NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 13th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Golden State at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -1.5, 214.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Ezeli
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Golden State | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.5 | Team Proj. | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.32 | Team Pace | 96.08 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Festus Ezeli | Proj Starter | J.J. Barea | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 10 | Opp. Season | 21 | 27 | 8 | 22 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 29 | 19 | 19 | 10 | |
Golden State
The Warriors take their 14 game win streak to Dallas today as slight underdogs. They will be without Andrew Bogut this weekend, and Festus Ezeli is expected to continue to take his place in the starting lineup. Ezeli doesn’t have much fantasy relevance at this point since Steve Kerr has been favoring a smaller lineup for extended stretches lately.
Elite Plays
Klay Thompson — With Thompson, you get a guy that for $7,000 on DK is averaging over 5x that on the season. There’s added value for Thompson on DK with the three point bonus and he has a great matchup against the undersized Monta Ellis.
Draymond Green — David Lee is still out, and with Bogut missing the weekend, much of the rebounding will come from Green. Dirk Nowitzki will pull him away from the basket some, but not enough to heavily impact his rebounding totals negatively.
Secondary Plays
None
Dallas
The Mavericks get a boost in possessions by facing the Warriors today. Golden State ranks second — just behind Boston — in pace of play this season. When teams play up in pace against teams that like to run, the guards are typically the players that benefit the most. Neither team played last night, so they will be well rested and ready to run. Keep an eye on the statuses of Jameer Nelson and Chandler Parsons, both questionable to play.
Elite Plays
Monta Ellis — Ellis was drafted by Golden State, so if you think that he still holds a grudge about the Warriors trading him a few years back, then this could be your narrative play of the day. The reason I’m interested though is because Ellis loves to get to the rim, and without Bogut, the Warriors aren’t very good at protecting the rim.
Secondary Plays
None
Portland at Indiana
- Vegas Line – Portland -4.5, 191.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Portland | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | 191 | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | 93.5 | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.29 | Team Pace | 94.49 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | C.J. Watson | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 30 | Opp. Season | 20 | 2 | 25 | 4 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 22 | 5 | 8 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 20 | 25 | 26 | 6 | |
Portland
Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge each scored 35 points in last night’s loss to the Bulls, so you’ll see plenty of people chasing those points today. Tonight they face the Pacers, losers of seven straight, but a team likely to turn things around soon here with key players like Roy Hibbert and David West recently returning from injuries.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Damian Lillard — If you were judging just by talent alone, you might say that Lillard has been the most under-priced point guard all year. If you look at the production, he’s been better than guys like Michael Carter-Williams and Ty Lawson, yet he’s cheaper. Assuming Indiana starts C.J. Watson again, Lillard will absolutely have his way. If Rodney Stuckey starts at point guard, I view the matchup as being significantly worse.
Indiana
The Pacers mixed up their rotation last night as C.J. Watson and C.J. Miles entered the starting lineup. Miles ended up getting hurt in the game and did not return, but does hope to play tonight. Given the injuries they’ve been dealing with and the numerous rotations that they’ve used, it’s tough to put much weight into their team statistics or DVP rankings this season.
Elite Plays
C.J. Watson — As often is the case when a new player enters the starting lineup, Watson is going to provide great salary relief. Watson has reached at least 5x his salary on DK in every game that he’s played in this year.
Secondary Plays
Roy Hibbert — Hibbert has not looked the same since injuring his ankle a while back, and the returns of Stuckey and David West mean that Hibbert is not relied on much offensively. That said, Hibbert is worth a shot in a GPP tonight. Portland is 24th in the league against centers, and Lillard’s recklessness in driving to the basket will give Hibbert a chance at a few blocked shots.
Atlanta at Orlando
- Vegas Line – Orlando -3, 208 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Oladipo-Fournier-Harris-Frye-O’Quinn
| Atlanta | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 12.5 | Team Proj. | 15.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.07 | Team Pace | 94.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Victor Oladipo | Evan Fournier | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Kyle O’Quinn | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 29 | Opp. Season | 8 | 19 | 15 | 10 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 21 | 27 | 7 | 7 | |
Atlanta
Atlanta pushed their win streak to nine by beating the Magic last night in Atlanta. Now, they travel to Orlando for a quick rematch. The game last night was only very low-scoring because both teams shot under 40% from the field, so don’t expect to see such a low total tonight. Orlando struggles against point guards and centers, and that held true against the Hawks.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Al Horford — It looks to be the time to start comfortably using Horford in some lineups. He really struggled to start the season, but we’ve seen flashes of what he was last year in the last few games. Even if Vucevic plays, I like Horford’s chances of matching his performance against this same team last night.
