NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Atlanta at Charlotte – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -2.5, 192 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Williams-Jefferson
| Atlanta | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.3 | Team Proj. | 94.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.32 | Team Pace | 95.52 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 9 | 2 | 19 | 6 | Opp. Season | 13 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 29 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 19 | 26 | 20 | 9 | |
Atlanta
Jeff Teague sat out last night with a sore ankle, but unsurprisingly, the team kept on rolling versus the Heat. The team has little incentive to bring him back earlier than necessary, so it’s possible that he’ll be out again tonight. Dennis Schroeder would be an elite value yet again if Teague is out again. The bigger question is whether or not several of the other starters will miss out on tonight’s game. I’m going to give the Hawks an “incomplete” until we get news closer to time.
Editor’s Note: The entire starting five (Teague, Korver, Carroll, Millsap, Horford) will be out for tonight’s game for the Hawks. Schroder is the most obvious play, but Bazemore and Sefolosha could also be nice min-priced options tonight.
Elite Plays
Check back later once the Hawks have announced their injury news and plans to rest any starters.
Secondary Plays
Check back later once the Hawks have announced their injury news and plans to rest any starters.
Charlotte
The Hornets lost a crushing double-OT thriller in Washington last night. Five players logged at least 40 minutes, so the Hornets will be playing on some tired legs versus one of the deepest teams in basketball. The Hornets will likely be without Cody Zeller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, which means even more time for the starters. Vegas projects this as the lowest scoring game of the night, but it also has the smallest point spread, so it makes for a decent game to target on such a small slate.
Elite Plays
Kemba Walker (FD: $7,500; DK: $7,200)
Walker was only 3-17 last night, but it was a promising sign that he played 46 minutes in the loss. His price is still depressed from missing time due to injury, and he makes for a good play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has played at least 31 minutes in five straight games and will likely be asked to play at least that many tonight due to the bevy of Hornets’ injuries.
Gerald Henderson (FD: $5,400; DK: $5,200)
Henderson isn’t the sexiest of DFS plays, but he is remarkably consistent. He has established a floor of about 25 points, and has proven that he will get consistent playing time, even with a healthy squad. He has played at least 31 minutes in six straight games. The gap between his floor and ceiling probably isn’t very high, but he makes for a rock-solid cash game selection.
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $7,700; DK: $6,700)
Big Al has been dealing with some knee problems and logged 40 minutes last night, but if he’s in the lineup, he’s an good option at a reasonable price. His price on DraftKings nearly moves him into an elite play as he is just $6,700. Cody Zeller’s continued absence will mean that Jefferson and Marvin Williams are the only reliable bigs for the Hornets, which should guarantee plenty of run. The Hawks’ interior defense with Al Horford is solid, but Jefferson is a double-double machine with 40+ upside on any given night.
New York at Chicago – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Chicago -16.5, 189 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Larkin-Galloway-Thomas-Bargnani-Amundson
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| New York | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189.0 |  | Vegas Total | 189 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 16.5 | Vegas Sprd | -16.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 86.3 | Team Proj. | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.46 | Team Pace | 95.32 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Shane Larkin | Langston Galloway | Lance Thomas | Andrea Bargnani | Louis Amundson | Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 5 | 19 | 16 | 7 | Opp. Season | 19 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 12 | 27 | 2 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 29 | 16 | 14 | 18 | |
New York
The Knicks are coming off of a yet another loss, although they were competitive at home versus the Celtics. Andrea Bargnani stuffed the box score with 25 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 blocks in the losing effort. The Knicks are in full freefall mode, but to their credit, they are still playing hard. One of the biggest surprises from last night was the emergence of Shane Larkin, who played 44 minutes in route to scoring 14 points with six dimes. The Knicks travel to Chicago to play the well-rested Bulls. While the Bulls aren’t their usual defensive selves this season, this isn’t a matchup that should be too heavily targeted.
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
Langston Galloway/Shane Larkin (FD: $5,900/$4,600; DK: $5,100/$4,000)
There isn’t much to like about the Knicks right now, from both a real-world and fantasy perspective. Alexey Shved breathed life into both for a few weeks, but is out for several weeks with a fractured rib. With Shved and Tim Hardaway Jr. out, Langston Galloway and Shane Larkin have been logging heavy minutes. Larkin played an outstanding 44 minutes last night, and it’s possible that the Knicks will continue to give him looks down the stretch to determine what the team has in the young guard. Both should be guaranteed at least 30+ minutes, even in the event of a blowout.
