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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 1st Page Two

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-11-01 19:42:26

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Indiana at Atlanta

Indiana Atlanta
NBAIndiana_zps9dfd8824 Vegas Total 194 NBAAtlanta_zps1a41d165 Vegas Total 194
Vegas Sprd 10.5 Vegas Sprd -10.5
Team Proj. 91.75 Team Proj. 102.25
Team Pace 97.76 Team Pace 97.5
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Donald Sloan C.J. Miles Solomon Hill Luis Scola Roy Hibbert Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver DeMarre Carroll Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 30 30 19 19 5 Opp. Season 18 18 2 2 10
Opp. Last 7 30 30 19 19 5 Opp. Last 7 18 18 2 2 10

Indiana

The Pacers continue to trudge along with their cast of bench players. As we know by now they have no George, Stephenson, Watson, or West. This means hugh minutes for Sloan and Miles for the near future. A surprise from the first two games in that Scola cannot seem to stay on the court long enough to hit value. The first game it was due to foul trouble, but last night he ended the game with 19 minutes and only 1 foul committed. At some point he will have a very good game, but it is tough to continue playing him.

Prime Plays

Donald Sloan – He is getting all the minutes he can handle and he is getting a bit more confident as each game goes on. His price will continue to rise if he plays like he has and this may be our last chance to get him at a reasonable price for his production.

Secondary Plays

C.J. Miles – Much of his production is based on if he is hitting his shot or not. He is getting enough minutes (32 last night) and if he is playing well, makes a great value play.

Chris Copeland – Scola is starting, but like I said before, is not getting the minutes. That is because Copeland is coming off the bench and playing very well for the Pacers. He is a risk, but at cheap prices across the industry, could pay off.

Atlanta

The Atlanta Hawks have gotten their franchise big man Horford back after missing most of last season. He came back to play 31 minutes and score 12 points with 13 rebounds. They now have to face the most injury ridden team in the NBA at the moment and should have their way in all areas of the game. Vegas has the Hawks favored by 10’ with a total of 194.

Prime Plays

Jeff Teague – It is hard to pay up for anyone against the Pacers as the blowout could happen especially on a back to back. Teague is not a extremely high priced guy and should be able to put up enough points to hit value even with the blowout tonight.

Secondary Plays

Kyle Korver – Korver is a very hit or miss player. If he hits 6 of his 7 threes again, well he exceeds value. If he is just a bit off, then value is tough for him to hit as he does not get many other stats. Korver should still see 30+ minutes and should launch his usually 5-8 threes.

Brooklyn at Detroit

Brooklyn Detroit
NBABrooklyn_zps593f4834 Vegas Total 196 NBADetroit_zps3479438e Vegas Total 196
Vegas Sprd 3.00 Vegas Sprd -3.00
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 99.5
Team Pace 102.78 Team Pace 96.26
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Deron Williams Bojan Bogdanovic Joe Johnson Kevin Garnett Mason Plumlee Proj Starter Brandon Jennings Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Kyle Singler Josh Smith Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 12 12 15 15 25 Opp. Season 17 17 30 30 13
Opp. Last 7 12 12 15 15 25 Opp. Last 7 17 17 30 30 13

Brooklyn

The Nets were beat by 16 on opening night to the Boston Celtics. They were led in scoring by Mirza Teletovic and minutes were spread around to 8 different players getting 23+. This Nets team looks like it should struggle mightily this year, but may be able to sneak out a win against a Pistons squad that has really underperformed early in the year.

Prime Plays

Deron Williams – He is the best player left on this Nets squad and he played 39 minutes in the first game which is 9 more minutes than the next highest player. He will have a great matchup against either Jennings or Augustin, who neither has ever been considered a good defender. If the Nets want to win, DWill has to step up big.

Secondary Plays

Joe Johnson: He played 34 minutes and put up 19 shots in the first game. There aren’t really any other players I can see taking shots away from Joe, so this type of shooting should continue.

Detroit

Detroit has looked pretty bad in their first two games of the year. Drummond continues to get himself in foul trouble early, Josh Smith is taking terrible shots, and Jennings is nowhere to be found. With that said, the Pistons will get Greg Monroe back from the suspension which should make the minutes interesting for the big three of the Pistons. Showing how bad the Pistons have been, they are only 3 point favorites at home against the Nets with a total of 196.

Prime Plays

Josh Smith – Smith is kind of in between a primary and secondary play for me today. He has looked great at times in their first two games, but Monroe coming back, I do not know exactly how that will effect his production.

