NBA Grind Down: Saturday February 1st Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-01 19:13:30

All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article

Milwaukee at Memphis

Vegas Line – Memphis -12.5, 181 Over/Under
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Antetokounmpo-Middleton-Ilyasova-Henson
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol

Milwaukee

The Grizzlies continue to establish their pace of play on the entire NBA. Since Marc Gasol return to the lineup, the Grizzlies haven’t allowed a single opponent to score over 95 points. That’s 9 straight games of shut down defense. Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. I would like to recommend avoiding the Grizzlies altogether tonight, but with John Henson out, I think Larry Sanders makes a pretty decent play even in a tough matchup.

Memphis

The Grizzlies are facing a team that plays at a similar pace as they do. The total for this game is set at 181 points which is by far the lowest of the night. Not only that, but the Grizzlies are 12 point favorites and this game has blowout written all over it. I think Sanders is the only play tonight in this game, and he is a risky play himself.

Chicago at New Orleans

Vegas Line – Chicago -1.5, 183 Over/Under
Chicago Proj. Starters – Augustin-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Stiemsma

Chicago

The Bulls take on the Pelicans in what is expected to be a very low scoring game. Both of these teams play at a pace well below the league average. The Pelicans have struggled against two positions all season long, PG’s and Centers. With Kirk Hinrich back, I don’t love D.J. Augustin tonight, but he could still make a nice play if his price is low enough.

Joakim Noah – This game has Noah written all over it. He will be matched up with the slower Stiemsma and the skinnier Ajinca. He should be able to dominate both ends of the floor. Noah almost put up a triple double in his last outing, but this game I think he posts a 15/15/5 type of line.

New Orleans

The Pelicans have a rough matchup tonight. The Bulls play at one of the slowest paces in the league and rank 11th or better against every position on the floor. You could go the route of Anthony Davis, but I would much rather have Kevin Love in that price range. Much more upside for Love in his matchup against the Hawks. With 11 other games on the schedule, you don’t need to spend too much time looking at the Pelicans.

Sacramento at San Antonio

Vegas Line – San Antonio -10.5, 206.5 Over/Under
Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-Thornton-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Mills-Belinelli-Diaw-Duncan

Sacramento

We have a lot of potential blowout games tonight. This will be one of those nights where you have to avoid those land mines in your lineup. If you can construct a team that avoids all of the blowouts, you should have a great chance of cashing. The Kings are double-digit underdogs against my least favorite team to see as a big favorite: the Spurs. If DeMarcus Cousins sits out tonight’s game, I think this game is over early.

San Antonio

The Spurs have a nice matchup, but you have to remember who their coach is. Coach Pop builds his team in order to win in the postseason, he could care less about padding his player’s stats by giving them big minutes, especially if they are up or down big. The one play that I would consider here is Marco Belinelli, but he’s a risk almost as much as the veterans Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. If this game was played in Sacramento, it might be a different story.

Miami at New York

Vegas Line – Miami -5, 203 Over/Under
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Smith-Anthony-Chandler

Miami

The Heat are 5 point favorites tonight against the Knicks in a game that means much more to the Knicks than it does the Heat. The Knicks have started to play better of late and a win against the two-time defending champs could really be the turning point that they have been waiting for. I expect this game to be very competitive and a little higher scoring than you might expect. As always, you need to keep your eye out for Dwyane Wade, he is basically going to be a game-time decision for the rest of the season.

LeBron James – Assuming Wade plays, LeBron is the only player that I’m high on. If Wade sits, that would change a few things, but let’s just assume that he will play. LeBron in MSG is never a bad thing. Him and Melo always put on a show when they face off. I think you can count on him for his typical 45+ fantasy point performance.

New York

The Knicks have won 4 straight and will be looking at this game as a chance to turn their season around. They are going to leave everything out on the floor tonight. Iman Shumpert is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game. While I don’t like him as a fantasy option, his absence would give a huge boost to J.R. Smith. Smith would be one of my favorite plays tonight if he is in the starting lineup. I also like Tyson Chandler here, he has been very consistent and will have a major height size and strength advantage over Bosh down low.

Carmelo Anthony – Melo has been great at home all season long where he is averaging close to 45 fantasy points per game. He has also been good against LeBron in his career. Melo seems to relish playing against the best player in the world. Don’t be surprised to see Melo put up 40+ actual points tonight.

Charlotte at Phoenix

Vegas Line – Phoenix -8.5, 204.5 Over/Under
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Sessions-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee

Charlotte

Once again, we have another game with the potential for a blowout. Of all of the games with high lines, I see this game staying closer than the others. The Bobcats have only lost 1 game by double-digit point in their last 11 games. Most of that has to do with the stellar play of Al Jefferson. Kemba Walker was considering making his return during this road trip, but he was ruled out early yesterday and I doubt he will give it a go tonight. Ramon Sessions has a favorable matchup and makes a nice punt option at PG on sites where his price is still low.

Al Jefferson – Hopefully everyone that read the Grind Down yesterday listened to me when I told them to take Big Al. He ended up with 72 fantasy points. Big Al is averaging 27 shot attempts over his last 3 games. With Walker out, the Bobcats are feeding the big man in the post and he is really responding well. Keep taking him tonight.

Phoenix

The Suns have a pretty solid matchup tonight against the Bobcats who have been very average defensively this season. The Bocbats only have one DvP ranking in the top 10 and that is against the PF position. I like Goran Dragic once again and I think Gerald Green makes an interesting GPP play. With so many other options, they probably aren’t my top plays of the night, but Dragic should at least be considered for cash games.