NBA Grind Down: Thursday, April 30th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Chicago at Milwaukee – 7:00 PM ET
- Vegas Line – Chicago -3.5, 187.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
| Chicago | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 187.5 |  | Vegas Total | 187.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 92.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.65 | Team Pace | 95.65 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 7 | 21 | 16 | 15 | Opp. Season | 26 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 3 | 14 | |
Chicago
After taking the first three games of the series, the Bulls have lost each of their last two and are now in a tricky situation, as the Bucks have a chance to force a Game 7. The Bulls are listed as 3.5-point favorites with the total for the game set at 187.5 points. The Bucks typically aren’t the best matchup for fantasy production thanks to their stout defense, but with only two games on the schedule, there are a few Bulls’ players that are on my radar tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
Jimmy Butler (FanDuel: $9100, DraftKings: $8700 / MPG: 39 / Usage Rate: 21.7)
Butler had a rough shooting night from the floor in Game 5, but he still managed to post 49 fantasy points. He has now averaged 43 fantasy points in 44 minutes of action per game during this series. He’s getting it done on both ends of the floor and the Bulls will look to lean on him offensively again tonight.
Derrick Rose (FD: $7700, DK: $7400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 30.9)
After looking like the Rose of old in Games 1-3, Rose has come back to Earth with his last two outings. He has been a turnover machine in this series and he’ll look to fix that in a pivotal Game 6 in Milwaukee. We have seen the upside, now we just need him to increase his floor. Dollar for dollar, I have Rose ranked right behind Chris Paul in terms of the fantasy option at point guard.
Joakim Noah (FD: $6500, DK: $6100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 13.7)
Noah’s minutes and production have both been inconsistent during this series, but he is coming off of a stellar Game 5 performance where he had 10 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, and 3 blocks. His price is still very cheap across the industry and with limited options at center, he’s an easy plug for cash games.
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $8500, DK: $8800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.4)
Milwaukee
After looking like they were going to get swept, the Bucks have bounced back nicely with big wins in Games 4 and 5. If they can pick up another win tonight at home, they would force a winner-take-all Game 7. The Bucks are only 3.5-point underdogs tonight and they should be fired up to play in front of their home crowd.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Points Allowed Per Game: 98 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Khris Middleton (FD: $6700, DK: $6100 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.8)
Middleton has been the most consistent source of fantasy production on the Bucks. He has scored at least 31 fantasy points in four of the first five games in this series and his price has yet to change much. He should see close to 40 minutes tonight in a must-win game against the Bulls. He’s an elite shooting guard option on DraftKings and an elite small forward option on FanDuel.
John Henson (FD: $4900, DK: $5200 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 18.7)
Henson has been a spark plug off the Bucks’ bench in this series. Through the first five games, he is averaging 26 fantasy points in 27 minutes per contest. He has scored at least 20 fantasy points in all five games and he’s actually been a very reliable source of value here in the first round of the playoffs.
Secondary Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $7200, DK: $6400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6800, DK: $6100 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
O.J. Mayo (FD: $4200, DK: $4700 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
L.A. Clippers at San Antonio – 9:30 PM ET
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -5.5, 205.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| L.A. Clippers | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.5 |  | Vegas Total | 205.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.0 | Team Proj. | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.38 | Team Pace | 97.38 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 11 | Opp. Season | 2 | 15 | 29 | 18 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | ||||||
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers lost a tough game at home the other night to fall behind 3-2 in this series. They now need to pick up another win in San Antonio to force a Game 7. The Clippers are listed as 5.5-point underdogs tonight with their team total set at 100 points. This should be a close, high-scoring game that should offer more fantasy production than the Bulls/Bucks game.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Blake Griffin (FD: $11600, DK: $10300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Even at his elevated price point, Griffin is a very risky fade in cash games. He has been tremendous in this series, averaging 53 fantasy points per game. In a win-or-go-home Game 5, Griffin should see 40+ minutes of action tonight against a Spurs’ team that has had no answer for him in this series. He has scored at least 54 fantasy points in four of the first five games and he has a good chance to reach that mark again tonight.
Chris Paul (FD: $10400, DK: $9800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.6)
Paul’s salary is being dragged down by his 14-fantasy point outing in Game 3 of this series. If you exclude that outlier, he has averaged 47 fantasy point in the other four games of the series. Paul always seems to show up in big games and you can’t get much bigger than a must-win Game 6 against the defending-champion Spurs. If I’m paying up for a point guard tonight, I’d rather have Paul over Derrick Rose.
J.J. Redick (FD: $4700, DK: $4900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
Redick has been quiet in this series, but he is still averaging 39 minutes per game. I was expecting a breakout performance from him in at least one game and tonight may be his final chance. His price is under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he’s a rare source of value in tonight’s small two-game slate.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $9000, DK: $8000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
Jamal Crawford (FD: $4200, DK: $4200 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 28.2)
San Antonio
The Spurs picked up a huge win in Los Angeles in Game 5 and they now have a chance to close out the Clippers in Game 6. It’s sad that one of these teams has to exit the playoffs this early, as they are two of the better teams in the NBA. The Spurs have the highest team total of the night and the usual suspects are all in play here in Game 6.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8500, DK: $8700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 23)
Leonard had a quiet outing in Game 5, yet he still finished with 31 fantasy points. He is the premier play at small forward tonight, as the position is extremely limited. He will likely see 40+ minutes of action tonight against a Clippers’ defense that has struggled against small forwards all season. With Duncan’s price up, Leonard is the one Spurs’ player that I find myself paying up for tonight in Game 6.
Tim Duncan (FD: $9500, DK: $8500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 22.4)
Duncan’s price took a huge leap after his 47-fantasy point outing in Game 5. He is now $9,500 on FanDuel and $8,500 on DraftKings. The price is justified though, as he has topped the 47-fantasy point mark three times in the first five games of the series. He’s still an elite play tonight, but if you are only paying up for one power forward tonight, Griffin is the better option of the two.
Boris Diaw (FD: $5000, DK: $5200 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 18.1)
Diaw got into foul trouble in Game 5, which is why he played only 24 minutes. He should see closer to 30 minutes tonight in Game 6. He has been very productive in this series, scoring at least 19 fantasy points in each of the first five games. His price is affordable and he makes a great option to pair with one of the premier plays at power forward (Griffin or Duncan).
Secondary Plays
Tony Parker (FD: $4900, DK: $5200 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Danny Green (FD: $4200, DK: $4000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
Patty Mills (FD: $3800, DK: $3300 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 20.7)