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond – It is funny how I almost forgot how much Drummond annoyed me last year. Well after the first two games this year, I remembered quickly. He has so much potential, but cannot keep himself out of foul trouble. If he can do it for a whole game, he makes a great play. GPP only for me though.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Pope has been a bright spot for the Pistons. He has played 36 minutes and 41 minutes in their two games and has really filled up the stat sheet in all categories. He is not going to get you 40 fantasy points, but is a great value play.

Boston at Houston

Boston Houston
NBABoston_zpsa112e23a Vegas Total 208 NBAHouston_zps373bff5c Vegas Total 208
Vegas Sprd 8 Vegas Sprd -8
Team Proj. 100.25 Team Proj. 108.25
Team Pace 102.78 Team Pace 93.95
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Avery Bradley Jeff Green Jared Sullinger Kelly Olynyk Proj Starter Isaiah Canaan James Harden Trevor Ariza Terrence Jones Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 3 3 24 24 11 Opp. Season 29 29 10 10 6
Opp. Last 7 3 3 24 24 11 Opp. Last 7 29 29 10 10 6

Boston

The Celtics looked pretty good against what should be a bad Nets squad. Led by the triple-double machine Rondo, the Celtics have a very young starting lineup that does not look like it should be fighting for a high playoff spot if any. Boston is a pretty big underdog today at +8, but are in a matchup with one of the highest totals of the night at 207.

Prime Plays

Rajon Rondo – Rondo is one of my favorite players to watch when healthy and he proved it right as he came 3 rebounds shy of having a triple double against the Nets. He has a tough matchup against Beverly, but I expect this game to be up-tempo which plays right into Rondo’s wheelhouse.

Secondary Plays

Jared Sullinger – I really expect bigger things out of Sully this year. He was decent in the first game, but I expect a much bigger line out of him in this type of matchup tonight.

Houston

The Rockets are 2-0 to start the season and have a roster that if playing well, can stay with any team in the league. The starting lineup is extremely tough on both the offensive and defensive end with guys like Ariza, Beverly and Howard leading the defensive charge. They are great for fantasy as their starters play a lot of minutes and play an uptempo style that leads to a lot of easy baskets.

Prime Plays

Dwight Howard – There are a lot of good center plays tonight, but Howard may have the best matchup of them all. Olynk will have no chance at keeping the big man off the boards and it is clear that the Rockets are looking to feed Dwight inside right from the start this year.

Secondary Plays

James Harden – Price puts him into the secondary plays section, but I think he should have a great game tonight as well. He will be matched up with Bradley who is a decent defender, but Harden should run the floor and get enough easy looks to put up his 20 points. Harden has also produced in other stat categories this year so far which has really bumped up his value.

Chicago at Minnesota

Chicago Minnesota
NBAChicago_zpsb629d913 Vegas Total 190 NBAMinnesota_zps2982d06c Vegas Total 190
Vegas Sprd -2.50 Vegas Sprd 2.50
Team Proj. 96.5 Team Proj. 94
Team Pace 89.84 Team Pace 95.74
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Kirk Hinrich Tony Snell Mike Dunleavy Pau Gasol Joakim Noah Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Corey Brewer Thaddeus Young Nikola Pekovic
Opp. Season 14 14 4 4 18 Opp. Season 8 8 26 26 24
Opp. Last 7 14 14 4 4 18 Opp. Last 7 8 8 26 26 24

Chicago

Well it only took one and a half games for Derrick Rose to go down hurt. He is saying the injury is minor, but he didn’t come back out of the locker room for the 4th quarter last night which really worries me. I am expecting him to be out tonight which opens the door for Brooks and Hinrich to pick up minutes, especially if Butler continues to be out. Make sure you check the news prior to the game. The other problem I am having is the big three of Gasol, Noah and Gibson really negate a lot of fantasy points from each other which seems like they may not get any huge games this year like some of them are capable of. They are too hard to predict at the moment so it makes it hard to play any of them. The one guy that has looked the best for fantasy purposes is Pau, who if he was allowed to play in the 4th or overtime, would have easily had a double double and his line would have looked a lot better.

Prime Plays

Aaron Brooks – If he starts, he will get a bunch of minutes as really the only backup point guard the Bulls have. He has played well in the minutes he has gotten and is a great value play.

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol/Joakim Noah – This is another injury play. Taj sprained his ankle last night, but was able to return. Sometimes, those sprains flare up pretty big over night and could result in Taj not playing. If he is out as well, Pau and Noah will get all the minutes they can handle.

