NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 4th Page Two
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L.A.Clippers at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -5.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Belinelli-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
L.A.Clippers
The Clippers took a bit hit last night as Chris Paul suffered a dislocated shoulder and is now expected to miss at least a few weeks. That means that Darren Collison will have to step up his game and take over this offense. Collison should be played on all sites across the board tonight. Collison and Jack are my top two value plays.
It will be interesting to see if this Clippers team can stay afloat without Paul. Both DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin rely on Paul to create offense for them and I think this will be a really nice test for them. They both have a tough matchup tonight and I’m going to use a wait and see approach with them to see how they play without Paul in the lineup.
San Antonio
The Spurs are in a good spot tonight, but the line in this game has actually moved up to -9 since the Paul injury. This game could be a blowout as the Clippers have not had to play without Paul for quite some time and it may take a couple of games for them to start to click offensively. The matchup really lines up well for Tim Duncan though and I think you can use him on sites where his price is affordable.
Milwaukee at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Antetokounmpo-Middleton-Ilyasova-Sanders
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
Milwaukee
The Bucks travel to Phoenix to take on the Suns who are 11-5 at home this season. Couple that with the fact that the Bucks are only 4-13 on the road and you can see where I’m headed with this. I’d like to think that the Bucks can keep this game competitive, but this is their third straight game on the road and I think it will take it’s toll eventually. Brandon Knight and the Alphabet both make decent plays on a few sites, but Sanders is the top play here.
- Larry Sanders – Sanders has really stepped up since Henson went down with his injury. He has averaged over 40 FP’s per game in the last two and makes a solid play against the Suns who have been very average this season at defending the paint.
Phoenix
The Suns will be without Eric Bledsoe tonight. He will be out for at least a week. This gives a huge fantasy boost to both Goran Dragic and Gerald Green. While the Bucks have been solid at defending those two positions, the fact that they will be required to do more offensively outweighs the tough matchup. Don’t be afraid to take them tonight.
The Suns big men still have me puzzled. While I like the upside of Miles Plumlee, his minutes have been way too inconsistent for my liking. In his last 5 games he has played 31, 18, 32, 21, and 35 minutes. I like the matchup, but will probably only use him in GPP’s.
Philadelphia at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -12.5, 225.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Turner-Thompson-Young-Hawes
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
Philadelphia
Everyone loves to see the Sixers on the schedule. Even though the Sixers are 12.5 point underdogs, this game should be so high scoring that the players from both teams may be able to hit their fantasy value after only 3 quarters. Target this game tonight.
- Michael Carter-Williams – The two top positions to target against the Blazers are PG’s and Centers. MCW is coming off of a bad game against the Kings, but he should bounce back nicely against Lillard and the Blazers. The total for this game is set at 225 points and I love to target PG’s in these fast paced games.
- Spencer Hawes – Hawes has a solid matchup against Lopez tonight who is one of the slowest Centers in the league. I can’t imagine Lopez being able to stick with Hawes on the perimeter. Hawes is one of my favorite Centers tonight.
Portland
The Blazers are probably the top overall team to target tonight. They are expected to score 119 points tonight which is a crazy number. All five starters are in play here as the Sixers rank in the bottom 4 against every position on the floor. The only players that I don’t love is Robin Lopez, but even he has value if you want to punt the Center position.
- Damian Lillard – Like I mentioned earlier, I love targeting PG’s in games that are expected to be fast-paced because the PG’s are typically the ones that are pushing the pace. Expect Lillard to be one of the highest scoring PG’s tonight.
- Nicolas Batum – Batum has been quiet over his past 3 games and his price is starting to come down across the industry. I will take Batum at a depressed price against the worst defense in the league every single day.
Charlotte at Sacramento
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -5.5, 200.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Tolliver-McRoberts-Jefferson
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
Charlotte
The Bobcats travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings in what is expected to be a fairly close, fairly high scoring game. The Kings are not one of the better defenses in the league and they have specifically struggled to defend every position other than Centers. Cousins has actually picked up his defense lately. While I don’t hate Al Jefferson, I think there are much better options at the Center position.
- Kemba Walker – The Kings are giving up the 6th most FP’s to PG’s this season and I expect Walker to play well here. Even though I like taking him more when he is playing at home, the matchup is too good to pass up.
Sacramento
The Kings are in an interesting spot tonight because they are expected to score a lot of points, but the Bobcats have actually been pretty solid defensively. They haven’t defended SF’s or Centers particularly well this season, but have shut down the other positions for the most part.
- DeMarcus Cousins – When Cousins is engaged, there isn’t another big man in this league that is better. While he can still overreact and sometimes get in foul trouble, he has been a much more mature player this season. I think you can expect another big game out of him tonight against Jefferson.