NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 9th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-09 18:36:27

All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article

Portland at Houston

Vegas Line – Houston -5.5, 213.5 Over/Under
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard

Portland

The Blazers and Rockets game also features a high total tonight. Both of these teams like to push the pace and are both ranked in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game. The Rockets have defended the PG and Center positions well this season thanks to the excellent defense of Patrick Beverley and Dwight Howard. Robin Lopez and Damian Lillard are both below average fantasy options here. Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum are both in play though, the Rockets are ranked 22nd and 19th against SG’s and SF’s this season.

LaMarcus Aldridge – Aldridge has a nice matchup against the Rockets who have surrendered the 4th most FP’s to PF’s this season. Aldridge is coming off of his best game since coming back from injury and doesn’t appear to be on any kind of minutes restriction.

Houston

Even though the Blazers are giving up 102.6 points per game this season, they have been very solid defensively against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s. The Blazers are ranked 12th or better in the season long DvP rankings and 10th or better over the last 15 days against those 3 positions. James Harden can’t be ruled out, but I think there are better options in his price range if you are looking to spend on a star player tonight.

Dwight Howard – Dwight has had the Blazers’ number this season. In three games against them, Dwight is averaging 28 points and 14 rebounds. The Blazers have not been great at defending Centers this season and with Harden in a tough matchup, look for the Blazers to go into Dwight often. Great upside play that will probably be under-owned.

Patrick Beverley – Beverley makes a great value play tonight against the Blazers. Not only will he be asked to play big minutes defending Lillard, but he has a great matchup as well. The Blazers have surrendered the 2nd most FP’s to PG’s this season.

Toronto at Minnesota

Vegas Line – Minnesota -4.5, 207 Over/Under
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic

Toronto

The Raptors are in a favorable position tonight against the Wolves, but the best fantasy play is dealing with a couple of injuries. If Kyle Lowry was at full strength, he would make a terrific play, but he is dealing with an ankle and a thumb injury. If you are thinking about taking him tonight, make sure to double-check that he is in the lineup.

DeMar DeRozan – DeRozan is the safer play tonight. He is around the same price range as Lowry and also has a great matchup. The Wolves are ranked 25th against the SG position this season and DeRozan should have another solid game offensively. He has topped 45 FP’s in 3 of his last 4 games too so he is coming into this game on a hot streak.

Minnesota

The Wolves are 4.5 point favorites tonight against a Raptors team that actually has a top-5 defense this season. The high total may lead you to believe that this is a solid matchup, but the defensive rankings say otherwise. The Raptors are holding their opponents to 97 points per game this season which is the 4th fewest in the NBA. Not only that, but the Raptors are ranked 14th or better against all five positions on the floor. All of the Wolves’ starters are in less than favorable matchups and should only be taken if they are under-priced on the site that you are playing on.

Indiana at Dallas

Vegas Line – Even Spread, 197 Over/Under
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

Indiana

This game favors the Pacers much more than it does the Mavericks. The Mavericks play at an above average pace and are giving up 102.3 points per game to their opponents this season. That leaves the Pacers with a solid matchup tonight. The Pacers will be without C.J. Watson again tonight so look for George Hill to see big minutes and for both Evan Turner and Lance Stephenson to handle the ball at times as well.

David West – The Mavs have surrendered the most FP’s in the league to opposing PF’s over the last 15 days. West often flies under the radar because of the team that he plays on and the fact that his salary is a bit more than we’d like to pay for him, but he has actually been a very productive fantasy player this season. He should have a solid outing against Dirk tonight.

Lance Stephenson – Stephenson is still making incredible plays, he just seems to be making them on a less frequent basis these days. Evan Turner could be a part of the reason, but Stephenson is still playing around 40 minutes in close games. I like his matchup against the smaller Monta tonight.

Dallas

The Mavericks matchup is actually not too terrible tonight. I typically like to avoid all players against the Pacers, but they Pacers’ defense has not been the same over the past two weeks. They are giving up over 100 points per game during that stretch and are ranked 16th or worse against PG’s, SG’s, and PF’s. While I don’t mind the matchup, I still don’t think I will be paying up for Monta Ellis. Dirk Nowitizki is probably the safest play here, but David Lee is a better option at a similar price point.

Phoenix at Golden State

Vegas Line – Golden State -7.5, 213 Over/Under
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Len
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut

Phoenix

Eric Bledsoe is nearing a return for the Suns and it sounds like there is an outside chance that it could come tonight against the Suns. When Bledsoe does return, it will take a few games to get the rotation hammered out as well as seeing how it will impact the fantasy value of both Goran Dragic and Gerald Green. Even though this game is expected to be high scoring, this is a tough matchup for the Suns. The Warriors own a top-7 defense and are ranked 13th or better against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Golden State

The Warriors have a favorable matchup against the Suns who are giving up 102.7 points per game. This should be a high scoring game and you can make a case for all starters. My favorite two here are Andre Iguodala and David Lee. Iguodala’s price is depressed across the industry and he should be able to easily top 20 FP’s here. It’s a great time to buy low on him. Lee also makes a solid play, the Suns are ranked 25th against PF’s over the last 15 days and his price has been down since making his return to the lineup.