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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 15th - Page Two

by JeffElJefe Last Updated 2014-11-15 20:55:19

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Minnesota at Dallas

Minnesota Dallas
minnesotanba Vegas Total 208 dallasnba Vegas Total 208
Vegas Sprd 10.0 Vegas Sprd -10.0
Team Proj. 99.25 Team Proj. 109.25
Team Pace 97.19 Team Pace 94.96
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Zach LaVine Kevin Martin Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Nikola Pekovic Proj Starter Jameer Nelson Monta Ellis Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 23 5 15 9 9 Opp. Season 4 23 17 19 12
Opp. Last 7 6 4 26 5 13 Opp. Last 7 3 26 29 14 18

Minnesota

The Timberwolves were just blown out by the Pelicans by nearly 50 points. The bright spot was that Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine each set career highs in points. Gorgui Dieng started for Thaddeus Young and didn’t have the game that owners were hoping for. The same value plays are on the board with Young sitting out again due to a death in the family.

Prime Plays

Andrew Wiggins – Ride the rookie while he’s hot, the price is down, and Young is out. He should get more than the 23 minutes he used to put up a career-high 20 points last night. What’s also encouraging is the efficiency that he used to do it; he made both three point attempts and was 7-10 from the field overall.

Secondary Plays

Nikola Pekovic – Pekovic hardly played last night in the blowout and is nice and rested for this game tonight. Usually hovering around 30 – 35 fantasy points, he makes for a great cash game play.

Dallas

Dallas will be playing up in pace tonight against Minnesota. Big favorites at home with one of the highest over/unders, there will be value in rostering a Maverick or two. They are a predictable team in that they do well at home, struggle on the road, beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams.

Prime Plays

Chandler Parsons – You figure that Wiggins will get the more active assignment in Monta Ellis, leaving Kevin Martin to deal with more of a spot up shooter in Parsons. I also think that the Wolves will opt to double Dirk Nowitzki often. Both of those are good things for Parsons. We haven’t seen the sort of games that Dallas expected when they signed Parsons, but that has kept his price very reasonable.

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki – Dieng doesn’t match up well for covering Dirk away from the key, and Anthony Bennett just doesn’t have the talent to do it. I’m curious to see who they throw at him (assuming multiple bodies at a time), but either way Dirk will find a way to either score or distribute.

Brooklyn at Portland

Brooklyn Portland
brooklynnba Vegas Total 208 portlandnba Vegas Total 208
Vegas Sprd 8.00 Vegas Sprd -8.00
Team Proj. 100 Team Proj. 108
Team Pace 96.95 Team Pace 96.14
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Deron Williams Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Kevin Garnett Brook Lopez Proj Starter Damian Lillard Wesley Matthews Allen Crabbe Chris Kaman Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 22 4 24 2 19 Opp. Season 25 17 19 6 17
Opp. Last 7 23 18 10 3 27 Opp. Last 7 21 16 17 7 21

Brooklyn

The good news for the Nets is that Deron Williams finally looks healthy again. Brook Lopez isn’t quite there yet, but at least he’s on the court. Their bench isn’t very strong, but they’ve been getting solid production from Jarrett Jack. Joe Johnson recently called the team out for being selfish and not moving the ball around enough, which is a pretty funny comment if you’ve ever watched Joe Johnson play basketball.

Prime Plays

Kevin Garnett – The Nets are being smart about monitoring Garnett’s minutes this season; having only played 13 minutes against Golden State, he should see 25 – 30 minutes tonight. Garnett is a solid price-play to give you cap relief on both FD and DK.

Secondary Plays

Deron Williams – Great matchup offensively here for Williams as he can use his size to his advantage. His ability to fill numerous categories in the stat sheet will keep him a solid cash game play while his price is in this range. As mentioned above, he finally looks healthy, and we’re seeing him play with confidence. He outplayed Stephen Curry the other night and gets the opportunity to put on a show against another great guard tonight.

