NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 29th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
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The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Dallas at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Dallas -12.5, 206 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Harris-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Thompson-Richard Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
| Dallas | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 109.3 | Team Proj. | 96.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.51 | Team Pace | 99.95 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Devin Harris | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Hollis Thompson | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 27 | 29 | 17 | 18 | Opp. Season | 24 | 15 | 18 | 10 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 19 | 8 | 16 | 4 | |
Dallas
This will be the Mavericks’ third game in four days. Two games ago against the Knicks, the starters all played 39+ minutes in an overtime game and last night everyone played 32+. The obvious conclusion would be to play the bench players in this one and to avoid veterans like Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler. The other thing that we can do though is to project a very high-scoring game. Look no further than the 4th quarter of last night’s game against Toronto where the teams combined for 73 points — when teams get fatigued, the defense is the first thing that suffers.
Elite Plays
Brandon Wright — Listed as a center on FanDuel, Wright is a must-play for me in my cash game lineups. Both Nowitzki and Chandler are veterans that will see reduced minutes tonight leading to an increase in minutes for Wright. Using previous back ends of back-to-backs as a guide, we can safely project 24 minutes for Wright and his point per minute ratio would net him around 25 points. The pace of this game and the matchup make me comfortable using Wright in GPP’s also.
Secondary Plays
Devin Harris / J.J. Barea — Of course this is assuming that Raymond Felton and Jameer Nelson both will remain sidelined, but as long as they are, Harris and Barea should be on your radar. Based on volatility, you should favor Harris in cash games and Barea in GPP’s, though pairing them in cash games would not be crazy either on a smallish slate like this.
Monta Ellis — For a game that will be fast-paced with little defense, Ellis fits right in. With the Mavs as such big favorites, risking Ellis is cash games is not recommended, but coming off of a 30 point game last night, the upside is certainly there in GPP’s.
Philadelphia
The 76ers are now 0-15 and still searching for their first win. They score the fewest points in the league despite playing at the third-highest pace. They miss a ton of shots and are the worst rebounding team in the league. Tony Wroten will miss some time with a sprained knee, and Hollis Thompson will fill in for him tonight. It will be interesting to see who gets the backup point guard minutes with Wroten out. Alexey Shved is the only natural point guard on the bench but has been getting DNP-CD’s lately.
Elite Plays
Michael Carter-Williams — Wroten leaves a large scoring void that will need to be filled. We saw MCW carry the 76ers offensively in stretches last year and this projects to be a game for him to return to that output. Having not played since Wednesday, Carter-Williams should be ready to handle a season-high in minutes against Dallas tonight if needed. His price across the industry limits the exposure that you can have to him, but there are few players tonight with his upside.
Secondary Plays
Alexey Shved — While we can’t project more than 20 minutes for Shved even with the Wroten injury, we’ve seen that he can have productive fantasy games in limited minutes. He’s basically going to get whatever minutes that Carter-Williams can’t handle, and he should be able to get some shots off with no legitimate scorer on the floor with him. Let me stress that this is a very risky pick due to the lack of minutes, so proceed with caution.
Hollis Thompson — Thompson might end up being a fairly popular pick tonight since he’s near min-price and in the starting lineup. For me, he’s nowhere near a must-play. The problem is that there’s not very much upside. He’s one of the lowest point-per-minute players in the league at 27.2 minutes and 17 DK points per game. It’s very likely that he’ll get 30+ minutes and land right around value, so you just need to decide if you’re willing to sacrifice the upside.
New Orleans at Washington
- Vegas Line – Washington -4.5, 201 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Rivers-Evans-Davis-Asik
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Humphries-Gortat
| New Orleans | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.3 | Team Proj. | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.05 | Team Pace | 96.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jrue Holiday | Austin Rivers | Tyreke Evans | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Kris Humphries | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 14 | 23 | 6 | 3 | Opp. Season | 14 | 7 | 30 | 15 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 23 | 26 | 21 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 18 | |
New Orleans
The Pelicans have had a hard time finding someone to fill in for Eric Gordon. They started with Darius Miller in the starting lineup against the Kings, but his spot was taken by Austin Rivers last night and Miller never entered the game. The problem for the Pelicans was that Rivers was no better, going 0-8 from the field and not providing value in any other area either. If Gordon decides to have surgery, the Pelicans are certainly going to be in the market for a good wing player in order to give them a shot at sneaking into the playoffs.