Chicago
The schedule-makers have done the Bulls a favor here, as they are not only coming off several days rest, but they get to face the lowly Knicks at home. The Bulls are starting to get healthier and have won four of five games. The return of Taj Gibson hasn’t done much to deter the production of red-hot Nikola Mirotic, who is averaging 22 actual points per game over his last 6 games. It’s hard to avoid games on such a small slate, but the Bulls are 17-point favorites in this one and should be able to rest their starters in the second half.
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
Aaron Brooks (FD: $6,000; DK: $5,800)
Brooks struggled when he was initially inserted into the starting lineup in place for the injured Rose, but he has recently found his stride, scoring at least 30+ DK points in three straight games. The Knicks are last in the league over the last 7 days in defending opposing point guards. He might not see a full complement of minutes in the event of a blowout, but he should be able to approach value during his time on the court.
Joakim Noah (FD: $6,900; DK: $6,100)
Noah is back to his “Point Center” ways and has racked up at least five assists in FOURTEEN straight games. That is a ridiculous number for any position, much less a center. Noah’s scoring has been down, but his rebounds and assists have made up the difference. His price and potential for bonuses makes him a slightly better play on DK. His inability to score in bunches limits his upside, but Noah makes for a solid cash game play due to his ability to contribute in a variety of categories.
Golden State at Milwaukee – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -5, 199.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
| Golden State | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.63 | Team Pace | 96.19 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 15 | 24 | 13 | 20 | Opp. Season | 6 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 26 | 18 | 1 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 17 | 1 | |
Golden State
The Warriors are coming off of an impressive road win in Memphis where they used their seemingly normal third-quarter burst to blow the game wide open. The game did stay close enough for the starters to play some in the fourth, which is a rarity for Golden State. Andre Iguodala will rest on Saturday, which should open up some additional minutes for Harrison Barnes and Justin Holiday. Defensively, the Bucks’ numbers for the season are good, but they have slipped defensively since the trading of Brandon Knight. Fire up several of the Warriors into both your cash and GPP lineups.
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10,000; DK: $9,400)
Curry finally needed to play 34 minutes last night, and he responded with 38 points, 10 assists, and 3 steals in the victory. Stephen Curry’s fantasy production has suffered recently because his services haven’t been needed in the fourth quarter. The game tonight is supposed to stay close, which could mean another 35 minutes from Curry. Curry should be licking his chops in a matchup with Michael Carter-Williams, who provides a greater fight on the offensive side of the ball. Curry is especially appealing on DraftKings due to the cheaper price, three-point bonus, and lesser penalties for turnovers.
Klay Thompson (FD: $6,800; DK: $7,000)
Much like Kemba Walker earlier, Thompson’s price has not yet risen to the levels it was before his injury. His minutes restriction was removed last night, although he still played “only” 27 minutes. Had the game stayed closer, I expect that Thompson could have easily played 30+, which he could do tonight. In his limited action, he poured in 28 points on 6-9 from long range. His matchup with the Greek Freak’s length isn’t ideal (he’ll likely be guarded by Middleton some as well), but Thompson has one of the quickest shots in the league and shouldn’t any issue getting his shots up. On a small slate, feel free to lock in both of the Splash Brothers.
Secondary Plays
Draymond Green (FD: $7,600; DK: $7,500)
Green played only 20 minutes on Friday night, which could be Steve Kerr’s way of saving him for tonight’s contest. Green is a treat to roster due to his ability to stuff the stat sheet in a hurry. Green will likely do battle with Ilyasova down lown, which will result in a sizeable quickness advantage for him. He could also play some center if the team elects to give Bogut some additional rest on the second of a back-to-back. Green has shown too much inconsistency to be used in cash games, but his upside makes him a nice target for GPPs.
Editor’s Note: Green is out (rest) for tonight’s game. David Lee should join the starting lineup and instantly becomes one of the top value plays tonight. Harrison Barnes and Justin Holiday should also see some extra playing time.
Milwaukee
The Bucks had lost six straight before winning back-to-back games versus the Heat and Pacers. Tonigh, they get to take on the league’s best team, but they’ll get to face a lesser version of them as they will be without Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. Both players are excellent defenders, which improves the matchup dramatically for the Bucks. Vegas has the Bucks listed as 5-point underdogs, so they expect it to stay close throughout. Feel free to target several Bucks in both your cash and GPP lineups.
