekovic out. In 23 starts at center this season, he has averaged 10 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He has shown that he has good upside, scoring 44 fantasy points in two of his last six games. Targeting big men against the Nuggets is one of my favorite traditions, a tradition that Dieng will carry on tonight.
Secondary Plays
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6200, DK: $6100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Young has the perfect combination of a depressed price tag and a terrific matchup. The problem is that he doesn’t really do a whole lot other than score and get steals. He may be a little too risky to use in cash games, but he an excellent tournament option against the Nuggets, who have allowed the second most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
New York at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -13.5, 191 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Hardaway-Smith-Smith-Aldrich
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Leuer-Gasol
| New York | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191.5 |  | Vegas Total | 191.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.5 | Vegas Sprd | -13.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 88.8 | Team Proj. | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.41 | Team Pace | 93.91 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Tim Hardaway | J.R. Smith | Jason Smith | Cole Aldrich | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Jon Leuer | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 26 | 7 | 16 | 1 | Opp. Season | 11 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 24 | 2 | 18 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 23 | 3 | 9 | 28 | |
New York
The Knicks are expected to be short-handed again with Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Andrea Bargnani all expected to miss tonight’s game. This would typically open up a lot of production for the other starters, but the Grizzlies are not a great team to target players against. This game could easily turn into a blowout, as the Knicks are 13.5-point underdogs. Cole Aldrich and J.R. Smith are worth a look in tournaments, but the entire Knicks’ team can be avoided in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 24-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 98
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis
The Grizzlies are huge favorites at home tonight against the Knicks. While this is a fantasy-friendly matchup, we may have to factor in a blowout here. The Knicks continue to be a mess and have a very small chance of ending their 11-game losing streak tonight. With the potential blowout, there aren’t any elite plays on the Grizzlies tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 5-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $9000, DK: $9700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
If there was an award for the most consistent fantasy option of the season, Gasol would have his named already half engraved on the trophy. He rarely has a bad fantasy outing. He has scored at least 32 fantasy points in each of his last ten games and he’s topped 40 fantasy points in five of those outings. Zach Randolph is not expected to be back tonight, which means the Grizzlies will have to lean heavily on Gasol for at least one more game.
Mike Conley (FD: $7700, DK: $8400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
Conley has really stepped up in Zach Randolph’s absence. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points in three of his last six games and he’s seen an increase in his usage rate with Z-Bo off the floor. Conley is still sitting at a very affordable $7,700 on FanDuel and would be an elite play if it wasn’t for the potential blowout.
Indiana at Utah
- Vegas Line – Utah -2, 187 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Sloan-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Ingles-Favors-Gobert
| Indiana | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 187 |  | Vegas Total | 187 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2 | Vegas Sprd | -2 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 94.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.16 | Team Pace | 92.51 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Donald Sloan | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | ||||||
| Opp. Season | 7 | 11 | 15 | 26 | 3 | Opp. Season | 18 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 19 | 22 | 13 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 6 | 27 | |
Indiana
George Hill is not expected to play tonight against the Jazz. C.J. Watson is listed as questionable. If both are forced to sit out again, that would give a huge boost to both Donald Sloan and C.J. Miles. Tonight the Pacers head to Utah to take on the Jazz. This game features two of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA, which is why the total is set at only 187 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 12-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
Donald Sloan (FD: $4500, DK: $4600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
It wouldn’t surprise anyone if George Hill and C.J. Watson are both ruled out again tonight. If that’s the case, Donald Sloan would draw the start at point guard and see all of the minutes that he can handle. He has really played well over the last two games, averaging 13 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. As long as he draws the start tonight, he will arguably be the best value play on the board.
Secondary Plays
C.J. Miles (FD: $5500, DK: $4500 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Miles is coming off of a terrific three-game stretch where he averaged 22 points and 4 rebounds per game. With the injuries to the guards, Miles is seeing extended playing time off the bench. His price on FanDuel has come up quite a bit, but he’s still very playable on DraftKings. At $4,500, you can’t ask for much more than 30+ minutes from a player that has a usage rate of 24.4 on the season.
Utah
The Jazz are going to be very short-handed tonight. Enes Kanter and Rodney Hood have already been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Pacers. Trey Burke could also miss the game, as he missed shoot-around this morning. In terms of the matchup, this one leaves much to be desired. The Pacers play at a slow pace and are ranked in the top ten in both defensive efficiency and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 13-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $5300, DK: $5900 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
“Gobert or go home,” that’s what I always say. Gobert will draw another start at center tonight. He has been very productive this season, averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute of playing time. His biggest issue is that he’s had a hard time getting on the court, playing behind Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter. That shouldn’t be a problem now that he is in the starting lineup. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Pacers, who have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Trey Burke (FD: $5900, DK: $6300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.4)
Hopefully Burke will be able to suit up tonight, because he is playing his best basketball of the season. Over his last five games, he is averaging 18 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists per game. What may be most impressive is that he has averaged 37 minutes per game during that stretch. As long as he is in the starting lineup tonight, he’s worth consideration against a Pacers defense, that is ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season.