Portland

The Blazers are where a lot of people are going to turn to for value tonight. Nicolas Batum is out and LaMarcus Aldridge is doubtful to play. Potential wing fill-ins Dorell Wright and Alan Crabbe can be safely ignored, but there will be value in increased usage of the starters and key role players. Aldridge had a couple stretches last season that he was out for, and the Blazers still have a similar roster, so we do have to data to go off of.

Prime Plays

Damian Lillard – Lillard had one of his best stretches of the season last year in February when Aldridge missed some time. Speedy guards are a tough matchup for Deron Williams, and Lillard will look to blow by him and get to the basket. He can get into spurts of turning the ball over possession after possession, but he’ll need to protect the ball today if Portland is going to win.

Chris Kaman – Before we all go high-fiving each other about the guaranteed 30 points that we’re going to get out of Kaman, keep in mind that Terry Stotts has hinted that he wants to monitor his minutes better moving forward. That said, even a slight uptick in minutes with Aldridge out should result in him easily exceeding value. Kaman’s high usage rate and nose for rebounding make him a double-double waiting to happen.

Secondary Plays

Robin Lopez – If you like narratives, look no further than the verbal sparring between the Lopez twins. Brook recently told a reporter that Robin is an idiot. Robin says Mom is rooting for him tonight. May the battle begin.

San Antonio at Sacramento

San Antonio Sacramento
sanantonionba Vegas Total 203 sacramentonba Vegas Total 203
Vegas Sprd -2 Vegas Sprd 2
Team Proj. 102.75 Team Proj. 100.75
Team Pace 95.51 Team Pace 96.98
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard Tim Dunan Matt Bonner Proj Starter Darren Collison Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Jason Thompson DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 30 2 8 13 22 Opp. Season 14 13 11 23 8
Opp. Last 7 27 12 3 20 16 Opp. Last 7 15 9 12 23 4

San Antonio

To summarize last night for the Spurs: Tim Duncan scored his 25,000th point, Kawhi Leonard got stitches, and they won. Leonard is expected to play, but since this is the second game in as many days, we can’t be 100% certain that the Spurs veteran trio (Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili) will be available. They played back to back games earlier in the week, but who knows if that’s a good sign or a bad one…

Prime Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Boris Diaw – There’s not much upside with Diaw, but he can be a solid cash game play especially if we find out about any Spurs sitting.

Sacramento

The Kings have two guys really leading the charge for them: Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins. They face a Spurs team that has already shut down Stephen Curry and Kobe Bryant this week. With Leonard available to shut down opposing backcourt players, I think Gay will be the next in line. Coach Mike Malone might be the most underrated coach in the league and has done a great job getting the most he possibly can out of this squad. A 5-1 start has been deadened by three losses in a row now, but a win against the Spurs would make a big statement.

Prime Plays

Darren Collison – The price is too good and Collison will be an afterthought for the Spurs as they focus on shutting down Gay and Cousins. He seems to be recovered from the shoulder injury that kept him sidelined recently having played 37 minutes on Thursday. Early in the season he flashed his upside in good matchups, but recent tough matchups have brought his price down.

Secondary Plays

DeMarcus Cousins – The personal and technical fouls are enough to keep me away from almost ever using Cousins in my cash games. When he’s on the floor though, he does everything: points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals are all on the table.

Charlotte at Golden State

Charlotte Golden State
charlottenba Vegas Total 202 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 202
Vegas Sprd 10.00 Vegas Sprd -10.00
Team Proj. 96 Team Proj. 106
Team Pace 94.34 Team Pace 102.24
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kemba Walker Lance Stephenson P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Al Jefferson Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 27 16 1 26 1 Opp. Season 28 19 2 15 16
Opp. Last 7 29 19 8 21 1 Opp. Last 7 30 8 1 29 11

Charlotte

It seemed like half of the Hornets’ roster was questionable to play last night, yet most of them did. Keep an eye on reports today regarding how the injuries of those players have responded, because the same potential value plays that people liked yesterday would be in play today (with better expected output) if a player or two were to sit. The Warriors are one of the best defensive teams in the league but their pace of play can lead to there being value on opposing teams. The only way a guy like Al Jefferson can have success in a game like this is if the Hornets are successful in slowing the pace down to a crawl. The Warriors will make it a top priority to keep the pace up for this reason.

