NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 27th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Toronto at L.A. Clippers
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -5, 212 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Ross-Johnson-Johnson-Valanciunas
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
| Toronto | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212 |  | Vegas Total | 212 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.5 | Team Proj. | 108.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.51 | Team Pace | 96.37 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Terrence Ross | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 23 | 13 | 20 | 18 | Opp. Season | 16 | 2 | 27 | 11 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 28 | 23 | 17 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 15 | 18 | 12 | 19 | |
Toronto
The Raptors are still being carried on the back of Kyle Lowry, but his matchup against Chris Paul doesn’t get much tougher. Look for the complimentary pieces to get more involved with the scoring responsibilities as Lowry has only averaged 9.25 actual points per game in his last two seasons against the Clippers. This is one of the higher over/unders of the day, so the scoring will come from someone.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Lou Williams — We should see a lot of Lou Williams versus Jamaal Crawford, a matchup that I think oddly will be the highlight of this game. Both guys like to shoot and neither care to play much defense. Pairing both in a GPP (if you can find one on the early slate) provides a lot of upside should it turn into a back-and-forth between the two, and both would see plenty of minutes in the case of a blowout.
Patrick Patterson — Here’s your high floor, low ceiling cash game salary saver at power forward today. In cash games it’s just as much about having the guy that won’t kill you (see: Kyle O’Quinn) as it is about anything else. Patterson is good for 20-25 points in a good matchup against this Clippers frontcourt.
L.A. Clippers
This is the second of nine games in a row at home for the Clippers. Toronto enters L.A. with the top record in the East despite the injury to DeMar DeRozan earlier this year. The Raptors have done pretty well against post players — not to the point that I’d talk you out of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan — but the guards are where we can find some value.
Elite Plays
Jamaal Crawford — It looks like Crawford has recovered from the elbow injury that he was struggling with earlier in the month, because in his last four games he’s been on fire. His price across the injury is deflated due to his struggles with the ruptured bursa sac in his shooting elbow and his subsequent battle on the court with it, so get him in before the price goes back up, especially on DraftKings for $4,700.
Chris Paul — Before his game on Christmas against Golden State, Paul had a five game stretch averaging 50+ DK points per game. Against the Warriors that surprisingly dropped to 42.75, but he was still aggressive by shooting the ball 18 times. If you watch him much, you know that Paul is aggressive against other top point guards, and with Kyle Lowry possibly an All-Star this year, this game won’t be an exception.
Secondary Plays
None
Boston at Washington
- Vegas Line – Washington -10, 200.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Zeller
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Boston | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.0 | Vegas Sprd | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 105.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.98 | Team Pace | 95.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Jeff Green | Jared Sullinger | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 1 | 21 | 2 | 7 | Opp. Season | 20 | 6 | 10 | 30 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 14 | 28 | 22 | 3 | |
Boston
The Celtics are really struggling to find point guard production since the Rondo trade, and while Marcus Smart appears to be the long-term solution, he hasn’t had much fantasy value at all. Brandan Wright was expected to get a boost in playing time moving from a contending team to a rebuilder, but has hardly seen court time. For the time being, most of the team should be avoided in cash games, but there’s a lot of upside largely due to their pace of play for use in a GPP.
Elite Plays
Kelly Olynyk — His price on DraftKings is too good. He’s averaging 5x his salary and has already posted a 48.75 fantasy point game against Washington this season — he also posted a 4.25 in another game against Washington, but that goes to show you that this is exactly the type of player we want in our GPP lineups: boom or bust.
Secondary Plays
Jeff Green — At only $6,000 on FanDuel, this is a matchup that Green can take advantage of. In two games against the Wizards already this season he’s averaging 26.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals which is well above the 30 FD points you would need for him to reach value.
Washington
The Wizards are projected to score one of the highest point totals of the night, and despite the large spread, this is a great team to target. They are at home playing the team ranked second in pace of play and are one of the teams that did not play last night. Boston is very poor at defending post players and have struggled against point guards, though the latter should improve with Rondo gone.
Elite Plays
John Wall — Wall always gets a slight bump at home, but the pace of play tonight really elevates him to one of the truly elite plays. The success that Wall has had against Boston (61.1 FPPG on DK in two games) is more attributed to the speed that these games are played at rather than specifically his matchup against Rondo in the past. Don’t expect 60 points from him since his numbers against Boston are slightly inflated because of a double overtime game, but you can reasonably project 50.
Paul Pierce — Pierce is one of my favorite plays across the industry. If you use the Daily Value Charts on RotoGrinders, you probably noticed that he rates out as the top play of the day when factoring his weighted fantasy points against his salary. Avery Bradley has done a good job of locking down Bradley Beal in previous meetings, freeing up Pierce for more scoring opportunities.
Secondary Plays
None
Orlando at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -6, 190.5 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-O’Quinn-Vucevic
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
| Orlando | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190 |  | Vegas Total | 190 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.3 | Team Proj. | 98.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.82 | Team Pace | 94.44 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Kyle O’Quinn | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 17 | Opp. Season | 26 | 8 | 23 | 15 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 22 | 12 | 6 | 16 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 5 | 29 | 14 | 30 | |
Orlando
This is one of the least attractive games of the slate with both teams ranked near the bottom of the rankings in pace of play. When targeting players against Charlotte, you immediately want to think point guard with how poor Kemba Walker has been defending the position, but with Orlando slotting Elfrid Payton into the starting lineup, you’re left without any reliable DvP targets.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kyle O’Quinn — My favorite type of player to target in a GPP is a player that burned people his last time out. O’Quinn was one of the highest-owned players on most sites and finished with zero points and zero rebounds. That and his total of sixteen minutes will scare a lot of people off of him, but we should see him go back to around 25 minutes with 30+ point upside.
