NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 10th - Page Two
Milwaukee at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -7.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-O’Bryant-Pachulia
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Hinrich-Butler-Gasol-Noah
| Milwaukee | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.50 | Team Proj. | 101.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.71 | Team Pace | 96.16 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Johnny O’Bryant | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Kirk Hinrich | Jimmy Butler | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 29 | Opp. Season | 14 | 16 | 27 | 2 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 17 | 26 | 20 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 10 | 28 | 2 | 11 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks rank 7th in field goal percentage and 4th in defensive efficiency. Their weakness is turnovers; their 16.4 per game puts them 28th in the league in that category. They face a Bulls team with deceptive DvP rankings. With Dunleavy out, keep in mind that their best defender (Jimmy Butler) is now guarding small forwards.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Brandon Knight — I don’t love the matchup for the Bucks, but I have no problem using players against Derrick Rose. Chicago is ranked 23rd against point guards and Knight flirted with a triple-double against the Bulls earlier this season. He is best suited for a GPP lineup but is the safest Buck for cash games.
Chicago
Chicago came out of the gates slowly against Washington last night and never recovered. That’s now back-to-back losses of 20 points or more, so they will be very motivated to right the ship here at home against Milwaukee. The Bucks have done very well against power forwards but allow a lot of fantasy points to small forwards and centers.
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler — Butler finished 2-12 from the field last night with a +/- of -29. It was one of his worst games of the season and I expect a big bounce-back game tonight. The Bucks don’t have any wing defenders capable of stopping Butler and the one thing we know we’ll always get out of him is minutes. Even in a 26 point loss last night, he played 36 minutes.
Secondary Plays
None
Utah at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -11.5, 196 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
| Utah | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.50 | Vegas Sprd | -11.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.25 | Team Proj. | 103.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.43 | Team Pace | 97.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 12 | 21 | 17 | 9 | Opp. Season | 7 | 13 | 17 | 25 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 3 | 24 | 23 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 26 | 24 | 11 | 4 | |
Utah
Utah has to feel pretty good about their start to this tough three-game road trip. They beat the Bulls by 20 and were in it until the end against the Thunder last night. This matchup against Houston will be another tough test, but if they hold true to recent form, it should be a good game to watch and, of course, to target players in for fantasy.
Elite Plays
Gordon Hayward — Last night’s 27-point game against Oklahoma City marked the third very productive game in a row for Hayward, with 34+ fantasy points in each. He is only 1-14 from three-point range in that span, so expect him to turn that around soon. Houston has been weakest against small forwards and is ranked 20th against the position.
Secondary Plays
Elijah Millsap — The newly-signed brother of Paul Millsap has seen a minutes increase in three consecutive games now. He was very impressive against the Thunder last night with 20 DK points in 30 minutes. He is $3,000 on DK and can be a serviceable punt play if you’re trying to go stars and scrubs with a GPP lineup.
Houston
Houston ranks 7th in pace of play and should be the ones controlling the tempo at home. They are only behind Golden State in defensive efficiency and are 5th in both rebounding rate and opponent field goal percentage. Utah has been solid defensively themselves, and power forwards are the only position that they’ve struggled with as a whole.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Donatas Motiejunas — In the blowout in New York, Motiejunas scored 17 points with 7 rebounds and 4 steals. Josh Smith didn’t look right in that game and had some people wondering whether he was hurt or sick. It’s apparent that he’s just in a funk. His two points and one rebound were evidence of that. Motiejunas should see more minutes if Smith continues to struggle.
Dwight Howard — His price continues to drop, making it more and more tempting to throw him in a lineup. Tonight, I’ll bite. There are a lot of good options at center so you’ll be able to get Howard at a very low ownership rate in a tournament. This matchup is tough and his recent game logs are somewhat discouraging, but he did have his season-high in rebounds two games ago and looked good in the blowout against the Knicks despite only being needed for 24 minutes.
San Antonio at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -9.5, 202 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Belinelli-Duncan-Splitter
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – LaVine-Wiggins-Muhammad-Young-Dieng
| San Antonio | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105.75 | Team Proj. | 96.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.16 | Team Pace | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Marco Belinelli | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | Proj Starter | Zach LaVine | Andrew Wiggins | Shabazz Muhammad | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 22 | 29 | 16 | 25 | Opp. Season | 19 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 28 | |
San Antonio
First things first, this is the back-end of a back-to-back for the Spurs, so keep an eye out for potential scratches. That said, the Spurs are playing up in pace today in Minnesota, and if some value plays opened up they would likely be good options. Manu Ginobili didn’t play the second half last night because of back spasms, and Tony Parker and Tim Duncan both played under 25 minutes.
Elite Plays
Danny Green — If you use the 5x multiple for cash games on DraftKings and buy into their DvP rankings, then I don’t see how you don’t roster Green. He is averaging 27.2 fantasy points for $5,500 against a DvP that shows Minnesota ranked 30th against shooting guards. If Ginobili misses this game, Green would seem safe for 35 minutes.
Secondary Plays
None
Minnesota
This isn’t a game that I will be rostering many Timberwolves from. San Antonio is one of the better defensive teams in the league and is average to above-average at defending every position except power forwards. The last time these two teams met, the Spurs won by 22 points. The time before that, they won by 29 points. This game could get ugly quickly.
Elite Plays
Andrew Wiggins — There are a couple of things really benefiting Wiggins right now. One, he is getting a ton of minutes since Corey Brewer was traded, regularly seeing 40 minutes or more. Secondly, he is playing with a ton of confidence and is starting to be more aggressive. Many will just keep plugging him in until he cools off and I can’t argue with that at this point.
Secondary Plays
None
Orlando at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -12.5, 194 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-O’Quinn-Vucevic
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Kaman
| Orlando | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.50 | Vegas Sprd | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | 90.75 | Team Proj. | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.75 | Team Pace | 96.58 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Kyle O’Quinn | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Chris Kaman | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 5 | 23 | 4 | 18 | Opp. Season | 28 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 23 | 17 | 13 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 1 | 11 | 29 | 8 | |
Orlando
The Magic score the third-fewest points in the league, they have the third-worst rebounding rate in the league, and they just lost to the Lakers by 17 last night. Things aren’t looking great, yet they are only 3.5 games out of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. After seeing basically their whole team fail to reach value against the Lakers (29th in defensive efficiency), it’s hard to recommend anyone against Portland (3rd in defensive efficiency).
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tobias Harris — I don’t love him, but I always gravitate towards him on FanDuel with his high floor and the need to roster two small forwards.
Portland
While I don’t put much weight into blowout potential, it’s hard to imagine there’s any way that Orlando keeps this one close. With Orlando’s dead-last rank against centers and Chris Kaman’s low tag, he will likely be a popular play. He’s not a player that they like to give many minutes to though, and I don’t think they will need him much tonight.
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard — Check to make sure that he’s still good to play after picking up a small injury earlier in the week, but I feel good about the matchup for Lillard here. Everyone talks about how different guys are matchup-proof, but rarely do you hear a very good player labelled as matchup dependent. That’s how I see Lillard. Go through his game logs to see that he does well against teams that are bad at defending point guards and poorly against teams that defend the position well. It sounds obvious, but it’s not always so straightforward.
Meyers Leonard — I’ll take Leonard for $3,000 on DK over Chris Kaman at $4,600. With nobody else to turn to after Joel Freeland injured his shoulder, the Blazers need to rely on Leonard for around 20 minutes per game. In a blowout, I could see him playing upwards of 30 minutes against a team that is the worst in the league against centers.
Secondary Plays
None