Prime Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Gary Neal – Neal isn’t a guy that you immediately plug into your lineup, but he’s a nice glue piece if you need a cheap shooting guard to fill out your roster. The pace of this game fits Neal’s game better than the slow-it-down and grind-it-out pace that the Hornets prefer. He’s a viable play with their current rotation, and becomes even more interesting if any of the wing players sit. His injury seemed to be minor as he just slipped on a wet spot on the floor in practice the other day.

Golden State

Full disclosure here: I’m a former employee and past season ticket holder of the Warriors. While I believe that I have a good read on the team, I understand that some people might consider those factors to contribute to a biased opinion. That said, the Warriors have had a great start to the season. Their offense is more fluid with fewer individual isolation plays and better distribution from the elbows. Their Achilles Heel is turnovers.

Prime Plays

Stephen Curry – Curry is in a great position to rebound from his recent poor outputs. Damian Lillard led the way two games ago against Charlotte and then last night Eric Bledsoe put up a monster game also. Point guards are dominating the Hornets and it won’t stop with Curry.

Andrew Bogut – The Warriors will need Bogut on the floor a lot, because he’s going to be the man assigned to stop Al Jefferson. You’ll likely see Steve Kerr match minutes and however many minutes Jefferson plays, Bogut will play also. This is assuming that Bogut doesn’t fall for a few of the many pump-fakes that Jefferson will use. Lock him in for a double-double.

Secondary Plays

Klay Thompson – Thompson has earned his contract so far this season, along with that he’s usually been paying off the DFS salaries assigned to him. Expect that to continue tonight.

Phoenix at L.A. Clippers

Phoenix L.A. Clippers
phoenixnba Vegas Total 210 laclippersnba Vegas Total 210
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 102.0 Team Proj. 108.5
Team Pace 98.36 Team Pace 96.69
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Eric Bledsoe Goran Dragic Marcus Morris Markieff Morris Miles Plumlee Proj Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Jamal Crawford Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 9 9 23 16 13 Opp. Season 17 27 4 30 4
Opp. Last 7 8 5 21 28 24 Opp. Last 7 18 23 15 4 20

Phoenix

The Suns lost last night and then hopped on a plane to start a six game road trip. Projecting minutes for their backcourt is tough if not impossible, yet their frontcourt has been fairly predictable. Shooting guards and power forwards have had the most success against them early in the season.

Prime Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Markieff Morris / Miles Plumlee – Two frontcourt guys that should get minutes with high point-per-dollar potential in what will be a high-scoring game. GPP only for me.

L.A. Clippers

So far it’s been an up and down season for the Clippers, but they are big favorites at home tonight where there will be plenty of points scored. Blake Griffin was involved in an incident at a night club, but the team appears to be rallying around him and I expect that to be seen on the court as well.

Prime Plays

Blake Griffin – People might be scared off by the off the court distractions, but Griffin has a great matchup that he can take advantage of should he want to vent some frustration. Early in the season Phoenix has been the worst team at defending power forwards and they haven’t faced one of Griffin’s caliber yet.

Secondary Plays

None

About the Author

JeffElJefe
JeffElJefe

Working in the Fantasy Sports industry since 2012, Jeff has witnessed Daily Fantasy Sports from every angle: business, content, and as a player. He’s been featured in the New York Times, the L.A. Times, numerous books including Dan Barbarisi’s “Dueling with Kings”, and numerous documentaries including Jason Baumgardner’s “Perfect Lineup”.

On the business side he worked with several startup operators in direct competition with FanDuel and DraftKings. Jeff brought a player’s perspective to the product side of things and was innovative with new features that you see the bigger sites now implementing today.

Content has always been a passion for him, so the opportunity to write for RotoGrinders early in his career was something to jump at. Jeff hosted popular shows for MLB, NBA, and NFL content and often focused on teaching a contrarian approach long before it was cool to do so.

Jeff’s run as a player has been capped off by what many refer to as the best year in DFS tournament history. A baseball live final win (DK), a football Million dollar score, and 2 2nd place finishes in FD live finals.

You can follow Jeff on Twitter: @JeffKCollins