L.A. Lakers at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -12.5, 209.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Price-Ellington-Young-Davis-Hill
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Leonard
| L.A. Lakers | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.5 |  | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.5 | Team Proj. | 111.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.82 | Team Pace | 96.65 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ronnie Price | Wayne Ellington | Nick Young | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Meyers Leonard | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 6 | 24 | 4 | 21 | Opp. Season | 30 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 29 | |
L.A. Lakers
Kobe Bryant will not play in tonight’s game against the Blazers, which really hurts the chances of the Lakers keeping this one close. They may also be without Wesley Johnson. Vegas has the Lakers listed as 12.5-point underdogs against a very good defensive team. The Blazers are ranked third in defensive efficiency this season, holding opponents to 97.1 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 26-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Nick Young (FD: $5000, DK: $4600 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 25)
As I mentioned above, Kobe Bryant will not play tonight and it looks like Wesley Johnson could sit out as well. That should open up big minutes for “Swaggy P.” Young has played well this season, he just hasn’t been given starter’s minutes. That could very well change tonight against the Blazers.
Wayne Ellington (FD: $3700, DK: $3200 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 16.4)
Ellington offers great value on both FanDuel and DraftKings. With Kobe Bryant out, he should slide into the starting lineup tonight against the Blazers. In three starts this season, he has averaged 12 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. A similar outing tonight would make him easily reach value at his price point.
Portland
The Blazers are huge favorites at home tonight against the Lakers. This is a classic fantasy conundrum where the matchup is ideal, but the potential for a blowout could ruin the fantasy production of the starters. Given the fact that there are ten other games on the schedule, I recommend using the Blazers more as GPP plays rather than cash game options. The upside is certainly there though, as the Lakers are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 11-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $10300, DK: $10900 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 29.1)
Aldridge is having another terrific season. He is averaging 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. The Blazers front-court is extremely thin right now and if the Lakers can manage to keep this one close, Aldridge could push for close to 40 minutes tonight. Aldridge makes an excellent tournament play, given his upside in this matchup.
Damian Lillard (FD: $9100, DK: $10400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Lillard is in the same boat as Aldridge. He’s a bit too risky to use in cash games, but could make for an intriguing tournament option if the Lakers can somehow keep this game close. He draws the best matchup on the board, as the Lakers have allowed more fantasy points to points guards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Oklahoma City at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -3, 217.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Speights
| Oklahoma City | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.5 |  | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.3 | Team Proj. | 110.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.99 | Team Pace | 100.71 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 2 | Opp. Season | 27 | 10 | 3 | 19 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 9 | 13 | 30 | 19 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder take on the Warriors in a game that has the highest total on the board. Even though both of these teams boast top ten defenses, this is not a game that will be won on the defensive end of the floor. The total is set at 217.5 points and no one would be surprised if the total hits the 220 or even the 230 mark. These are two of the best offenses in the NBA.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 26-5
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $11600, DK: $10500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 39.5)
Westbrook is more expensive than Durant on FanDuel, but Durant is more expensive than Westbrook on DraftKings. My plan is to use Westbrook on DraftKings and Durant on FanDuel in my main cash game lineups. That way I have exposure to both players and I get to take them at their optimal prices. Westbrook has 60 fantasy point type of upside every time he takes the floor and should have another huge outing against Stephen Curry and the Warriors, who have allowed the ninth most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Kevin Durant (FD: $10500, DK: $11500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 31.9)
It’s safe to say that Durant is no longer on a minutes-restriction. He has averaged 35 minutes per game over his last two and should see at least that tonight against the Warriors. The first time Durant faced the Warriors this season; he put up 30 points in the first half before being forced from the game with an ankle injury. Durant finally has his confidence back, as evidenced by a combined 78 points in his last two games. With small forward being such a thin position, there is no reason not to pay up for Durant tonight against the Warriors (on FanDuel at least).
Secondary Plays
None
Golden State
The Warriors are 13-1 at home this season, but have a very tough test in front of them tonight. Vegas has the Warriors listed as 3-point favorites tonight against the Thunder. This is a game where we have to throw out the defensive statistics. Both of these teams don’t mind getting into a shootout and this game has the highest total of the night for a reason.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 17-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10500, DK: $11100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.9)
Curry is an elite play tonight against the Thunder. In their previous two meetings this season, Curry has averaged 25 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists, and 3 steals per game. While Russell Westbrook is arguably the most talented point guard in the NBA, his defense could use some work. The Thunder have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. I’m expecting Curry to go toe to toe with Westbrook tonight.
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $8200, DK: $8300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 17)
Green is the heart and soul of this Warriors team. He has been terrific this season, averaging 12 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks per game. He can do everything well on the floor and is typically asked to play 38-40 minutes in tough games. Tonight’s matchup against the Thunder certainly qualifies as a tough game. The only reason he is not an elite play is his hefty price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Klay Thompson (FD: $7700, DK: $7900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.6)
Thompson is one of the best scorers in the NBA and he’s managed to produce a level of consistency that we haven’t seen from him in the past. He has scored at least 26 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. He is averaging 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists per game this season and has a very high usage rate in this offense at 26.6.