Charlotte
Al Jefferson did play through his groin injury Friday, but struggled with four points and seven rebounds in only 22 minutes. Kemba Walker added only six points and two assists in the blowout loss to Oklahoma City. The benefit for our purposes when a team gets blown out on the front end of a back-to-back is that we don’t have fatigue concerns with the starters, but the problem is that this matchup against Orlando isn’t great.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — MKG matches up against Tobias Harris tonight, who had the tough task of guarding LeBron James last night. Harris played a grueling 38 minutes against LeBron and his conditioning will certainly be challenged here. The nature of Kidd-Gilchrist’s game is best suited for GPPs, but his low price tag gives him a good chance at reaching high multiples in return value.
Memphis at Miami
- Vegas Line – Memphis -3, 192 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Leuer-Gasol
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-Deng-Williams-Andersen
| Memphis | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.5 | Team Proj. | 94.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.72 | Team Pace | 91.73 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Jon Leuer | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Mario Chalmers | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Shawne Williams | Chris Andersen | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 28 | Opp. Season | 2 | 24 | 11 | 17 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 9 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 27 | 27 | 5 | 11 | |
Memphis
If you thought Orlando and Charlotte were going to play a slow game, this one projects to be a crawl. Miami is ranked dead last in pace of play with Memphis only three spots above them. Memphis is one of the best teams in the league and they are very proud of their defense. Tony Allen is back from his eye injury, though Zach Randolph missed last night’s game due to a sore knee.
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol — Gasol gets a boost due to higher usage if Randolph sits, but remains a good play if he doesn’t. He’s priced cheaper on FanDuel than on DraftKings, making him a great play there against one of the worst teams against centers in the league. His 4x + 5 multiple that RG tools use to project cash game plays would be at 41 points; a total that he has exceeded in each of his last three games.
Secondary Plays
Tayshaun Prince — This play relies on a few things: Zach Randolph being ruled out, Chris Bosh being ruled out, and… some guts. The game script from last night saw Dwight Howard in foul trouble leading to the Grizzlies preferring a smaller lineup often with Prince (who played one fewer minute than Jon Leuer and Kosta Koufos combined). Miami lacks size up front if Bosh is ruled out, so I’ll be comfortable with Prince as a $3,000 punt on DK if Randolph is also ruled out.
Miami
Chris Bosh went through shootaround on Friday and is hoping that he’ll be able to play tonight, but the analysis below is assuming that he’s out. Reason being is that nobody is a good play if he suits up, but there can be value found if he sits. Luol Deng has played well over the last week or so, but in my opinion his recent numbers are inflated due to two revenge games in which he had maybe his best games of the season — against Cleveland and Chicago.
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade — Again, this is written early in the morning so it’s unclear whether Bosh will play or not, but if he sits then Wade is a great play. Some will shy away because of Tony Allen, but James Harden’s success last night against the Grizzlies and their poor DvP against shooting guards this year should give you enough confidence to roster Wade in a situation like this where he is relied on so heavily.
Secondary Plays
Chris Anderson — If you need a cheap center on FD with a high floor and are willing to sacrifice some upside, the price is right on Anderson. He has done well with his minutes recently, including the 29+ fantasy point game that he had on Christmas against Cleveland. He won’t play much more than 20 minutes, but his ability to contribute with blocks and steals keeps his floor high despite the lack of minutes.
New Orleans at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -9.5, 203 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Babbitt-Davis-Asik
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| New Orleans | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.8 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.09 | Team Pace | 95.98 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Tyreke Evans | Luke Babbitt | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 3 | 24 | 8 | 26 | Opp. Season | 21 | 11 | 28 | 4 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 26 | 5 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans are a game out of a playoff spot in the Western Conference and will likely need to improve on their road record (6-10) if they are going to sneak in. They head to Chicago to face a Bulls team that is tied with Memphis in defensive efficiency (101.9). This is a homecoming for Anthony Davis and I’m sure we’ll hear reports later about how many friends and family are in attendance.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis — Davis started his high school career in Chicago as a sub six foot tall guard that chucked up threes from the corner. This is his first game back in Chicago as a pro, and he’s going to be aggressive in showing the type of player that he has grown into. While this is certainly the narrative play of the day, we’ve also seen big power forwards (LaMarcus Aldridge is one that comes to mind) have great games against Pau Gasol.
Secondary Plays
Jrue Holiday — Derrick Rose’s knees only play offense now apparently. Kirk Hinrich (questionable to play) is the only point guard on the Bulls’ roster that puts much effort into defense which has led to Chicago being one of the best teams to attack with point guards. Holiday has 50 fantasy point upside and has flashed it twice within the last couple weeks in what were similarly good matchups against Dallas and Golden State.
Chicago
The Bulls should be regulars in your cash game lineups with what they’ve been priced at and how they’ve produced at those prices. Injuries have led to some discounts and predictability in the front court, but Jimmy Butler has really made some people a lot of money this year. Derrick Rose is actually at a point where he too is getting regular minutes and paying off his recent salaries on most sites.
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler — Butler figures to be guarded by Tyreke Evans tonight, a guard that has the size and athleticism to guard him, but that usually lacks the desire and effort required on the defensive end. Butler has paid off 5x his salary on DraftKings in six of his last seven games and can be had at what I consider to be at least a $1,000 discount.
Secondary Plays
Derrick Rose — The most encouraging thing about Rose is that we’re starting to see his minutes tick up as the season progresses. He appears to be a lock for 30 minutes tonight, and if that’s the case, it would be hard to imagine him not reaching the 35 DK point mark that you’d expect if you were rostering him in your cash games. New Orleans ranks in the bottom third in the NBA against point guards, so I’m betting he gets there.