Elite Plays
Tyreke Evans — Evans has now put up two very good games in Gordon’s absence as he shoulders a little more of the offensive responsibility. He’s struggled finishing at the rim this year, which is exactly what his game relies on. We will see his field goal percentage rise from the 41% that it is sitting at now and his last two games suggest that we may be in the middle of that upswing. The matchup is slightly better if Austin Rivers continues to start at shooting guard since Evans would be at small forward facing Paul Pierce.
Secondary Plays
Anthony Davis — We’ve seen recently that the high price tag of Anthony Davis makes it viable to fade him in cash games. On DK when it’s very unlikely that a guy can reach a 7x multiple, you can feel safe fading him. The attractive thing about Davis even at his current price is his floor, and that’s why you’ll continue to see him on rosters. However, Washington has done well against big men this year and Davis scores much better at home, making him a secondary play at best tonight.
Washington
With the return of Bradley Beal to the starting lineup last game and the possible returns of Nene Hilario and Martell Webster soon, the Wizards are nearing full strength. Even with injury issues, the Wizards have posted the second-best record in the East. The team’s above-average pace is a little deceptive, as most of the starters are more comfortable running offensive sets rather than playing up-tempo in transition, but the one man fast break known as John Wall can contribute to the game turning into a track meet at times.
Elite Plays
John Wall — Wall is always worth a look at home since he averages 50.5 DK points there compared to 35.3 on the road. Out of all of the elite high-priced options tonight, Wall is my favorite. Roster construction and value at the point guard position always seem to contribute towards me not having as many shares of Wall as I had intended to at the start of the day. @DraftCheat made a very good point yesterday on GrindersLive though: You’re better off to start building your lineup with guys that you want to target and then filling your value plays in from there instead of being afraid to miss out on the value plays, starting with them, and then taking whatever high-priced options fit.
Secondary Plays
Bradley Beal — Beal is going to get it rolling soon here. The return to the starting lineup helps and the increase in minutes should follow shortly also. If you want to wait to roster him until he starts putting up better numbers, you’re going to be too late. On DK the $6,000 price is more than fair. Again, assuming Rivers starts, the matchup doesn’t get much better.
Charlotte at Atlanta
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -7, 199 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Stephenson-Zeller-Jefferson
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Charlotte | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.0 | Team Proj. | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.62 | Team Pace | 95.82 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Lance Stephenson | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 22 | 13 | 24 | 4 | Opp. Season | 29 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 8 | 18 | 17 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 5 | 24 | 9 | 15 | |
Charlotte
Last night the Hornets were able to control the pace of the game and looked on track to win if not for a big Warriors comeback led by Maurice Speights. Facing the Hawks tonight, they shouldn’t have a problem keeping the pace even slower. Brian Roberts and Cody Zeller are value plays that have emerged recently and will be popular plays again tonight if Gary Neal and Marvin Williams remain sidelined. Their weakness on defense is typically defending point guards, and Stephen Curry’s lack of success last night was not due to good defense from Charlotte.
Elite Plays
Cody Zeller — Regardless of whether or not Marvin Williams plays, Zeller is going to be a near must-play value guy for me on FanDuel. The minutes have been there recently because it’s too hard to take him off the court. He doesn’t need his number called in order to put up points since he gets a lot of hustle points off rebounds and loose balls. Atlanta is ranked 26th in the league against power forwards.
Secondary Plays
Brian Roberts — Roberts is providing a great offensive spark off the bench for the Hornets. His shot is falling from everywhere on the court, and when shooters are hot, it’s a good idea to roster them.
Atlanta
Al Horford has had a disappointing start to the season, but contributions from elsewhere have netted the Hawks one of the best records in the Eastern Conference. They score the third-most points in the East and also give up the third-most. Jeff Teague has been a borderline All-Star and Paul Millsap continues to perform at a very high level. Thabo Sefolosha has been dealing with an illness, but DeMarre Carroll has returned strongly by consistently putting up 20+ fantasy point games.
Elite Plays
Jeff Teague — Teague’s last four games have been incredible and I actually don’t think there’s been a sneakier good four game stretch for anyone in the NBA so far this year. During that stretch, he’s averaging 45.6 DK points per game at $7,000. Nobody is talking about him, he was 7.7% owned in the DraftKings Crossover last night (the winning team had him), and tonight he’s facing a team ranked in the bottom three against point guards. It would be criminal for his ownership percentage to be below 10% again tonight.
Secondary Plays
DeMarre Carroll — Carroll has shown incredible consistency all season. If you’re willing to sacrifice upside in order to plug in 20-25 points, then Carroll is your guy.