Elite Plays
Ersan Ilysova (FD: $6,000; DK: $6,700)
No one has been hotter lately than Ersan Ilyasova (I’ve always wanted to type that sentence. Dreams do come true, kids.). In all seriousness, Ilyasova has back-to-back 42+ FP games, including a career-high 34 actual points in his last game. Without Draymond Green in the lineup for the Warriors, his matchup gets a bit easier, as well. It’s hard to trust someone as notoriously inconsistent as Ilyasova, but at this price (especially on FD), he’s one of the top values for tonight.
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $7,100; DK: $6,800)
Here are the fantasy point totals from MCW’s last five games (on FD): 37, 7, 36, 32, and 18. I think it’s safe to say that he isn’t the model of consistency, but he has shown considerable upside in the past and should benefit from an up-tempo game. His rebounding and assist totals haven’t been quite as high since joining the Bucks, but he is always a triple-double threat on the right night. He makes for a nice contrarian, GPP play in his matchup with Curry.
Zaza Pachulia (FD: $6,200; DK: $5,800)
Zaza felt left out that MCW got to play the game logs game and wanted to be included. Here are his last five (also on FD): 25, 46, 26, 56, 19. If the pattern is to continue, Zaza will rebound with a monster game tonight. While I don’t think 50+ is in store, I think he should contend for a double-double at a reasonable price. Andrew Bogut is a good defender, but he only plays about 23 minutes a game, so Zaza won’t have to deal with him every time he’s on the court.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $7,500; DK: $7,300)
Other than Gordon Hayward, no other small forward has the kind of upside that the Greek Freek possesses on Saturday night. He has averaged over 40 minutes per game over his last six games and has gone over 36 DK points in five of those six. He has the potential for double-digit points from blocks and steals alone, and is also a threat for 10+ rebounds as well. He’ll likely draw a combination of both Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes on defense, but Antetokounmpo should be able to contribute in enough areas to pay off his moderate price tag.
Oklahoma City at Utah – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -5, 196.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Waiters-Singler-Kanter-Adams
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
| Oklahoma City | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 95.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.13 | Team Pace | 92.38 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Dion Waiters | Kyle Singler | Enes Kanter | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 1 | Opp. Season | 27 | 7 | 17 | 28 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 24 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder were on a roll before they were bulldozed by the red-hot Spurs on Wednesday night. The team has had a while to blow off some steam from this embarrassment and look to get back on track versus the Jazz. Russell Westbrook looks to continue his MVP-caliber run and add another triple-double to his resume. The Jazz will pose a stern test as they rank first in the league in points allowed at just 95.0 points per game.
Elite Plays
None.
Secondary Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $12,800; DK: $12,900)
It feels wrong to put Russell Westbrook in the Secondary Plays category, but the price and matchup dictated this more than his raw ability. He can absolutely go for 80 tonight and it wouldn’t shock me, but he needs more than 60 points to reach value, which is a tough test about the league’s best defense. Westbrook will be greeted at the rim by the game’s best rim-protector in Rudy Gobert. If you can find enough value elsewhere, feel free to build your lineup around the games’ best fantasy player right now.
Enes Kanter (FD: $7,100; DK: $7,500)
Kanter fits the same mold as Westbrook, in that his price and matchup only warrant a selection in the Secondary Plays. Kanter has thrived with his new team and has taken on extra responsibilities lately with the injuries to Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison. Kanter will likely start at the “4”, which means he’ll avoid the immediate matchup with Rudy Gobert, although Gobert’s weakside shotblocking is impeccable as well. The matchup isn’t great, but his playing time is guaranteed in what should be a close game. Oh yea, there’s also the revenge game factor if you’re looking for some #NarrativeStreet.
Utah
The Jazz were embarrassed on the road last night where they were blown out by an average Nuggets team. The team also lost Derrick Favors early due to back spasms, and he could be forced to miss tonight’s game. Trevor Booker would be the most likely candidate to fill in for Favors, although the team could also opt to go with a smaller starting lineup.
Elite Plays
Trevor Booker (FD: $3,500; DK: $3,200)
This pick is obviously contingent on the health of Favors. If Favors cannot go, Booker would likely play upwards of 30 minutes in an uptempo game. Booker has a solid offensive game and could easily push for 25+ FP’s at a near minimum price. Check on Favors’ status closer to tip, and if he’s out, plug in Booker for some easy production for cheap.
