NBA Grind Down Monday, November 17th - Page Two
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Houston at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -3.5, 190 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Prince-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Houston | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190 |  | Vegas Total | 190 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.25 | Team Proj. | 96.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.04 | Team Pace | 93.51 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Tayshaun Prince | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 5 | Opp. Season | 4 | 10 | 22 | 10 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 1 | 17 | 29 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 27 | 22 | 2 | 23 | |
Houston
The Rockets are in a tough spot tonight. They are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games and they are facing the Grizzlies who are one of the better defensive teams in the NBA. This will be a pace-down game for the Rockets, as the Grizzlies average only 93.5 possession per 48 minutes. Basically, they will face off against a top five defense in a slow-paced game. That’s not exactly what we want to target in DFS. You can target James Harden and Dwight Howard in tournaments, but I’ll be fading the Rockets as a whole tonight.
Injury Note: Terrence Jones is not expected to play tonight which means Donatas Motiejunas will likely draw another start at PF.
Prime Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Memphis
The Grizzlies are a slow paced team, but this will be a pace-up game for them as the Rockets average 98.0 possessions per 48 minutes. The total is set at 190 points which is right around what we expect most Grizzlies games to be. In terms of the matchup, it does leave much to be desired as the Rockets are ranked 1st in defensive efficiency and 4th in rebounding differential. Common thought is that facing the Rockets is a good matchup to exploit, but that couldn’t be further from the truth this season.
Prime Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Zach Randolph – Randolph is the one Grizzlies player that I will have some exposure to tonight. He is coming off of a huge fantasy outing against the Pistons in which he put up 17 points, 22 rebounds, and 4 assists.
Philadelphia at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -15.5, 195 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Wroten-Thompson-Mbah a Moute-Davies-Sims
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Bonner
| Philadelphia | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 15.50 | Vegas Sprd | -15.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.75 | Team Proj. | 105.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.61 | Team Pace | 95.11 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Wroten | Hollis Thompson | Luc Mbah a Moute | Brandon Davies | Henry Sims | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Matt Bonner | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 9 | Opp. Season | 3 | 30 | 29 | 7 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 30 | 24 | 18 | 10 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers just missed out on their first win of the season, as they lost by a single point to the Rockets. They will get on their quest for a victory again tonight as they head to San Antonio to take on the Spurs. The Sixers are 15.5-point underdogs, which doesn’t bode well for their chances. This is a tough matchup, as the Spurs are a slow paced team with the 5th best defense in the league in terms of efficiency. Michael Carter-Williams will continue to come off the bench, which makes me want to avoid the Sixers altogether tonight.
Prime Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
San Antonio
The Spurs are a risky proposition tonight. While they do have a prime matchup against the Sixers, they are 15.5-point favorites and they are playing at home. We all know how much Coach Popovich likes to rest his veterans and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tony Parker and Tim Duncan play 20-25 minute tonight. The upside for the Spurs is certainly there, but they could easily get “Pop’ed” in a potential blowout. Avoid the Spurs in cash game games and fire them up as tournament plays.
Prime Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tim Duncan/Tony Parker/Kawhi Leonard – All three have favorable matchups tonight. The Sixers are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency, 30th in rebounding differential, and are giving up an average of 106 points per game. All three make good tournament plays and you could make the case for Leonard being a cash game play as well.
New Orleans at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -3, 203 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Asik
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Crabbe-Aldridge (?)-Lopez
| New Orleans | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.23 | Team Pace | 95.8 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Eric Gordon | Tyreke Evans | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Allen Crabbe | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 20 | Opp. Season | 9 | 8 | 30 | 21 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 1 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans are coming off of two blowout wins in a row, as they easily beat the Lakers and the Timberwolves. They come into tonight’s game as 3-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 203 points. The Blazers play at an average pace (95.8 possessions per game) and are ranked 7th in defensive efficiency this season. The Blazers could be without two of their best defenders though, as Nicolas Batum and LaMarcus Aldridge are both questionable for tonight’s game.