Indiana at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -9.5, 196 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Sloan-Stuckey-Hill-West-Mahinmi
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Marion-James-Love-Thompson
| Indiana | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.3 | Team Proj. | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.99 | Team Pace | 95.35 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Donald Sloan | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Ian Mahinmi | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | Shawn Marion | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 19 | 11 | 23 | 21 | Opp. Season | 15 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 21 | 11 | 25 | 5 | |
Indiana
The Pacers have to feel good about their chances to build some momentum here with David West’s return and Roy Hibbert returning soon also. C.J. Watson gives the team some much needed depth at guard and guys like Chris Copeland and C.J. Miles should see their efficiency improve as they become more complimentary players.
Elite Plays
Rodney Stuckey — Stuckey was a guy that I made a note of early in the season to roster once he started seeing his minutes increase. Well, we’ve reached that point, and I’ve been plugging him in as the first guy in my lineup the last few games now. Stuckey demands the ball to be in his hands and he is constantly driving towards the basket and creating. He’s been so much of a threat on offense that Kawhi Leonard was called upon to shut him down the other night. David West will eat into his usage rate a little bit, but West’s minutes should be limited for now.
Secondary Plays
Lavoy Allen — On the back end of a back-to-back returning from injury, we’re unlikely to see West’s minutes get much higher than 20. If Hibbert remains sidelined too, then it’s worth gambling on Allen here. He doesn’t need a lot of minutes to be productive, but he did see 28 minutes even with the return of West last night. Cleveland really struggles against bigs, and Allen would be the guy that I’m most comfortable with if you want exposure to that matchup.
Cleveland
The Cavs broke their streak of four losses in a row with a couple wins at home against the Magic and the Wizards. LeBron James dominated those games in every facet and the games were never even really close. There has been speculation recently that Mike Miller could end up in the starting lineup soon in place of Shawn Marion, but it doesn’t appear that will happen yet. Anderson Varejao missed some practice time and is questionable to play. Tristan Thompson would likely be his replacement.
Elite Plays
LeBron James — I mentioned above that LeBron dominated the last two games and the games were never even really close. He had great fantasy production in both, so while the Cavs are expected to blow Indiana out here, I don’t think that should scare us off of James. Indiana ranks very highly at defending small forwards, but LeBron is arguably the most matchup-proof player in the game. The combination of the blowout risk and matchup will see his ownership percentage lower than it should be.
Secondary Plays
Anderson Varejao / Tristan Thompson — One of these guys will provide some nice salary cap relief on a smaller slate, it’s just a matter of which guy starts the game.
Houston at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -1, 192 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Johnson-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Black
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Sanders
| Houston | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 192 |  | Vegas Total | 192 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.37 | Team Pace | 95.76 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Nick Johnson | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Tarik Black | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | O.J. Mayo | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Larry Sanders | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 29 | Opp. Season | 1 | 13 | 10 | 19 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 7 | 25 | 8 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 23 | 16 | |
Houston
There have been plenty of value plays to be found on the Rockets this year due to the injuries that they’ve had to deal with. It doesn’t appear that Dwight Howard will play tonight and Isaiah Canaan and Patrick Beverley have already been ruled out, so again the Rockets will have high ownership. James Harden has been an extremely reliable staple to build lineups around, but will be looking to rebound from a disappointing game last night. Both the Rockets and Bucks play at similar slower paces.
Elite Plays
James Harden — Harden has been struggling with his shot, but a matchup against the 24th ranked team against shooting guards should fix that. It is hard to imagine his usage rate going even higher, but without their top two point guards, the Rockets will likely be forced to use Harden as a creator even more than usual. If you’re only going to roster one of the big three (Harden, James, Davis) tonight, price dictates that Harden should be the guy.
Secondary Plays
Troy Daniels / Nick Johnson — If one of these guys get the surprise start over Jason Terry then I’m willing to use them. I just don’t see the 37 year old Terry getting enough minutes to reach value even if he starts. If it is Terry that starts, than none of the three are worth the risk.
Milwaukee
The Bucks have been surprisingly competitive so far this season with a 10-7 record good enough for fourth in the Eastern Conference. They regularly score some of the lowest-scoring games in the NBA and that combined with the inconsistency in Jason Kidd’s rotation make their players very difficult to roster. Zaza Pachulia is out of the country and John Henson is expected to miss this game also, making guys like Larry Sanders tempting but risky.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Brandon Knight — It’s great news for Brandon Knight if Jason Terry starts, but either way he is going to have his way against the Rockets’ point guard platoon. Knight has struggled of late, which is why I’m listing him as a secondary play as opposed to an elite play, but his talent level far exceeds the salaries that he’s been assigned all year so far.