Gordon Hayward (FD: $8,000; DK: $7,600)
I think Hayward is an elite play with or without Favors, but he does receive a slight uptick in usage if Favors is forced to miss tonight’s game. Hayward returned to the starting lineup last night after missing a few games and picked up where he left off, pouring in 24 actual points and 40+ FP’s. He’ll likely be guarded by Kyle Singler for large portions of the game, which isn’t exactly a matchup to stay away from. Hayward possesses legitimate 50-point upside at a reasonable price and makes for a great cash and GPP play on Saturday night.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $8,200; DK: $8,100)
Gobert is another player who stands to benefit if Favors is out tonight. Gobert has been slightly inconsistent recently, but has tremendous upside due to his ability to block shots in bunches. He’ll do battle versus Steven Adams and his former teammate (Kanter) and should be set for 35+ minutes in a high scoring game. I expect him to put up a double-double with several blocks, which should be enough for him to reach value.
Denver at Portland – 10:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Portland -8.5, 207 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Gallinari-Faried
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Afflalo-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
| Denver | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.49 | Team Pace | 96.33 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Wilson Chandler | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Arron Afflalo | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 22 | 11 | 1 | 5 | Opp. Season | 8 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 25 | 17 | 9 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 23 | 8 | 30 | 28 | |
Denver
The Nuggets put together an impressive performance at home versus the stingy defense of the Utah Jazz. The matchup tonight is better, but still a challenging one as the Blazers are also a stout team defensively, especially on the interior. The Nuggets have shown that it will occasionally rest some starters on the second of back-to-backs, so make sure you check the inactives before plugging them into your lineup.
Elite Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $7,200; DK: $7,000)
There is a slight risk that the team decides to rest Lawson again on the second game of a back-to-back, so make sure he’s in the lineup before plugging him in. Assuming he plays, he’s an excellent value on both major sites as his price has come down to historically low levels. Lillard is not a great defender and Lawson will be encouraged to attack throughout the game. He only needs 35 FP’s to reach value, a total I fully expect him to reach in what should be a high-scoring game.
Secondary Plays
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5,900; DK: $5,700)
Chandler is similar to Gerald Henderson in that neither are terribly exciting to insert into your lineup, but there is something to be said for the consistency that they offer at a reasonable price. Chandler has a floor of about 22 points with the potential for 35+ on his best nights. Nicolas Batum is an good defender, but Chandler contributes in a variety of ways other than scoring so he should find a way to reach value at his modest asking price.
Portland
Portland is starting to get healthy again as Nicolas Batum made his way back into the lineup on Thursday night. Batum and LaMarcus Aldridge had both missed several games, which was tough on the Blazers but great for DFS players. The Blazers spread out the fantasy points when healthy, but quick look at the DvP ranks shows a lot of “blue” for the Portland players, which means lots of fantasy goodness for us. The Blazers have also owned the Nuggets in the past, winning seven straight games.
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9,400; DK: $8,700)
If you were like me and followed the age-old adage of “always play bigs versus Denver” last night, you were probably burned by Derrick Favors’ lousy performance. We’re going back to the well tonight, although Aldridge is a much more talented player with a higher floor and ceiling. A look at his game logs shows some recent struggles in his last three, but he was injured in one and played Utah in the other, so I think he’s set for a breakout game. On DraftKings, he is a steal at $8,700, but he also makes for a good play on FanDuel at $9,400.
Secondary Plays
Robin Lopez (FD: $5,300; DK: $4,400)
I’m not in love with Lopez as a player, but this matchup and price (especially on DK) is too good to pass up on such a small slate. Lopez played 29 minutes in his last game, and he should approach that total again tonight. His blocks have been down lately, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see RoLo come up with two or three this evening. Lopez only needs about 22-25 FP’s to pay off his price, which is something I believe he can do against Denver’s lousy interior defense.
Damian Lillard (FD: $9,000; DK: $7,800)
Take everything I said with Lopez and reverse it. I love Lillard as a player, but his matchup isn’t as ideal in this one as the Nuggets defend the point guard position fairly well. His price on FD is also too high, although he is reasonable priced on DK. Lillard won’t be able to hoist the number of shots he did when Aldridge and Batum were out, but he will still be very involved in the offense. Many will target other point guard options (Westbrook, Curry, Shroeder, Walker), so Lillard could make for a nice contrarian play in an uptempo game.
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