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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 3rd

by JeffElJefe Last Updated 2015-01-06 00:00:32

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.

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Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Charlotte at Orlando

Charlotte Orlando
charlottenba Vegas Total 187 orlandonba Vegas Total 187
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 92.0 Team Proj. 95.5
Team Pace 94.89 Team Pace 94.58
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kemba Walker Gerald Henderson Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Cody Zeller Bismack Biyombo Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Tobias Harris Kyle O’Quinn Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 28 10 19 12 30 Opp. Season 24 21 5 7 15
Opp. Last 7 17 13 10 9 24 Opp. Last 7 2 30 18 14 17

Charlotte

After trying to play through a groin injury, Al Jefferson ended up needing to shut things down for a while. While a guy like Cody Zeller is an obvious beneficiary, there is also a big scoring void that will need to be filled in Big Al’s absence. We’ve seen Gerald Henderson relied on a lot more as a mid-range shooter, but Kemba Walker likely has a big game coming soon.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker — There have been mixed results with Walker while Jefferson has been hurt, with last night on the disappointing side of things. The reasoning for playing him hasn’t changed though, and if you thought he was a good play yesterday, he’s an even better play today against the 28th-ranked team against point guards.

Gerald Henderson — Gary Neal is back, but that shouldn’t hurt Henderson for now; he’s been playing too well. Henderson can’t shoot very well from outside, but they use him in one on one situations that usually result in a baseline jumper or finish at the rim.

Cody Zeller — His last three games have been solid, but we’re also able to refer to earlier in the year where he got substantial minutes to reaffirm his value for his price right now. I wouldn’t rely on him for upside, and he’s not one of the top guys to target tonight, but feel comfortable plugging him in when needed.

Orlando

Both Orlando and Charlotte are slow-paced teams and the 188 over/under suggests that this game will be ugly. Both teams are good sources for value plays right now though, so a little exposure to this game might be needed. Charlotte has been poor at defending guards and that’s exactly where the value is on Orlando right now.

Elite Plays

Elfrid Payton — Payton nearly had a triple-double last night with 16 points, 10 assists, and 9 rebounds. He played against Charlotte a week ago and flirted with a triple-double there as well. I’ve been targeting point guards matched up against Kemba Walker for a while now, and tonight that trend will continue.

Secondary Plays

Victor Oladipo — On DraftKings, Oladipo is $5,600. In my opinion, that’s too cheap for the talent that he possesses. His protective mask is off now, and I think we’ll see his production and price jump soon here.

Boston at Chicago

Boston Chicago
bostonnba Vegas Total 206 chicagonba Vegas Total 206
Vegas Sprd 11.5 Vegas Sprd -11.5
Team Proj. 97.5 Team Proj. 109.0
Team Pace 100.12 Team Pace 95.84
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Evan Turner Avery Bradley Jeff Green Jared Sullinger Tyler Zeller Proj Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Mike Dunleavy Pau Gasol Joakim Noah
Opp. Season 25 2 22 14 24 Opp. Season 22 6 15 27 26
Opp. Last 7 7 5 19 27 9 Opp. Last 7 22 8 24 4 26

Boston

The Celtics lost last night in Rajon Rondo’s return to Boston and gave up 119 points in the process. Their pace of play — trailing only Golden State — often leads to very fantasy relevant games. The worry with this one is that in traveling to Chicago for the back end of a back-to-back, there is quite a bit of blowout risk, as is evident by the double digit spread.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

None

Chicago

Blowout or not, the Bulls’ starters usually get their minutes anyway, so the bump in pace is very attractive here. The Celtics are slowly starting to see their defense versus opposing point guards improve since the Rondo trade, but using power forwards and centers against them continues to be a profitable strategy.

Elite Plays

Editor’s Note: Jimmy Butler has been ruled out for today’s game, according to the Bulls’ official Twitter account.

Jimmy Butler — He is about as reliable as they come; he is matchup-proof and plays more minutes than anyone in the league. He’s a cash game dream. The pace of this game sets up well for Butler and he’s in line for one of his big scoring nights.

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol — The frontcourt is healthy now for the Bulls, but while the value of Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, and Nikola Mirotic has dropped, Gasol can still be trusted. Boston is weakest against power forwards, so Gasol has a good chance to reach value in cash games.

Miami at Houston

Miami Houston
miaminba Vegas Total 196 houstonnba Vegas Total 196
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 94.3 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 91.63 Team Pace 97.73
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mario Chalmers Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Chris Andersen Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Josh Smith Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 4 14 20 15 14 Opp. Season 8 30 4 1 29
Opp. Last 7 9 21 17 15 20 Opp. Last 7 12 23 5 5 22

Miami

The recent return of Chris Bosh hurts the value of nearly everyone else on Miami. It’s tough to play pretty much anyone on the team until the prices his return to the lineup returns the rest of his teammate’s prices back to normal levels. What’s worse is this matchup for them. Houston is fourth in the league in opponent adjusted field goal percentage at 47.4%. Their defense isn’t in the bottom ten against any position.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