Orlando
It appears that the Magic will finally get Nikola Vucevic back tonight for the rematch against Atlanta. Vucevic’s return to the lineup, even if he’s limited, would make it too tough to roster Kyle O’Quinn at his rising price anymore. Atlanta is average to above-average at defending all five positions this year, and with a new player being worked back into the rotation, this isn’t a team worth messing with much tonight.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo — Even though I do want to avoid the Magic tonight if Vucevic is back, I could see needing to find a mid-priced shooting guard and Oladipo being your best option. I wouldn’t be excited about it, but he’s somewhat safe since he’s being used as a point guard.
Brooklyn at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -3.5, 190.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Karasev-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Stephenson-Zeller-Jefferson
| Brooklyn | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190 |  | Vegas Total | 190 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.5 | Team Proj. | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.45 | Team Pace | 94.45 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Sergey Karasev | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Lance Stephenson | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 19 | Opp. Season | 25 | 28 | 16 | 27 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 18 | 9 | 30 | 2 | |
Brooklyn
Joe Johnson returned to the lineup last night as the Nets beat the Sixers in a game that only totaled 158 points. They go from facing one of the faster teams in pace to the Hornets, who are one of the slowest. Charlotte has been in the top ten at defending shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards. This isn’t a team that you’ll want a lot of exposure to.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Mason Plumlee — Plumlee took 14 shots last night en route to a double-double. This is a matchup that could see him get into foul trouble, but as a cheap GPP center, he makes for a solid play.
Charlotte
At the time of this writing, the Vegas lines have not been released for any games except Golden State at Dallas, but we know that this will be one of the lowest totals of the day based on how slow each team likes to play. Despite that, Brooklyn does have some holes in their defense that we can expose if we get the right price. On the injury front, Lance Stephenson hurt his thumb last night but was able to stay in the game.
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker — $7,300 on FanDuel, Walker will be defended by Deron Williams tonight. Walker went for 46.3 FD points in the double overtime game against the tough defense of Mike Conley and Memphis. He’s looked very good of late and can be used in cash games or GPP’s.
Secondary Plays
None
L.A. Clippers at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -5, 207.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Sanders
| L.A. Clippers | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.3 | Team Proj. | 101.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.11 | Team Pace | 96.24 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | O.J. Mayo | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Larry Sanders | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 17 | 28 | 5 | 27 | Opp. Season | 3 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 3 | 30 | 12 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 17 | 7 | 27 | 21 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers were finally shut down last night by Washington after winning nine straight. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin had their worst games in quite a while and will be looking to turn things around against a Milwaukee Bucks team whose strengths on defense are defending point guards and power forwards. Look for the complimentary players to shine.
Elite Plays
DeAndre Jordan — Jordan was another Clipper that struggled last night, but a matchup against the second-worst team against centers this season should cure that. Until last night, Jordan had been incredibly consistent and it was extremely rare to see him not reach double digits in rebounds. He played the fewest minutes of any Clipper starter last night and will be well rested for the game tonight.
J.J. Redick — If you’re willing to sacrifice the upside, then you should be using Redick in your cash games on DraftKings. His depressed price combined with the three-point bonus sees him reach the 5x value multiple regularly and it’s nice to get what has seemed to simply be guaranteed points lately.
Secondary Plays
None
Milwaukee
The Bucks are in the middle of a tough part in their schedule that sees them facing a slew of Western Conference playoff contenders. They are rarely a popular team to target and their players are very young and inconsistent. The high volatility and low ownership percentages can translate into good GPP winning plays in the right circumstances.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo / Jabari Parker — I’m grouping these two guys together because their prices and fantasy production are so similar. Both averaging 23.1 FD points and hovering just under $6,000, these are two players that have flashed incredible upside. I’d expect Brandon Knight to struggle with Chris Paul guarding him, leaving additional opportunities for the young wings on offense. Great GPP plays.