NBA Grind Down: Saturday, May 9th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Atlanta at Washington – 5:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -3.5, 199.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Atlanta | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 98.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.10 | Team Pace | 96.82 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | Opp. Season | 19 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks picked up a critical win in Game 2 to tie the series at a game apiece. The series now shifts to Washington for Games 3 and 4. Vegas has the Hawks listed as 3.5-point favorites tonight with their team total set at 199.5 points. All five starters from Atlanta are in play tonight, with Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague being the top two targets.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.6 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $9100, DK: $8800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Millsap has been huge in this series, scoring at least 45 fantasy points in each of the first two games. Now that his minutes have increased, I have no problem paying a premium price. He has now scored at least 45 fantasy points in five of his last six games and he has a good chance to reach that mark again tonight.
Jeff Teague (FD: $6900, DK: $7000 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Teague hasn’t cracked the 30-fantasy point mark yet this series, but he could change that tonight in Washington. He has been a little more inconsistent than we’d like, but he draws a favorable matchup against the Wizards and he should see a small uptick in minutes with this game being played on the road.
Secondary Plays
Al Horford (FD: $8000, DK: $8100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $6700, DK: $7200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 16.6)
Kyle Korver (FD: $6300, DK: $6500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 14.2)
Washington
The big question surrounding the Wizards is the availability of John Wall. There have been conflicting reports about his wrist injury and his status for tonight’s game is not known. We will consider him a game-time decision. If Wall is unable to play, Ramon Sessions and Bradley Beal would both see an uptick in minutes and/or usage rate.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Bradley Beal (FD: $7400, DK: $7600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Beal has been one of the most consistent sources of fantasy production here in the early going of the playoffs. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in every game so far in the postseason and he typically plays around 40 minutes per game. His price has come up a bit on FanDuel and DraftKings, but he’s still the elite shooting guard option on the board.
Paul Pierce (FD: $4600, DK: $5100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.1)
Pierce would also see a small boost in minutes and possibly usage rate as well if John Wall is unable to suit up. He played 35 minutes in Game 2 and scored 22 fantasy points. He has now scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He is one of the better value plays on the board tonight.
Otto Porter (FD: $4300, DK: $5400 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 15.5)
Everyone keeps waiting for Porter to finally have a bad game, but until it happens, there is no reason to fade him. He remains one of the better value plays on the board, as he has scored at least 25 fantasy points in four of his last five games. The one thing to look for with bench players is the minutes and he should see 30+ tonight in Game 3.
Ramon Sessions (FD: $5500, DK: $4600 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 19.3) – If John Wall is out.
Secondary Plays
Marcin Gortat (FD: $7300, DK: $6800 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 17.3)
Nene Hilario (FD: $4000, DK: $3900 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 22)
Golden State at Memphis – 8:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Golden State -4.5, 196.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Golden State | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196.5 |  | Vegas Total | 196.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.15 | Team Pace | 94.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | Opp. Season | 7 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
Golden State
The Warriors uncharacteristically lost at home in Game 2 and will now have to win at least one game in Memphis if they are going to advance to the Western Conference Finals. Golden State is more than capable of such a feat though, as they were the best team in the NBA during the regular season. Vegas has the Warriors set at 4.5-point underdogs with the total for the game set at 196.5 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.2 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10000, DK: $10600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.4)
Curry has yet to reach value in this series, which should lower his ownership considerably for tonight’s Game 3. He has not shot the ball well yet though and it’s only a matter of time before his threes start falling. Tonight is a great chance to take him when his ownership will be down. He is the top overall play tonight and he can be used in both cash games and GPPs.
Draymond Green (FD: $7900, DK: $8200 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 17.2)
Green got into early foul trouble in Game 2 and never really got into a rhythm after that. He still finished with 31 fantasy points, but that certainly fell short of value expectations. Green should have his best outing of the series tonight in Game 3 and I expect him to see around 40 minutes of action. Again, the masses will be off of the Warriors tonight, which is fine by me.
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7300, DK: $7400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27.3)
Harrison Barnes (FD: $4300, DK: $4500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 14.8)
Memphis
The Grizzlies picked up a huge win in Game 2 to take homecourt advantage, but this series is far from over. The Grizzlies improved to 4-0 with Mike Conley in the lineup. They will be at full-strength tonight against the Warriors in Game 3. Vegas them listed as 4.5-point underdogs, but this one should come down to the wire.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8700, DK: $8000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Gasol is Mr. Consistent at center. He is the easy play in cash games tonight. Andrew Bogut doesn’t play enough minutes, Al Horford is overpriced, and Marcin Gortat will have a tough time creating his own shots if John Wall is out. Outside of Game 2, Gasol has been a lock for 40+ fantasy points so far in the postseason. Look for him to get back to that tonight.
Zach Randolph (FD: $7300, DK: $7300 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
This is a much better matchup for Randolph than the first-round against the Blazers was. Randolph has scored 37 and 34 fantasy points in the first two games of this series. He has played at least 36 minutes in each of his last four games and he provides a very high floor for a player at his price point.
Secondary Plays
Mike Conley (FD: $5800, DK: $5600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Tony Allen (FD: $5200, DK: $5400 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 16.6)