NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 17th - Page Two
Portland at Memphis – 9:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Memphis -4, 199.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Kaman
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Udrih-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Portland | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | 199 | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | 101.75 | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.61 | Team Pace | 94.21 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Chris Kaman | Proj Starter | Beno Udrih | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 22 | 22 | 4 | 2 | Opp. Season | 19 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 20 | 27 | 10 | 23 | |
Portland
This is another great matchup on the slate tonight which pits two top points per game defenses against each other in Memphis. It has a total of 196 and should stay close throughout as the Grizzlies are only two-point favorites as well. There are a few question marks on the Memphis side today which impacts the value of the Trail Blazers as well.
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard – If Conley is out again, Lillard makes for the top play on the Blazers. Udrih or Calathes will pose no threat to Lillard to drive and get open shots. If Conley does play, I would rather slide over to the cheaper options at point guard.
Secondary Plays
Chris Kaman – Tonight lacks the value options at the center position. I do not trust Kaman a whole lot tonight, but if you need to save at the position, he looks like the best option.
LaMarcus Aldridge – He is the most expensive PF on a night where there are a number of just as good, cheaper options in better matchups. I would not hate on a lineup that has him in it, but I would rather use some of other options at the position.
Memphis
The absence of Conley did not hurt the Grizzlies last night as Udrih and Jeff Green stepped up in his absence. Conley’s injury does open up some intriguing cheap plays, so keep an eye on news prior to the game. Hopefully, we get a report early in the night.
Elite Plays
Beno Udrih – Udrih is clearly only in play if Conley is out, but makes a very nice play if that does happen. He played just under 30 minutes and posted 15 points and five assists, which is good production for nearly minimum salary.
Secondary Plays
Zach Randolph – Since returning from injury, Randolph has scored, 35, 43, 50 and 29 fantasy points four games. He makes a very good GPP option on the sites where his price dropped during the injury.
Minnesota at Denver – 9:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Denver -11.5, 212 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Wiggins-Budinger-Young-Dieng
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
| Minnesota | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212 |  | Vegas Total | 212 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.50 | Vegas Sprd | -11.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.25 | Team Proj. | 111.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.34 | Team Pace | 98.77 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Andrew Wiggins | Chase Budinger | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 23 | 14 | 24 | 28 | Opp. Season | 29 | 25 | 30 | 26 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 1 | 28 | 20 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 25 | |
Minnesota
Minnesota has been one of the worst defensive teams in the league recently and it has resulted in some huge over/unders. They have managed to keep games relatively close, so it has given us some decent fantasy performances from some of their starters. Denver is not a good defensive team and has given up 103 points per game, which ranks 25th in the league.
Elite Plays
Mo Williams – Mo backed up that 60 point performance with a another quality game last night. His price is way too cheap to be ignored tonight as he has a great match up with Lawson. This game will be up and down and Williams makes for my favorite cheap PG tonight.
Gorgui Dieng – Another tried and true fantasy rule is take a good big man against the Nuggets. Dieng fits that bill tonight as he has been getting 30-35 minutes per game and should easily reach value against the inside defense of the Nuggets.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins – The price is getting a bit high, but he is extremely consistent and should be a lock for 30 points tonight. His minutes are locked in and he’s shouldering the offensive load for a bad Timberwolves team.
Denver
Denver had a rough go of it last night against the Mavericks in a game we thought would be very high scoring. Tonight, the projected total is 212 with the Nuggets being 12-point favorites. This makes the Nuggets the highest projected scoring team of the night against the Wolves and their last-in-the-league defense.
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson – Before last night, Lawson had been playing some great basketball. Even with his poor shooting he still was able to put up 36 fantasy points. He has another great matchup tonight against an aging Williams and should be able to get back on track.
Secondary Plays
J.J. Hickson – He is still really cheap across the industry and is getting guaranteed minutes off the bench. He looks to be getting about 25 fantasy points per game in his new role, which definitely provides a solid return on investment at his price.
Arron Afflalo – There are not a whole lot of cheap SG options tonight, but Afflalo is cheap, and he’s getting close to 40 minutes per game. The minutes and pace of this game should lead to about a 25-point fantasy game for Afflalo.
Kenneth Faried – Faried dominated this Wolves squad for 26 points and 25 rebounds in December. And while that level of dominance will not happen again, Faried continues to have a very high ceiling for the Nuggets.
L.A. Clippers at Sacramento – 10:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line –
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Williams-Thompson-Cousins
| L.A. Clippers | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210 |  | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.75 | Team Proj. | 102.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.52 | Team Pace | 96.81 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Derrick Williams | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 27 | 7 | 19 | 25 | Opp. Season | 5 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 19 | 9 | 26 | 18 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers just lost at home to LeBron and the Cavs. This does not bode well for the Kings as the Clippers will be looking to rebound big time from that loss. The Kings are in the bottom third of the league in team defense and the total of this game is set at 209. Vegas thinks this game should be pretty close as the Clippers are only seven-point favorites.
Elite Plays
Chris Paul – The Kings really lack any defenders at the point guard position and Chris Paul should be able to take advantage of that. They are 23rd in the league at defending the PG position and Paul makes an interesting play tonight as many will be off of him due to all the value picks available tonight.
Blake Griffin -Blake is coming off a huge performance last night against the Cavs. The Kings have a very poor inside defense that Griffin should be able to perform well against. He makes for my favorite expensive PF option tonight.
Secondary Plays
Matt Barnes – Barnes is very cheap, and he is putting up consistent minutes and numbers for this Clippers squad. The injury to Gay will give Barnes a bit of a break on defense and offense. To hit value, Barnes needs only 20 points or so, which he should be able to get to tonight.
Sacramento
The big news we are waiting for tonight is the availability of Rudy Gay, and at this point, he is questionable to play. If he sits out, Derrick Williams should get another start and becomes a top value play across the industry. The match up will be hard enough with Gay tonight though, as the Clippers will be coming to town.
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins – There is not a whole lot more to say about Cousins. He has a prime matchup tonight against the Clippers, who allow big fantasy games to opposing centers and he is also on a hot streak at the moment. I am a bit worried about a blowout, but the fact that the game is at home, should keep it a bit closer.
Derrick Williams – If Rudy Gay is out, Williams is an easy call to make. He is very cheap and will get a bunch of minutes in Gay’s absence.
Secondary Plays
None