None

Houston

Houston got blown out by the Pelicans last night and now has to face a fairly healthy and rested Heat squad. Miami is dead last in the league in pace of play, making this a game that I’m avoiding for the most part. Dwight Howard hasn’t reached 30 minutes in any of the last three games and Josh Smith has been horrible since moving to the starting lineup.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

None

Utah at Minnesota

Utah Minnesota
utahnba Vegas Total 199 minnesotanba Vegas Total 199
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 98.5
Team Pace 92.62 Team Pace 98.79
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Trey Burke Ian Clark Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj Starter Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Shabazz Muhammad Thaddeus Young Gorgui Dieng
Opp. Season 16 24 29 21 20 Opp. Season 7 11 12 26 3
Opp. Last 7 16 12 27 24 5 Opp. Last 7 4 16 15 16 15

Utah

Utah is in trouble right now. First Alec Burks went down, then Rodney Hood was ruled out with a heel injury, and his replacement (Patrick Christopher) dislocated his kneecap in the first five minutes of last night’s game. We’ve expected Trey Burke to take these games over with nobody else to turn to, but he has disappointed for the most part. Against the Hawks last night, he went 2-19 from the field and 0-11 from the arc.

Elite Plays

Trey Burke — Despite the recent struggles, Burke actually had one very nice game recently; it was two games ago against these same Timberwolves. He managed 39.8 FD points, which is more than 7x his current salary. The upside in this matchup has proven to be there, but I will likely limit my exposure to him to strictly FanDuel GPPs.

Secondary Plays

Dante Exum / Joe Ingles — These are your value plays with the recent injuries. Both should see 20+ minutes moving forward and are at or near the minimum everywhere. If they take the leash off Exum, he would have incredible upside.

Minnesota

This game against Utah should be competitive, but Utah is one of the best teams in the league at slowing the game to a halt. They are also ranked third in rebounding rate and are above average at defending every position except power forwards. There are a couple Timberwolves that you can play right now, but they play the same position.

Elite Plays

Andrew Wiggins — 40 minutes in consecutive games has lead to incredible production from Wiggins. He has scored 21 or more actual points in four of his last five games. In his last game against Sacramento, he was good for 45.8 FD points, and likely won some GPPs for people.

Secondary Plays

Shabazz Muhammad — Both Wiggins and Muhammad are cheaper on FanDuel than on DraftKings right now, and despite failing to reach value in three of his last four games, Muhammad is in play there tonight. The game that he did reach value in was against the Jazz where he had 30 points, 7 rebounds, and a season-high five three-pointers for 42.4 FD points.

Washington at San Antonio

Washington San Antonio
washingtonnba Vegas Total 204 sanantonionba Vegas Total 204
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 96.07 Team Pace 95.27
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Paul Pierce Nene Hilario Marcin Gortat Proj Starter Cory Joseph Marco Belinelli Danny Green Tim Duncan Tiago Splitter
Opp. Season 15 5 9 25 10 Opp. Season 6 1 27 2 4
Opp. Last 7 10 10 20 17 14 Opp. Last 7 11 9 30 11 7

Washington

Bradley Beal was able to play through his toe injury last night and perform very well. In his second game in as many nights, however, there is some concern that he could aggravate the injury. Nene Hilario is also playing through a sore ankle. The Wizards’ match up against a team with plenty of injury issues themselves — the Spurs.

Elite Plays

John Wall — This certainly feels like a game that Wall will take control of. I mentioned Beal’s toe injury that didn’t seem to bother him last night, but I’d be surprised if his workload was as heavy here tonight against a team that is ranked fifth against shooting guards. Power forwards and point guards do well against the Spurs, but with Nene Hilario and Kris Humphries sharing minutes, I’d much prefer the point guard route.

Secondary Plays

None

San Antonio

I’m probably not touching any Spurs tonight. The Wizards are top five at defending every position except small forward. The return of Patty Mills makes the backcourt situation more confusing and the matchup is too tough for me to want to target Tim Duncan. Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard are already both ruled out.

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

None

NBA Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

About the Author

JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe

Working in the Fantasy Sports industry since 2012, Jeff has witnessed Daily Fantasy Sports from every angle: business, content, and as a player. He’s been featured in the New York Times, the L.A. Times, numerous books including Dan Barbarisi’s “Dueling with Kings”, and numerous documentaries including Jason Baumgardner’s “Perfect Lineup”.

On the business side he worked with several startup operators in direct competition with FanDuel and DraftKings. Jeff brought a player’s perspective to the product side of things and was innovative with new features that you see the bigger sites now implementing today.

Content has always been a passion for him, so the opportunity to write for RotoGrinders early in his career was something to jump at. Jeff hosted popular shows for MLB, NBA, and NFL content and often focused on teaching a contrarian approach long before it was cool to do so.

Jeff’s run as a player has been capped off by what many refer to as the best year in DFS tournament history. A baseball live final win (DK), a football Million dollar score, and 2 2nd place finishes in FD live finals.

You can follow Jeff on Twitter: @JeffKCollins