Injury Note: Omer Asik is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is forced to sit, Ryan Anderson would likely start and see a nice fantasy boost.
Prime Plays
Anthony Davis – Once again, Davis is the top overall fantasy option tonight and he comes with the label of “fade at your own risk.” Davis is averaging 25 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 blocks, and 2 steals per game. He does everything on the floor well and with all of the value available at the other positions, it’s fairly easy to fit him in your lineup tonight. Fire up Davis as the top overall option tonight (LeBron James is a close second) and give him a small boost if LaMarcus Aldridge is out for the Blazers.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans – Jrue Holiday may be the PG in this offense, but Evans is the main play-maker. His usage rate of 25.9 is ranked 21st in the NBA. He would see a nice boost tonight if Nicolas Batum doesn’t play, as he’d match up with Allen Crabbe instead.
Portland
It’s hard to analyze the Blazers with both LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum both questionable for tonight’s game. Batum was a full-participant in yesterday’s practice, but it sounds like the Blazers may hold him out again. Aldridge was a limited participant in practice, but has a better shot of the two at playing tonight.
Prime Plays
Damian Lillard – Lillard has been on fire over the last week and a half. He has scored at least 40 fantasy points in four of his last five games and would see a big fantasy boost if Nicolas Batum and/or LaMarcus Aldridge have to sit out again tonight. Lillard will have his hands full with Jrue Holiday, but an increased role in the offense will outweigh the bad matchup.
Secondary Plays
Wesley Matthews – Matthews is in play tonight regardless of Nicolas Batum’s status, but he would obviously see a nice fantasy boost if Batum is forced to sit out again. Matthews has scored at least 20 fantasy points in every single game this season and he’s topped 25 fantasy points in seven of the first ten games.
Chicago at L.A. Clippers
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -5, 198 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Chicago | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.68 | Team Pace | 97.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 16 | Opp. Season | 13 | 22 | 28 | 11 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 9 | 14 | 22 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 2 | 23 | 24 | 4 | |
Chicago
There’s not a day that goes by that we don’t have to talk about the health of Derrick Rose. Luckily for us, he has already been ruled out for tonight’s game. Kirk Hinrich, Aaron Brooks, and Jimmy Butler all see a boost in his absence. The Bulls are 5-point underdogs tonight against the Clippers in what should be a fairly high-scoring game. The Clippers are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency and have given up an average of 102.4 points per game to their opponents.
Prime Plays
Jimmy Butler – Butler continues to be a terrific fantasy option despite his rising salary. He’s now topped 24 fantasy points in every game this season and he’s topped 34 fantasy points in six of his first eight games. With Rose out, he will continue to have a major role in this offense. Until he proves otherwise, keep using him as a viable SG option.
Secondary Plays
Joakim Noah – Noah’s numbers are down this season, but the Bulls don’t have to run their offense through him anymore. Even though he’s not putting up triple-doubles, he’s still an elite option at center. He’s topped 32 fantasy points in three of his last four games and the Clippers are ranked 16th against centers this season.
L.A. Clippers
Last season, the Bulls were one of the slowest paced teams in the league and they had a top three defense. This season is a different story though as they are averaging close to 96 possessions per 48 minutes. They are also only ranked 10th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in rebounding differential. We no longer have to avoid everyone that is facing the Bulls.
Prime Plays
Blake Griffin – Pau Gasol brings a lot to the table offensively, but he is not a great defender and he’s certainly not one that will be able to stop Griffin. On the season, Griffin is averaging 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. He should improve on those numbers tonight against the Bulls, who do not rebound well.
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul – Paul has a decent matchup against the likes of Kirk Hinrich and Aaron Brooks, but if I’m paying up for a superstar player tonight, I’m going to pay up for Anthony Davis or LeBron James instead.