Kirk Hinrich – He played 34 minutes last night due to Derrick’s injury and played very well. He should have the ball in his hands a lot more if Derrick is out which will give him a few more assists, but also possibly more turnovers. He is a GPP only play tonight and make sure you check Butler and Rose’s status.

Minnesota

The Timberwolves got the chance to beat up on the struggling Detroit Pistons on Thursday behind a decent game from Thaddeus Young and Rubio. Rubio had a very good game with 11 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists to go along with Thads team high 19 points. This Twolves squad looks to be led by Young as he scored 26 in their first outing, a loss to the Grizzlies. They will have their work cut out for them against a extremely sound Bulls squad that embarrassed the Knicks in the opener and lost in OT to the Cavs. Vegas has the Twolves as 2’ point underdogs with a 191 total which is high for Bulls games.

Prime Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young – The only guy I can recommend playing is Thad as he has taken a huge role on this Twolves squad and is a bit underpriced at some outlets. It is a risky play and GPP only.

Denver at Oklahoma City

Denver Oklahoma City
NBADenver_zpsc83bc81b Vegas Total 194 NBAOklahomaCity_zps066b81e6 Vegas Total 194
Vegas Sprd -5.5 Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 99.8 Team Proj. 94.3
Team Pace 100.00 Team Pace 95.52
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Ty Lawson Arron Afflalo Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Timofey Mozgov Proj Starter Sebastian Telfair Andre Roberson Perry Jones Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 15 15 22 22 16 Opp. Season 4 4 11 11 27
Opp. Last 7 15 15 22 22 16 Opp. Last 7 4 4 11 11 27

Denver

The Nuggets came out and beat up on the Detroit Pistons in their home opener and will look to take on an undermanned Thunder team tonight. This Nuggets team seems to be one of the few healthy teams in the NBA and also picked up a nice off-season addition in Arron Afflalo. This game could get ugly real fast as the starting lineup for the Thunder looks downright awful. Surprisingly, Vegas only has the Nuggets as 5’ point favorites tonight, which shows that the Thunder may be able to keep it close.

Prime Plays

Kenneth Faried – The only guy that played real well on opening night was Faried. He had 22 points and 17 rebounds in only 28 minutes of work. He has a tough matchup against Ibaka, but his work rate and ability to get easy baskets should be enough for him to make value. I expect this game to be much quicker paced than their first game which plays into Faried’s skills perfectly.

Ty Lawson – Now that Sebastian Telfair is starting, Lawson looks like a great play in tonight’s matchup. He should be able to drive at will and take advantage of the matchup.

Secondary Plays

Arron Afflalo – He played a team high 40 minutes and put up 16 shots in the opener. I expect him to continue to launch up shots at a high rate and if he can put a few more in the basket, he makes a good option and should pay off his mid-tiered salary.

Oklahoma City

It has gone from bad to worse for the Thunder as Westbrook is out for a few weeks with a fractured hand. The bench players that were supposed to play off of Westbrook are now going to have to step up into primary scorer roles. The problem is the fact that they do not really have the personnel for that. It will be interesting to see who steps up in what could turn ugly very quickly.

Prime Plays

Serge Ibaka – Well the Thunder are down to Ibaka now. He will be the focal point of the offense, the problem is he has never been the type of player that can take over games with his skill set. He will be relied upon to do it all making him a good play today.

Perry Jones – This guy stepped up big time in their game against the Clippers. He will most likely play as many minutes as he can handle and will be with Ibaka as the primary scorers for the team. At his price, he makes a great play.

Secondary Plays

Sebastian Telfair – This game reminds me of opening night where the Pacers had a ton of great value plays. When that happens, some go off, but some do not pan out. Having some exposure to the guys in the secondary column here is a good GPP play, but they could also put up a dud. Telfair is the starter and will get minutes, but not sure how much production that will lead to.

Andre Roberson – Not exactly a player I love, but minutes = production in the NBA and Roberson should see 35+ tonight.

NBA Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3

About the Author

jmbwngfn
John Britt (jmbwngfn)

One of the top baseball and hockey analysts in the DFS industry, John Britt is a family man hailing from St. Louis, Missouri. A proud graduate of the University of Missouri, John’s passion is hockey but he excels at multiple DFS sports. He has been nominated multiple times for awards for his written work in both baseball (best MLB series) and hockey (3x NHL Writer of the Year nominee) and is now the Lead Editor at RotoGrinders. John can be found on Twitter at the username JMBWngFn.