Sign In Get the App $ $

NBA Grind Down: Saturday, April 9th - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-04-09 20:35:25

Article Image

Minnesota at Portland – 10:30 PM

Minnesota Portland
Article Image Vegas Total 215 Article Image Vegas Total 215
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 103.3 Team Proj. 111.8
Team Pace 97.44 Team Pace 98.31
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Maurice Harkless Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 24 18 4 22 27 Opp. Season 25 21 18 10 6
Opp. Last 7 28 8 1 25 30 Opp. Last 7 24 10 17 7 6

Minnesota

Record: 27-52 — Road: 14-26 — Last 10: 5-5

Minnesota is looking to close the year strong with their young core as they pulled off a shocker in Golden State and are 5-5 over their past ten games .They have a tough draw tonight as Portland plays very well at home, but Portland is not an elite defense so there are some spots to cherry pick here.

The Minnesota starters have been playing big minutes in the 2nd half but I’ll pass on Andrew Wiggins and Gorgui Dieng in this matchup. Dieng’s minutes have become volatile recently, and he only played 19 minutes against an uptempo Golden State team that will play small. Portland likes to play fast and is playing small by starting Moe Harkless and Aminu at the forwards so I have concerns the pace of this one is too much for Gorgui. In terms of DvP this is a good spot so I don’t mind him for a tournament, but I think the matchup puts his minutes as a question mark tonight. As far as Wiggins goes, Portland now has two quality wing defenders in Aminu and Harkless on the court so I don’t like the prospects of Wiggins scoring at a great clip here. He’s a guy who is scoring dependent so if he’s not going to score 20 points then he’s unlikely to meet value and Portland has held him to 16 PPG this season. I’d primarily focus on KAT and Rubio, but don’t mind LaVine as he’ll draw a better matchup than Wiggins.

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns

Portland has really struggled to guard opposing centers, and KAT is well on his way to becoming the top center in the league. He’s flashed big upside recently and he’s played well against Portland this year averaging 19.7 PPG, 10 RPG and 3 blocks

FD — $8,800— C
DK — $8,800– C
Min/Game —Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 36.2

Secondary Plays

Ricky Rubio (elite GPP)

I wanted to list him as an elite option, but he’s really been struggling to produce over his past three games so he’s a risky cash game option. However, he does carry solid GPP upside in this matchup against Damian Lillard, who plays little defense. Rubio has been very productive in three games against Portland this year as he’s averaging 40 DK PPG in 31 MPG

FD — $6,500— PG
DK — $6,700– PG
Min/Game —Season: 30.8 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 30.3

Portland

Record: 43-37 — Home: 27-12 — Last 10: 7-3

Portland is in a nice spot tonight as they’re at home where they’ve played really well and have a team total 6 points higher than their season average. They’ve managed to chase down Memphis for the 5 seed in the West, but still need victories to hold onto that seeding so rest shouldn’t be a factor tonight.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard (GPP)

Lillard is a tough guy to nail down tonight and I debated between listing him as an elite or secondary option. Over the course of the year, he’s an elite option at this price against a Minnesota defense that is 24th in DvP against PG. Portland checks in with a 111 point team total so everything points to rostering Lillard at this price. However, he’s really struggled recently and has not been producing at his normal clip for about 10 games now. It’s quite possible he’s gassed after shouldering so much offensive responsibility this year as he’s shooting just 32% over his past five games. However, on the flipside, if his shot starts to fall he has big upside at this price. I’m still debating as to his cash game viability and likely won’t even play cash games until the playoffs start up, but he’s a guy I’ll get some GPP exposure to as the upside is there.

FD — $8,000— PG
DK — $8,600– PG
Min/Game —Season: 35.8 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 39.4

C. J. McCollum

With Lillard scuffling, C. J. has picked up the slack and has been producing at a solid clip. If you’re fading Lillard then I’d look to grab C. J. as one of these two guards is going to have a big game if they are going to score the 111 points that Vegas predicts. In terms of positional scarcity he’s a great option as SG isn’t overly impressive tonight and MInnesota is just 21st in DvP against SG on the season.

FD — $7,000— SG
DK — $6,900– SG
Min/Game —Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 31.7

Maurice Harkless (secondary FD)

Oddly enough FD has been more aggressive on pricing some guys like Frazier and Harkless, but they are still great values on DK. He’s more of a secondary value on FD, but on DK it’s really tough to overlook his 4.4k tag. He’s been terrific since being inserted into the starting lineup and draws a quality matchup with a weak Minnesota defense. He’s bringing tons of activity in terms of rebounding and running the court, and has topped 30 DK points in each of his past three games.

FD — $5,400— SF
DK — $4,400– SF
Min/Game —Season: 18.5 | Last Five Games: 29.0
FP/Game — Season: 31.7

Secondary Plays

Al-Farouq Aminu

He’s had a 27 and 28 point outburst over his past five games, which isn’t typical so I wouldn’t expect another outburst like that. However, he has benefited from Portland’s move to small ball and has seen his minutes stabilize. He’s topped 27 DK points in seven of his last ten games and could be lower owned than guys like P. J. Tucker and Luke Babbitt.

FD — $5,700— SF
DK — $5,300– SF
Min/Game —Season: 28.6 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 21.8

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)